Ask Me Help Desk - WWIII in the shadows

That the world is dividing into a 21st century version of Allies V Axis nations is no secret . China /Russia /North Korea /Iran and a host of other bad actors on one side . The US /EU/India (maybe) /Japan /Australia and a host of other nations on the other side.

In Beijing, Xi and Putin left no question of their close alignment in a divided world | CNN

China Reaches out to Russia, North Korea as US Cements Trilateral Partnership With Japan, Philippines – The Diplomat

The Axis of Upheaval: How America’s Adversaries Are Uniting to Overturn the Global Order (foreignaffairs.com)

America, Australia, UK expand military tech, information sharing in Indo-Pacific region | Fortune Asia

Suspicious of China, Philippines Expands US Military Presence (voanews.com)

Japan-U.S. Extended Deterrence Dialogue | Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan (mofa.go.jp)

What is not as well reported is that both sides have been shaping the battlefield already.

This is being done with cyber as well as direct attacks .

We may deny it all we want to ;but the other side doesn't even try to pretend according to 'The Economist' .

"Germany arrested two German-Russian dual nationals on suspicion of plotting attacks on American military facilities and other targets on behalf of the GRU, Russia's military intelligence agency. Poland arrested a man who was preparing to pass the GRU information on Rzeszow airport, the most important hub for military aid to Ukraine. Britain charged several men over an earlier arson attack in March on a Ukrainian-owned logistics firm in London whose Spanish depot was also targeted."

Russia is ramping up sabotage across Europe (economist.com)

At the Cyber-UK Conference Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ.....the equivalent of the US National Security Agency NSA ) Director Anne Keast-Butler said

"Before, Russia simply created the right environments for these groups to operate, but now they are nurturing and inspiring these non-state cyber actors in some cases seemingly coordinating physical attacks against the West."

She also called out China

Quote:

“Russia and Iran pose immediate threats. But China is the epoch-defining challenge,” Keast-Butler said.
“We now devote more resource to China than any other single mission,” she told the CyberUK conference in Birmingham. “Through their coercive and destabilizing actions, the PRC (People’s Republic of China) poses a significant risk to international norms and values.
“In cyberspace, we believe that the PRC’s irresponsible actions weaken the security of the internet for all. China has built an advanced set of cyber capabilities and is taking advantage of a growing commercial ecosystem of hacking outfits and data brokers at its disposal.”

China an ‘epoch-defining challenge,’ new UK spy boss warns – POLITICO

FBI Director Chris Wray issued similar warnings

"The PRC [People's Republic of China] has made it clear that it considers every sector that makes our society run as fair game in its bid to dominate on the world stage, and that its plan is to land low blows against civilian infrastructure to try to induce panic and break America's will to resist,"

Wray: Chinese Government Poses 'Broad and Unrelenting' Threat to U.S. Critical Infrastructure — FBI

It takes two to tango ;and the west had done it's share of covert mischief .

Quote:

As Russian troops press ahead with a grinding campaign to seize eastern Ukraine, the nation’s ability to resist the onslaught depends more than ever on help from the United States and its allies — including a stealthy network of commandos and spies rushing to provide weapons, intelligence and training, according to U.S. and European officials.
Much of this work happens outside Ukraine, at bases in Germany, France and Britain, for example. But even as the Biden administration has declared it will not deploy American troops to Ukraine, some C.I.A. personnel have continued to operate in the country secretly, mostly in the capital, Kyiv, directing much of the vast amounts of intelligence the United States is sharing with Ukrainian forces, according to current and former officials.

Commando Network Coordinates Flow of Weapons in Ukraine, Officials Say - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

The campaign involves long standing sleeper cells that the allied spy service has activated to hinder Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine by waging a secret war behind Russian lines.

Quote:

Years in the planning, the campaign is responsible for many of the unexplained explosions and other mishaps that have befallen the Russian military industrial complex since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February, according to three former U.S. intelligence officials, two former U.S. military officials and a U.S. person who has been briefed on the campaign. The former officials declined to identify specific targets for the CIA-directed campaign, but railway bridges, fuel depots and power plants in Russia have all been damaged in unexplained incidents since the Kremlin launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February.

The CIA is using a European NATO ally’s spy service to conduct a covert sabotage campaign inside Russia under the agency’s direction, according to former U.S. intelligence and military officials. | Jack Murphy (archive.org)

Who destroyed Nord Stream pipelines ? It could be anyone ;but Russia sabotaging it sounds absurd. As noted before Seymore Hersh pointed the finger at the US . The Washington Compost playing cover blames it on a rogue Ukraine officer .

Ukrainian military officer coordinated Nord Stream pipeline attack that shocked and mystified the West - The Washington Post

Russia invaded Ukraine with limited goals . But now Russia believes that they are at war with the west .

Kremlin, in change of language, says Russia is 'at war' due to West's role in Ukraine | Reuters

We are not yet in the 'find a safe place in your basement to bend over and kiss your a$$ goodby' mode yet. But when the grid gets disrupted ;or that wild fire mysteriously ignites ; or barges suddenly start striking bridges it may not be a coincidence .

Ship that struck Baltimore bridge had 4 blackouts before disaster | AP News

Barge hits bridge in Texas, causing oil spill – NBC 5 Dallas-Fort Worth (nbcdfw.com)

Just when we need a Churchill or a Reagan, we are now facing an election between Trump and Biden. One could certainly suspect that God has withdrawn His blessing from our country.

Here we are several hours later, and still no news concerning the outcome. Strange.

As I understand it, it is now being reported that there are no survivors at the crash site.

yes Iran state media confirms this

Iran's President Raisi dead in helicopter crash, Iranian state media reports (msn.com)

It could be weather related . But this comes in the backdrop that Raisi was returning from Azerbaijan.

Reports say that things were cooling down from a 2 year border crisis that saw military drills conducted on both sides of the border .

January 27 of last year the Azerbaijan embassy in Iran was terror attacked . A gunman entered the embassy and opened fire with an AK . The embassy was recently reopened

Going deeper ; Azerbaijan is a pro western secular state . They are also allied with Israel and provide oil to them .Israel provides weapons to them and the weapons helped them retake the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region from Armenia.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...-Karabakh2.png

Part of traditional Azerbaijan is inside the Iran territory .Ethnic Azerbaijanis are treated as second class citizens in Iran.

And of course Azerbaijan sits smack in the middle of proposed pipelines from the Caspian Sea to Europe that would bypass Russia and Iran.

It is a very complex geopolitical situation .
So yeah the weather may have been the only factor .

US UN Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield stood for a moment of silence with the rest of the UN Security Council in memory of that a&& wipe murdering scumbag Ebrahim Raisi aka the butcher of Tehran. Disgusting ! Any decent person would've given a standing ovation.

This would be a good time for our nation to recommit our support for the dissidents in Iran . We blew our chances a few times ;the last one being when Iran erupted in protests after Mahsa Amini was arrested and murdered for not wearing her hijab correctly in 2022

What you did not hear about it from the compliant press ?

Clueless Joe paid lip service to it while speaking about Ukraine and climate change at the UN September 2022

"the brave citizens and the brave women who right now are demonstrating to secure their basic rights”

Remarks by President Biden Before the 77th Session of the United Nations General Assembly | The White House

America did not pay attention and I doubt will pay attention as again the Iranian people attempt to break free. No doubt the US will instead deliver pallets of $$ cash ;tribute in honor of the butcher of Tehran

We can help and maybe just maybe the American people would if they were made aware of the brave sacrifices ;especially Iranian women make and the risks they take .

Quote:

NATO has just concluded its largest military exercises since the start of the Cold War. From January to the end of May an estimated 90,000 troops took part in an extended demonstration of how NATO would respond against any Russian invasion of Lithuania via Belarus. The admission of Finland and Sweden to NATO has further strengthened this show of European unity.
Despite his extraordinary political situation at home, President Biden has walked a precarious line by continuing to seek adequate arms for Ukraine’s defence without triggering an escalation to direct NATO conflict with Russian troops.
When a Russian cruise missile crossed into Polish airspace as it did in March we saw the danger of just one misstep, miscalculation or incident of military overreach. Since the start of Russia’s war on Ukraine, Polish jet fighters have scrambled to their borders hundreds of times. The danger is ever present.
While President Vladimir Putin insists that he is not considering deploying nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war, he adds frequently that any direct conflict between US-led NATO troops and Russians fighting Ukraine would be a step closer to World War III. Putin has claimed that Russian forces have detected foreign soldiers speaking English and French, implying that NATO already has military personnel in that battlefield. France’s President Emmanuel Macron has said that he would not rule out deploying troops in Ukraine in the future.

The risks of world war III - Pearls and Irritations (johnmenadue.com)

WWIII is coming out of the shadows. Remember when Quid balked at sending long range ATACMS for fear that Ukraine will strike deep into Russia with them?

Well surprise surprise surprise !!!!....we sent HIMAR missiles to Ukraine and they are using them to strike deep into Russia .

US weapons used by Ukraine to strike inside Russia, official says | AP News

Next up US advisors on the front line.

US considers deploying extra military advisors to Ukraine as Russia looks set to ramp up offensives (yahoo.com)

Do we really think Russia would not hesitate to targeting US troops on the front line?

Some generals believe that we need to establish air superiority over Ukraine to protect our advisors.
US troops have gone to Finland for "exercises "
US Army Soldiers Begin Long-Distance Transit Across Nordic Region > U.S. Army Europe and Africa > Article View Press Release

Meanwhile there is increasing talk about NATO nations instituting conscription.

UK and Nato urged to consider conscription as world leaders gather in Kyiv to mark Ukraine war anniversary (yahoo.com)

Quid is in Normandy today . He will meet with Zelensky in the coming days telling him to be patient and wait until after the US November election.

NATO will drag the US in. Slovakia PM Robert Fico was pumped with 5 bullets because he dared let the cat out of the bag.

February 26

Slovak PM says EU, NATO members weighing sending troops to Ukraine – POLITICO

May 15

Robert Fico: Slovakia’s prime minister shot multiple times in ‘politically motivated’ attack | CNN

Today

Slovakia PM Fico says he was targeted for Ukraine views, in first speech since assassination attempt (nbcnews.com)

Putin will respond.
He warned that he will send long range missiles to our neighborhood.
His fleet will commence military exercises in our hemisphere this summer

Russia is expected to begin naval, air exercises in Caribbean, U.S. official says - CBS News

Putin warns that Russia could provide long-range weapons to others to strike Western targets - ABC News (go.com)

Russian nuclear warships have docked in Cuba. The ships are The Admiral Gorshkov frigate, and the nuclear-powered submarine Kazan. Both are equip with hypersonic missiles.

Ever vigilant Florida residents were on alert

https://scontent.fcps3-1.fna.fbcdn.n...WA&oe=6670C664

The Russians Are Coming! The Russians Are Coming! (1966) - Under Arrest Scene (10/10) | Movieclips - YouTube

At the G7 meeting ,the leaders agreed to give Ukraine a "loan " of Russian frozen assets . Since the seizing of Russian money is against international law ,they couch this money grab as a loan from the interest of Russian assets they have frozen .

But as reckless as that was ; it does not compare to the bilateral defense pact Clueless Joe committed the US to .
He presumably will tie the hands of future administrations for the next decade in a deal that commits the US to the defense of Ukraine .

What does the Constitution say about that ?

Article 2 Sec 2 says

He shall have Power, by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, to make Treaties, provided two thirds of the Senators present concur;

Funny ; I don't recall the Senate ever ratifying such a deal. Calling it an agreement does not change the fact that it is a treaty.
It is couched in language that doesn't quite become a firm commitment to deploy US forces . But it certainly implies that .

Quote:

It is the policy of the Parties to work together to help deter and confront any future aggression against the territorial integrity of either Party. The security-related commitments in this Agreement are intended to support Ukraine’s efforts to win today’s war and deter future Russian military aggression. It is the policy of the United States to assist Ukraine in maintaining a credible defense and deterrence capability.
Any future aggression or threat of aggression against the sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of either Party would be a matter of grave concern to the other Party.
In the event of future armed attack or threat of armed attack against Ukraine, the Parties shall, at the request of either Party and in accordance with their respective laws, immediately meet, where possible within 24 hours, at the most senior levels to determine appropriate next steps and additional defense needs. The Parties may mutually decide to develop and implement additional appropriate defense and deterrent responses, including in the economic, military, and/or political realms. Such responses may include the imposition of economic and other costs on the aggressor state through steps that may include, among other things, potential sanctions or export controls. The Parties stand ready to share available and appropriate information and intelligence immediately in response to such an event, and to consult with signatory countries of the Joint Declaration of 2023 on additional, joint responses.

[/QUOTE]

Bilateral Security Agreement Between the United States of America and Ukraine | The White House

This comes in the wake of the US hitting Russia with more crippling sanctions.

US Treasury widens sanctions to curb Russia's war production | Reuters
This move halted trading of the Euro and US dollar on the Moscow market. Russia today has decided to end the US dollar as it's trade benchmark .

Russia adopts Chinese yuan-to-ruble as benchmark exchange rate after US sanctions force a further move away from the dollar (yahoo.com)

Flashback 1940-1941

Because of Japanese aggression in Indochina President Roosevelt formalized an agreement to assist China through "loans " and "lend -lease" .

In response Japan signed a tripartite treaty with Germany and Italy .

the US instituted crippling sanctions and embargos against Japan.

The US ramped up pressure with more sanctions and embargos.

United States freezes Japanese assets | July 26, 1941 | HISTORY

Throughout this diplomats of Japan and the US met to try to resolve the crisis .

But at some point Japan determined that the US was not serious about coming to an agreement and decided their only hope was a crippling first military strike at the US.

Japan attacked Pearl Harbor December 7,1941 4 months after the US hit them with economic warfare.

Clueless Joe is in reelect mode . That is the only reason I can see for their turning a blind eye to some of the recent events.

China has been using it's fleet in the South China sea to intimidate Philippines ;a nation closely aligned with the US. This includes deliberate bumping of resupply ships.

Quote:

The U.S. State Department called the incident the latest in a series of Chinese "provocations" to impede supplies from reaching Philippines personnel stationed at the BRP Sierra Madre, a Philippine vessel grounded at the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, site of repeated confrontations with China this past year.
"PRC vessels' dangerous and deliberate use of water cannons, ramming, blocking manoeuvres, and towing damaged Philippine vessels, endangered the lives of Philippine service members, is reckless, and threatens regional peace and stability," a State Department statement said.

Instead of supporting Israel Joe has been undermining both the effort to defeat Hamas but also giving a very weak response to Hezbollah which has been peppering Israel with missiles for some time ;and in response Israel will have to fight a 2 or multi-front war. We sent a diplomat to Lebanon to talk to who knows who .

The Latest | A top US diplomat visits Beirut after attacks across Israel-Lebanon border intensify - The Press Democrat

The Latest | Netanyahu accuses Biden of delaying weapons, but US insists arms are flowing - ABC News (go.com)

Then there is that Russian fleet cruising in the waters of our soft underbelly .

Quote:

The Russian nuclear-powered submarine Kazan and guided missile frigate Admiral Gorshkov are under way to Cuba for a scheduled port call, and they paused mid-voyage on Tuesday for an exercise in the Atlantic. According to the Kremlin, they conducted a test of long range anti-ship missiles before resuming their voyage. The Gorshkov also tested its air defense systems.

Russian Warships Carry Out Missile Exercise Off U.S. East Coast (maritime-executive.com)

Map Shows Russian Warships Passing Close to US - Newsweek

Although we claim to be tracking them ;we shadowed them from a distance. It took a day for an US sub to enter Guantanamo bay. We called it a routine port call. I would've been tracking their movements so close that they could read the numbers on our ships .

US attack sub arrives at Gitmo after Russia sends warships to Cuba (nypost.com)

The only assurance the administration gave us was that they were not carrying nukes. Their live fire exercise was with hypersonic missiles.

Clueless Joe shuffles along speaking softly and carrying a small stick.

Russia and China flew joint bomber exercises in the Alaska air identification zone that had to be intercepted.

‘This Is An Escalation’: Russian And Chinese Bombers Jointly Intercepted Near US In A Rare First (msn.com)

This came after Russia intercepted US jets flying towards Russia from the Barent Sea.

Russia says its fighter jets intercepted 2 U.S. strategic bombers in the Arctic - CBS News

Note the locations of both intercepts . The Arctic is now in play. This is happening as the US DOD has just published a new Arctic Strategy .The strategy notes that Russia’s collaboration with China in the region is on the rise. The report says that the two countries are increasingly collaborating in the Arctic. There have been joint naval exercises, and

Russia has turned to China to help fund oil and natural gas projects there .

China sees the region as a northern version of their Silk Road now that it is becoming more navigable.
China Launches the Polar Silk Road (csis.org)

This may be finding a mission for US Space Force . It operates a Solid State Phased Array Radar System in central Alaska and has taken over operations of the base in Greenland .

Space Force renames Greenland’s Thule Air Base - SpaceNews

Quote:

Major geopolitical changes are driving the need for this new strategic approach to the Arctic, including Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the accession of Finland and Sweden to the NATO Alliance, increasing collaboration between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia, and the accelerating impacts of climate change. This increasingly accessible region is becoming a venue for strategic competition, and the United States must stand ready to meet the challenge alongside Allies and partners. This new DoD strategy directs the Department to enhance its Arctic capabilities, deepen engagement with Allies and partners, and exercise our forces to build readiness for operations at high latitudes.

DOD-ARCTIC-STRATEGY-2024.PDF (defense.gov)

Russia sees the new Arctic Strategy as a provocation.

For the Kremlin, the US strategy in the Arctic is the signal "of a potential confrontation" (agenzianova.com)

What I see is these incidents with Russia are the result of a weak Biden/Harris foreign policy and our continued pushing against the Russian frontier since the end of the Cold War.

With lack of resources ;the US fleet has abandoned western Pacific leaving the PLA Navy in control.

Quote:

Inevitably, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) carrier Shandong is at sea to fill the vacuum: China, for the moment, rules the waves in the western Pacific area. With China’s behaviour elsewhere in the region – the South China Sea and the waters around Taiwan in particular – becoming ever more aggressive and illegal, this is significant. Meanwhile, China’s newest carrier Fujian is starting to look more like a near-match for a US carrier every day, conducting sea and flying trials and progressing towards Initial Operating Capability at a blistering pace.

US carriers have pulled out of the western Pacific, leaving China in charge (yahoo.com)

Thankfully, we are possibly about to elect a true Churchill look alike! KH will solve all these problems.

Ukraine troops are deep in Russia using weapons provided by the US Russia is bombing the sh*t out of Ukraine infrastructure facilities. Israel and Iran proxies exchange missile and drone strikes on 2 fronts . The US is not so secretly preparing for a nuclear war with Russia ;China; the NORKS (and most likely Iran) . We have never been closer to WWIII since November 1963.

Where is Clueless Joe ? Asleep on the beach.

Biden taking second straight week of vacation despite insisting he'd finish presidency strong (nypost.com)

Where is Kam the Sham ? AWOL Out on the campaign trail collecting donations . She did not even bother to recognize the 3rd anniversary of the Abbey Gate debacle or honor the 13 troops needlessly lost .

No one is in charge .

F-16s cost somewhere around $15 million per plane Reports say the US delivered 3 of them .

Now reports say that one crashed in combat and with it Ukraine lost one of Ukraine's top pilots.

Quote:

Pilot Oleksiy Mes, known as “Moonfish,” was killed in the crash while “repelling the biggest ever aerial attack” by Russia against Ukraine, said the source, adding that the pilot was buried on Thursday.
The crash is being investigated and international experts will be invited to participate in the probe, the source added.

The death of the pilot is a major blow for Ukraine. The first F-16s only arrived in the country earlier this month and Moonfish was one of the few pilots trained to fly them.

F-16: Top Ukrainian pilot killed when US-made fighter jet crashed | CNN

WWIII could very well start this week . Putin warned it . Why ?

Remember when Clueless Joe declared a firm NO when the topic of giving long range missiles to Ukraine that they could use for attacks inside Russia ? That was then . This is now . US Sec State Blinken and UK Foreign Sec David Lammy signaled this week that those restrictions will be lifted .

Will letting Ukraine use long-range missiles push Putin over the edge? | The Independent

NATO is split on this but the US and UK are gung ho ....let them bad boys fly.

The US has already given Ukraine the missiles .....ATACMS long-range, guided missiles . But as yet Ukraine has no authorization to use them for attacks deep into Russia.

AND it would be impossible for Ukraine to use them without direct US action by the US military . Ukraine does not have the means to program the navigation systems or the satellites to direct them to their targets .Essentially if they fly deep into Russia an American will be holding the joystick joy joy joy .

The same is true with Brit long range missiles . Any missile strike in Russia by a Brit 'Storm Shadow ' long range missiles will be done with Brit hands This Putin knows.

Quote:

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned on Thursday evening he would regard such an agreement as tantamount to NATO directly entering the war. “This will mean that NATO countries, the United States, and European countries are fighting Russia,”

Not to worry . Putin is only bluffing . How do the pundits know ? Well because Putin did not blow up the planet the last time he threatened a nuclear response.

Indeed we have crossed his red lines before. But he already faces having to deal with a Ukraine surge inside of Russia's Kursk province. Eventually he will either have to make good on his threats or Russia will find someone else to do it.

Lame duck mentally incapacitated American President Clueless Joe would just love to leave office having been a winner of a war ;especially as he has been a one man foreign policy disaster and great Presidents win wars .

As Robert Gates said of Joe "I think he has been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades”

Tom, would we not be wise to consider the Russia/Ukraine situation to be largely a European matter which does not greatly concern us?