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    Mark Chase's Avatar
    Mark Chase Posts: 1, Reputation: 1
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    #1

    Jan 1, 2010, 11:05 PM
    Poisson Distribution
    Could anyone please suggest on this problem on Poisson Distribution .The problem is that the population in a city is 30000 and that 0.. 1 in each 1000 of the case the accident occurs at random so this is a Poisson Dist. with Lambda = 0.0001*30000=3. One way in which this rate can change is - outbreak M - the occurrence rate of the disease increases to 0.15 for a six month period and then returns to its natural level. To detect this outbreak a notification rule has been devised. For a population of size 30,000 it is :

    Report a type M outbreak if the number of occurrences in at least 3 months out of a 6-month period is 5 or more.

    what is the probabilty that type M outbreak is reported by the end of a six month period.

    Kind Regards,

    siddharth
    galactus's Avatar
    galactus Posts: 2,271, Reputation: 282
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    #2

    Jan 2, 2010, 04:55 PM
    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Chase View Post
    Could anyone please suggest on this problem on Poisson Distribution .The problem is that the population in a city is 30000 and that 0.1 in each 1000 of the case the accident occurs at random so this is a Poisson Dist. with Lambda = 0.0001*30000=3. One way in which this rate can change is - outbreak M - the occurrence rate of the disease increases to 0.15 for a six month period and then returns to its natural level. To detect this outbreak a notification rule has been devised. For a population of size 30,000 it is

    Report a type M outbreak if the number of occurrences out of a 6-month period is 5 or more.
    what is the probabilty that type M outbreak is reported by the end of a six month period.

    Then we want the probability that there are 5 or more outbreaks.

    The Poisson distribution is given by

    But, the problem says 5 OR MORE. Therefore, we find the probabilites for 0 to 4 and subtract from 1.

    But,


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