Originally Posted by
Mark Chase
Could anyone please suggest on this problem on Poisson Distribution .The problem is that the population in a city is 30000 and that 0.1 in each 1000 of the case the accident occurs at random so this is a Poisson Dist. with Lambda = 0.0001*30000=3. One way in which this rate can change is - outbreak M - the occurrence rate of the disease increases to 0.15 for a six month period and then returns to its natural level. To detect this outbreak a notification rule has been devised. For a population of size 30,000 it is
Report a type M outbreak if the number of occurrences out of a 6-month period is 5 or more.