[tomder55]

So Europe won't defend their sea lanes . They won't collectively defend their continent without US providing the bulk of the security and $$$$$$$$$$$$. And the US no longer has the means to take up the mantle.

What we need then is an incident to drag the US kicking and screaming back to save civilization again ,
Lithuania missing US soldiers search mission facing treacherous conditions: Army

[tomder55]

So Europe won't defend their sea lanes . They won't collectively defend their continent without US providing the bulk of the security and $$$$$$$$$$$$. And the US no longer has the means to take up the mantle.

What we need then is an incident to drag the US kicking and screaming back to save civilization again ,
Lithuania missing US soldiers search mission facing treacherous conditions: Army

Macron wants to commit a "reassurance force " to Ukraine if a cease fire deal is made. But not all Euro nations are on board
Europeans Vow to Stand by Ukraine, but Disagree Over Force Proposal - The New York Times

What would Europe need to go it alone ?

Start by actually spending on defense to the levels agreed to by NATO.
They need to add a minimum of a 300,000 military and greatly expand their weaponry . They need to greatly expand their nuclear weapon capability .

Macron and Starmer may be on board. The rest ? Not so much Mostly they talk a good game.

[tomder55]

Some 40 nations are in some form of violent conflict around the world.

Countries Currently at War / Countries at War 2025

Others like the US and China feed the grist to the mill. The world is one Franz Ferdinand assassination like spark away .

Blast in one of Vladimir Putin's official limousines triggers fresh assassination concerns - The Economic Times

[jlisenbe]

Part of an article I read this morning. It makes Trump sound a great deal more sensible.

Yet the West, including Australia, fully expect to rely on the USA for our very survival.

If the world turns bad (which will happen - only a question of time), then the whole West, without America, is toast.

So, you may ask - if we're not very aligned ideologically, then it must be that we bring something to the party militarily?

Well, no... actually... we don't matter that much militarily.

The USA has about 470 ships in its navy, including 11 aircraft carriers, 69 submarines, 75 destroyers... plus 110 new ships in the pipeline.

Australia has about 30, including 3 destroyers, 7 frigates and 7 outdated submarines. The UK does a little better, with about 60.

Meanwhile, the US has over 14,000 military aircraft. A staggering number.

Australia has 252 military aircraft. The UK has 556.

The US army has just shy of 1,000,000 uniformed personnel in its military. Australia has about 45,000.

The USA spends 3.4% ($968 billion) of its GDP on defence. Australia spends 2% ($36.4 billion). The US spends as much as the next 15 largest military-spending countries (including China) combined.

The USA has a fighting culture. The men shoot things (a lot) and hunt things, the veterans get favoured in everything from parking spots to boarding planes. A uniformed young man is thanked in the street a dozen times a day.

"Oh, the Americans and their guns!" we say, in our smug way. Yes, they have a warrior culture. We do not. We don't have to, because we're a leech on theirs.

How many young British men are willing to fight for their country? Now ask the same regarding young American men. The difference is about as wide as it could be.

Militarily, we don't offer squat.

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[tomder55]

The Times article made it clear that we supply the weapons , suggest targets and supply the satellite targeting . The weapons we give Ukraine can't work otherwise The only thing we don't do is push the button and bring back the body bags.

Clueless Joe and NATO decided that they could give enough to Ukraine to not lose so that Russia could slow bleed . Every bomb that drops in Russia has a 'Made in the USA ' or ' Made in the EU 'stamp.

Germany is all in now even though they could not keep 20 jets in the air at the same time. Maybe they want Putin to die of laughter . They are going to deploy on Russia's border which must really thrill Moscow . How many Russians died defending the motherland the last time the Germans were on the Russian border ?

[tomder55]

I would hate to be a soldier on either side fighting the Ukraine war. They are the avatar in a blood thirsty video game played by drone operators . Soldiers that once dreaded the artillery round now see them as their safest bet . What really scares them is the hand held Radio Shack like toy that can drop precision strikes on their heads .

Drones, not the big, heavy artillery that the war was once known for, inflict about 70 percent of all Russian and Ukrainian casualties, said Roman Kostenko, the chairman of the defense and intelligence committee in Ukraine’s Parliament. In some battles, they cause even more — up to 80 percent of deaths and injuries, commanders say.

Drones Now Rule the Battlefield in the Ukraine-Russia War - The New York Times

The trenches that cut scars across hundreds of miles of the front are still essential for defense, but today most soldiers die or lose limbs to remote-controlled aircraft rigged with explosives, many of them lightly modified hobby models. Drone pilots, in the safety of bunkers or hidden positions in tree lines, attack with joysticks and video screens, often miles from the fighting.
Speeding cars or trucks no longer provide protection from faster-flying drones. Soldiers hike for miles, ducking into cover, through drone-infested territory too dangerous for jeeps, armored personnel carriers or tanks. Soldiers say it has become strangely personal, as buzzing robots hunt specific cars or even individual soldiers.
It is, they say, a feeling of a thousand snipers in the sky.

Reminder ; the Spanish Civil War was the laboratory and testing ground for weapons and tactics used in WWII

[tomder55]

India and Pakistan are on the verge of a major war. This comes a week after terrorists attacked Indian tourists in Kashmir killing 26

Gunmen opened fire on sightseers in a popular travel destination in the mountainous destination of Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir.At least 25 Indian citizens and one Nepali national were killed in the massacre, which unfolded in a valley only accessible by foot or on horseback.Eyewitnesses described scenes of horror as the gunmen approached, opening fire on tourists from close range.

What happened in Pahalgam and why is the attack escalating India-Pakistan tensions? | CNN

Since then there have been reprisals against Muslim Kashmiris by India citizens . India accuses Pakistan of supporting terrorists activities in Kashmir . One report claims the assailants were on loan from the Pakistan Army.

India is conducting anti-terrorists operations. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged to pursue the attackers to “the ends of the earth” and said that those who planned and carried it out “will be punished beyond their imagination”.

Now Pakistan says it has credible evidence that India will attack.



Pakistan claims 'credible intelligence' India is planning an imminent military strike

[tomder55]

The Houthis launched a drone attack on Carrier USS Truman. While making a hard turn to evade the drones an FA18 Hornet jet slid off the deck into the sea.

Enough of this . Make Iran pay for any Houthis attack going forward.

(1) Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth on X: "Message to IRAN: We see your LETHAL support to The Houthis. We know exactly what you are doing. You know very well what the U.S. Military is capable of — and you were warned. You will pay the CONSEQUENCE at the time and place of our choosing." / X

[tomder55]

The India -Pakistan war is on .

Live updates: India, Pakistan on brink of war, India attack in wake of Kashmir massacre | CNN
Both nations have at least 170 nukes each . 300 nukes detonated would bring on a nuclear winter that would end most human life on Earth.

[tomder55]

India is using water as a weapon . They have opened gates of the Salal Dam on the Chenab River ;threatening to flood Pakistan agricultural land down river at a time during sowing season.
Operation Sindoor: How India Can Use Its 'Water Weapon' in J&K Against Pakistan | Times Now

[tomder55]

It is hard to decipher various and conflicting claims made by India and Pakistan. But apparently both sides are getting top of the line jets being downed in the fight. These include both Paki US made F16s and Indian French-made Rafale and Mirage jets

The Pakis have used Chinese made radar guided PL15 air to air missiles .

[tomder55]

There is a cease fire in place that it appears VP Vance brokered with the help of Sec State Rubio .

So far it is sorta holding as both sides accuse the other of violations .

This brief war has given us a glimpse of peer powers duking it out for air superiority using some of the best air combat weapons available.

Alarming is that Chinese made jets and air to air missiles have done well .

One U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said there was high confidence that Pakistan had used the Chinese-made J-10 aircraft to launch air-to-air missiles against Indian fighter jets - bringing down at least two.
Another official said at least one Indian jet that was shot down was a French-made Rafale fighter aircraft.
Both officials said Pakistan's F-16 aircraft, made by Lockheed Martin were not used in the shootdown.

Exclusive: Pakistan's Chinese-made jet brought down two Indian fighter aircraft, US officials say | Reuters

Military experts get the chance to evaluate the performance and plan for future combat against the weapons especially the Chinese PL15 missile that appears to have beyond visual range .

Dassault ;the maker of the Rafale is seeing it's stock drop with every downed jet.
Dassault shares drop after reports of Pakistan shooting down India's Rafale jets

[tomder55]

China gave Pakistan targeting support against India

From Space with Malice: China’s Satellites Tipped the Balance in India-Pakistan War

[tomder55]

In this hour IAEA has found that Iran is in violation of it's non-proliferations.
IAEA Board Declares Iran in Breach of Non-Proliferation Obligations

This comes after President Trump announced that non-essential personnel will be evacuated from US embassies and missions in the Middle East.
U.S. Evacuates Personnel From Middle East Amid Tensions With Iran | TIME

He anticipates that Israel is going to take imminent action against the Iran enrichment efforts .

Israel is poised to launch operation on Iran, multiple sources tell CBS News - CBS News

[tomder55]

Israel is doing the hard work the US should've been doing since 1979. They have been at war with us since then and countless numbers of American casualties have resulted in our pin prick response to their attacks .

Israel has some specific goals in this war. Although regime change would be the ideal ;what is not acceptable is their regime having nuclear weapons. They have made it clear that their goal is the destruction of Israel.

They are not rational actors . The idea of deterrence or mutual assured destruction is not on the table. .
The longer the campaign takes ;the more loss of lives on both sides and a greater chance Iran achieves it's nuclear ambitions.

Israel has damaged and degraded some of their most important sites .The one that Israel will have difficulty taking down is their most important one.
Their Fordow facility is buried deep under a mountain The enriched uranium there is believed to be enough to produce several bombs. This is the cite they tried to hide from the IAEA . It is also locate near the "holy " city of Qom. Their Quds forces are stationed there and they have installed S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems around the plant.

Israeli attacks so far have taken out some surface structures . But they don't have the means to penetrate deep into the mountain to take out the nukes. They have neither the bunker buster /MOAB type weapons or the heavy bombers to deliver them.

In Ukraine we deliver weapons to delay the war. In this war US weapons could deliver the blows necessary to end it.

Trump like previous Presidents believes that negotiations could be the way to end it. He thinks the conflict will force Iran to the table. But that just serves their end.
They cancelled talks with the US and that is probably why Israel got the green light to attack. But negotiations serve their purpose. Forcing them to the table just delays their goals .It does not end them.

I would prefer regime change . But short of that they need to be made aware that they will never have nuclear weapons to use against any of their enemies.

[tomder55]

....and at some point we have to make it clear they can't send assassins into the US to kill politicians they don't like . They can't attack US ships over 300 times as their proxies the Houthis did . They can't partner with the Chinese to attack us .
Attacks on US bases during the Gaza war - Wikipedia

You don't get to kill our troops on the ground or on the seas .
There are thousands of US troops that they killed . They built the IEDs and EFPs that their proxies used to kill and maim US troops in Iraq.

How Many US Troops Were Killed By Iranian IEDs in Iraq? - Defense One

Their proxies have targeted US bases with impunity . (170 since the October 7 sneak attack on Israel)

Attacks on US bases during the Gaza war - Wikipedia


And this was just a recent accounting . The Iran war against the US is ongoing. We just won't admit it . Even Trump speaks of a negotiated end to their nuke program when it should be clear that they violated every deal they have ever made .