[tomder55]

That is the assessment of 4 Star General Michael Minehan ,the commander of the Air Mobility Command, the Air Force’s tank-refueling operation. There is a leaked memo from the General to his staff ordering
then to prepare for war with China by 2025 .


https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/nat...memo-rcna67967

"Minihan said in the memo that because both Taiwan and the U.S. will have presidential elections in 2024, the U.S. will be “distracted,” and Chinese President Xi Jinping will have an opportunity
to move on Taiwan. "

The Pentagon is not disputing the authenticity of the leaked memo. Maybe the Pentagon will get serious about the threat and worry less about pronouns .

He's not alone .
Navy Adm. Phil Davidson told Congress in 2021 that he worried China was “accelerating their ambitions to supplant the United States,” and could strike Taiwan before 2027.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-admiral-warns

Others predict the war could coincide with the 2027 100 year anniversary of the People's Liberation Army(PLA) .

Anyway few dispute the war will happen.

George Friedman of Geopolitical futures is an outlier it seems .He says the Chinese would be risking too much


https://geopoliticalfutures.com/the-...lihood-of-war/


His article was written in 2021 ;and in the same article he wrote that a Russian attack on Ukraine "seems farfetched".

I agree with his observations about logistical challenges around a Chinese attack on Taiwan. That I believe the Chinese have planned around .
They also see that since his article the US had a hasty and disgraceful withdrawal from Afghanistan . We also have depleted much of our reserve conventional weapons supplying Ukraine.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/17/polit...ine/index.html


China sees us distracted in Europe and politically divided .Xi Jinping said in 2021 "time and momentum are on our side".
China’s leadership and foreign policy elite declared that a “period of historical opportunity” had emerged to expand the country’s strategic focus from Asia to the wider globe and its governance systems.

But is time on their side ? He appears to be preparing to strike while the iron is hot.


CIA Director William Burns revealed Thursday that Xi has instructed his army
"to be ready by 2027 to conduct a successful invasion" of Taiwan." "Our assessment at CIA is that I wouldn't underestimate President Xi's ambitions with regard to Taiwan"


https://www.reuters.com/world/cia-ch...ar-2023-02-02/


Burns comments came as more than a dozen Chinese military aircraft and four naval vessels were detected around Taiwan .


Reacting to US postures in Taiwan that included Madam Mimi's visit in August last year ;China has since ramped up pressure to unprecedented levels .Reacting to
Chinese provocations ,Taiwan has gone to a heightened alert


Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said 20 Chinese aircraft on Tuesday crossed the central line in the Taiwan Strait that has long been an unofficial buffer zone between the sides, which separated during a civil war in 1949.

https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-politics-government-china-3aa7802d440440aaf4544aca7f5463d2


And then there is that Chinese spy balloon. All it did was cross over South Korean and Japanese air space .... breached America's early warning space in Alaska ....and flew over a US Airforce base
that is critical for our ICBM systems . Quite a precise path for a balloon allegedly flowing with the wind currents.

Sec State Blinken has cancelled his visit to China .

https://apnews.com/article/politics-...df146ed5b35ec6

(Will Clueless Joe appoint Kam the Sham as the balloon czar ?)
.
The US announced an increased US presence in the Philippines .An agreement has been made for 4 more American bases . Although the locations have yet to be announced ,

Luzon, where Manila is located is about 200 miles from Taiwan
. Last week the US opened a new Marine base in Guam.
Our 2022 Defense strategy calls for more American presence to deter China.

https://www.defense.gov/News/Release...-defense-stra/

So how would that war go down ?

Rand Corp's analysis says that the Chinese might prefer a low intensity conflict . But the risk of escalation is high .

https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_r.../RRA830-1.html


I am not sure I agree. But that all depends on or readiness and willingness to go all in defending Taiwan. If I were an American ally I would not necessarily count on that .

[tomder55]

Yesterday in a show of force ,the US had 3 Ohio-class subs surface simultaneously in the Pacific and Indian Ocean .

[tomder55]

Admiral Gilday Chief of the Navy in October said

What we’ve seen over the past 20 years is that they have delivered on every promise they’ve made earlier than they said they were going to deliver on it” .“When we talk about the 2027 window, in my mind, that has to be a 2022 window or potentially a 2023 window; I can’t rule it out.

Gilday said the Navy cannot justify spending any dollars that do not threaten China as the pacing threat .
October Sec State Blinken said that China may accelerate it's timeline for seizing Taiwan .

China speeding up plans to seize Taiwan, Blinken says - The Washington Post

September Adm. Charles Richard, commander of U.S. Strategic Command in a panel discussion said "All of us in this room are back in the business of contemplating competition through crisis and possible direct armed conflict with a nuclear-capable peer" ."We have not had to do that in over 30 years. The implications of that are profound. They're profound for homeland defense. They're profound for strategic deterrence, as well as us achieving national objectives. And this is no longer theoretical."

Watch, Read: 'America Under Attack: Defending the Homeland' | Air & Space Forces Magazine (airandspaceforces.com)

"Russia and China can escalate to any level of violence that they choose in any domain with any instrument of power worldwide," "We just haven't faced competitors and opponents like that in a long time."
He said that because of this, the department will have to change its approach to warfare; that the slower, traditional approaches to escalation don't work anymore.
November he said "This Ukraine crisis that we're in right now, this is just the warmup," "The big one is coming. And it isn't going to be very long before we're going to get tested in ways that we haven't been tested a long time."

‘The Big One Is Coming’ and the U.S. Military Isn’t Ready - WSJ
"As I assess our level of deterrence against China, the ship is slowly sinking," "It is sinking slowly, but it is sinking, as fundamentally they are putting capability in the field faster than we are. As those curves keep going, it isn't going to matter how good our [operating plan] is or how good our commanders are, or how good our forces are — we're not going to have enough of them. And that is a very near-term problem."

And it may not be just Taiwan that sparks the fight . An accident may light the fuse ....increasingly provocative Chinese intercepts in international air and sea space .... the NORKS .... the Chinese encroachment on Philippine and Japanese territorial waters.....or even floating a spy balloon over continental US..

I see no upgrade in American deterrence . Instead the Navy is taking Ticonderoga class cruisers out of service .The Air Force plans to scrap the A-10,and wants to retire the F-22 Raptors (recently in the news for shooting down the Chinese balloon),their top of the line fighter jet. They justify it as paying for the force of the future . But according to their top commander's assessments ,the future is now. Their force of the future plans for 2035-2040 . Their threat assessment is immediate .

I will be keeping close attention to Clueless Joe's comments about this during Tuesday's SOTU address .
We could with a miscalculation in Ukraine be dragged into that war at the same time that China makes it's move. In fact that would be the ideal time for them to act. A two front war with nuclear adversaries .(and don't rule out nuclear powers NORKS and Iran's participation ) .
START will expire in 2026 . But China has not been constrained by the treaty . Our Columbia class next generation sub program ;to replace the Ohio class was planned for a 2031 .But that may be too late ;and there is increasing reports that the 2031 deadline will not be met.
Columbia Class Submarine: Program Lacks Essential Schedule Insight amid Continuing Construction Challenges | U.S. GAO

How about hypersonic missiles ? Both China and Russia have deployed them .The US will not have them ready this year.

US Navy touts hypersonic missile progress ahead of 2025 fielding (defensenews.com)

[jlisenbe]

Sure looks like Trump may have had the right idea in trying to hinder trade with China. It is right in several respects, one of which is the fact that it has been American dollars funding much of this Chinese defense build-up.

[tomder55]

New GAO finding . The Navy spends more time repairing ships than deploying them.

GAO-23-106440, Weapons System Sustainment: Navy Ship Usuage Has decreased as Challenges and Costs Have Increased

The GAO warned that increased delays in maintenance can impact the Navy’s readiness. Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday released a new planor the Navy’s future, calling for expanding the fleet from roughly 300 combat ships to 543 by 2045.

pdf_64582.pdf (dvidshub.net)

They can't even keep the fleet they have afloat .

[jlisenbe]

The GAO warned that increased delays in maintenance can impact the Navy’s readiness. Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday released a new planor the Navy’s future, calling for expanding the fleet from roughly 300 combat ships to 543 by 2045.

What is really needed is a new CinC.

[tomder55]

“Name me a world leader who’d change places with Xi Jinping. Name me one"

Biden Goes Off-Script, Shouts About ‘Changing Places’ With Xi Jinping | The Daily Caller

[jlisenbe]

When Biden goes off script and has to think as he goes, then it's trouble.

[tomder55]

Sec State Blinken is in China on an appeasement tour.
He reiterated the US support for the 'One China Policy ' ;a policy that mainland China insists on even though unification with Taiwan can only happen through conquest.

He actually said that the concern about a crisis in Taiwan concerns him because....

“And the reason that this is a concern for so many countries, not just the United States, is that were there to be a crisis over Taiwan, the likelihood is that could produce an economic crisis that could affect quite literally the entire world.”
“Fifty percent of commercial container traffic goes through the Taiwan Strait every day. Seventy percent of semiconductors are manufactured in Taiwan. If as a result of a crisis that was taken offline, it would have dramatic consequences for virtually every country around the world,”

US 'does not support' Taiwan independence, Blinken says (msn.com)

In other words it may affect "10% for the big guy" Quid Pro Joe's personal dealings with China.


Blinken's remarks appear to be a reversal of Biden's promise in September 2022 to defend Taiwan militarily in case of a Chinese invasion.
Asked in a CBS 60 Minutes interview broadcast on September 18, last year, whether US forces would defend the self-ruled island claimed by China, the US president replied: "Yes, if in fact there was an unprecedented attack."

Yup Quid got his marching orders from his patrons in the CCP.

[tomder55]

So how effective was the Blinken Xi summit in easing tensions "

Can anyone say Monroe Doctrine ?

According to WSJ today

China and Cuba are negotiating to establish a new joint military training facility on the island, sparking alarm in Washington that it could lead to the stationing of Chinese troops and other security and intelligence operations just 100 miles off Florida’s coast, according to current and former U.S. officials.
Discussions for the facility on Cuba’s northern coast are at an advanced stage but not concluded, U.S. intelligence reports suggest. The Biden administration has contacted Cuban officials to try to forestall the deal, seeking to tap in to what it thinks might be Cuban concerns about ceding sovereignty. Beijing’s effort to establish a military training facility in Cuba hasn’t been previously reported.

Beijing Plans a New Training Facility in Cuba, Raising Prospect of Chinese Troops on America’s Doorstep - WSJ

Earlier this month it was confirmed that China was spying on the US from Cuba since 2019 ;and will give Cuba several $billions for a permanent spy station. .

Cuba to Host Secret Chinese Spy Base Focusing on U.S. - WSJ

Then there is the matter of Chinese police stations harassing Chinese expats inside the US .This was first reported last month .

Two Arrested for Operating Illegal Overseas Police Station of the Chinese Government | OPA | Department of Justice

Since then we have learned that China has a number of these police outposts in the US and around the globe .

Feds funded second centre with suspected Chinese police station | National Post

China has closed unofficial ‘police stations’ in Britain, UK minister says | China | The Guardian

China's 100-plus 'secret police stations' span from NY to Tokyo - Nikkei Asia