[Choux]

By ANDREW OSBORN WALL STREET JOURNAL

MOSCOW -- For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media.
[Prof. Panarin]


In recent weeks, he's been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. "It's a record," says Prof. Panarin. "But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger."

Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.

But it's his bleak forecast for the U.S. that is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which in recent years has blamed Washington for everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial crisis. Mr. Panarin's views also fit neatly with the Kremlin's narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into separate territories.

A polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut, Mr. Panarin insists he does not dislike Americans. But he warns that the outlook for them is dire.

"There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur," he says. "One could rejoice in that process," he adds, poker-faced. "But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario -- for Russia." Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.

Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to Russian control.


He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.

California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C. and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.

"It would be reasonable for Russia to lay claim to Alaska; it was part of the Russian Empire for a long time." A framed satellite image of the Bering Strait that separates Alaska from Russia like a thread hangs from his office wall. "It's not there for no reason," he says with a sly grin.

Interest in his forecast revived this fall when he published an article in Izvestia, one of Russia's biggest national dailies. In it, he reiterated his theory, called U.S. foreign debt "a pyramid scheme," and predicted China and Russia would usurp Washington's role as a global financial regulator.

Americans hope President-elect Barack Obama "can work miracles," he wrote. "But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles."

Edited for length.

___________________________________

Do you think the demise of AMerica is at hand?


D

[magprob]

He may be right about Alaska. We leased it. Lease is up.

Now Sarah Palin can see Russia from her front yard and back yard as well.

[Choux]

Yeah, lol.

And, I don't think the Russians like folks with guns shooting off their mouth. (pun intended)

[magprob]

They like them... tenderized and well done.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html

[tomder55]

He is looking at history through Russian prism. Before the Soviet Union collapsed ,Russia under Yeltsin withheld resources to other regions of the nation . That is why he concludes that the richer American states will follow Russia's example.

He is delusional thinking that the ruble will ever emerge as a regional currency . The Ruskies have devalued the ruble 12 times since their invasion of Georgia. As oil prices drop ,their currency ,very dependent on high oil prices ,will continue to fall in value. Let's see which nation falls first.


edit :

I had never heard before that Alaska was "leased " . If true it was indeed Seward's Folly . But he has that history wrong also.

Actually there is this urban myth in Russia that says there is a claim on Alaska because following the 1917 Russian Revolution the communist government renounced all previous laws and treaties of the czarist government. On that basis the lame claim about Alaska being leased is made.

[Galveston1]

I think we may see a lessening of US worldwide influence due to economic reasons.

If conditions here get as bad as in the great depression, I think we can be assured of massive civil unrest in the great cities, at least.

I doubt there will be civil war. I think that would be counter to the interests of the international bankers. Kind of like killing the goose that lays the golden eggs.

Of course, I am well aware that I could be wrong. Anyway, I certainly hope there is no civil war in our future.

[DocB]

He may be right about Alaska. We leased it. Lease is up.

Now Sarah Palin can see Russia from her front yard and back yard as well.

(ha, ha, that quote was from Palin's copycat on SNL, not from Palin.)

[magprob]

[QUOTE=Galveston1;1454530]

I doubt there will be civil war. I think that would be counter to the interests of the international bankers. Kind of like killing the goose that lays the golden eggs. [QUOTE]

Onward Christian Soldiers. Still a lot of a$$ kicking to do around the world. You are right. They ain't quite finished with us yet.

[magprob]

(ha, ha, that quote was from Palin's copycat on SNL, not from Palin.)

Thank you. The two were blurred in the fair and balanced media.

[andrewc24301]

I had never heard before that Alaska was "leased " . If true it was indeed Seward's Folly . But he has that history wrong also.

Actually there is this urban myth in Russia that says there is a claim on Alaska because following the 1917 Russian Revolution the communist government renounced all previous laws and treaties of the czarist government. On that basis the lame claim about Alaska being leased is made.

Oh America (not just Alaska) is leased all right, just not to Russia. But that's a whole 'nother topic.

Back on topic...

I can't imagine a civil war breaking out in such a "suburban" nation. I mean, kids aren't even allowed to play foot ball without people compaining about it being to rough.

There won't be a civil war because someone might get hurt.

War with Russia? I'm not ruling one out, at some point in this half of the century.

Besides, 2010 is just a year away, we'd better get cracking if we are going to shart killing each other off. Based on where we are at now, I'd say we are a good bit away form civil way. Financial meltdown? Maybe. And perhaps a bit of looting, but as for an organized civil war with two opposing sides, armies and what not. I doubt it. Having 6 nations... please..

[magprob]

In modern Russia and its predecessor, the Soviet Union, there has been speculation in the mass media that Alaska was not sold, but merely leased to the U.S. for 99 or 150 years and has to be returned to Russia. However, the treaty itself is quite clear that it was a complete cession.

[TexasParent]

Is this guy selling a book or something? Civil war? Things would have to get pretty bad economically, like unemployment worse than the great depression. Furthermore, you would have to have a bunch of regional leaders with a lot of cash to fund an uprising. It would never get off the ground, the power of our military is too great for a civilian force to overcome and I don't think our military can be turned against the Constitution or the people.

It's all fantasy, but the scary thing is that if we ever did want to overthrow our own government if it became fascist, etc. would it be possible in this day and age? Very unlikely.

[Nestorian]

K I'm short on time, yes yes this for tells lame.

Ok, a war is already on, it's happening all around us. We just don't want to look at it. It's like the nasty dirt under the rug. No body talks about it, but its still there.

[andrewc24301]

Is this guy selling a book or something? Civil war? Things would have to get pretty bad economically, like unemployment worse than the great depression. Furthermore, you would have to have a bunch of regional leaders with alot of cash to fund an uprising. It would never get off the ground, the power of our military is too great for a civilian force to overcome and I don't think our military can be turned against the Constitution or the people.

It's all fantasy, but the scary thing is that if we ever did want to overthrow our own government if it became facist, etc. would it be possible in this day and age? Very unlikely.

Agreed: There may be a lot of civilian guns and what not, but they got the nukes.

I like these people who stock up on guns and all that waiting for the end of times. When I ask them what are they going to do when they run out of bullets... silence... then a shurg.

If it ever got that bad, you'd better run like hell.

I saw one guy on TV that took a different approach on preparing for a global meltdown. He's got a bike, a backpack, and a knowledge of how to live off the land. Is that a sure fire method of survival in such circumstances? Who knows, but I feel it has the best chance of success.

If it ever got that bad:

Your money would mean nothing.

Your guns would be useless withough ammunition, what - you going to forge your own bullets? Build your own shot tower? What about the chance of that being raided too?

Your best bet would be just to pull up stakes and do the best you can.

I'd venture to say that a lot of countries sit around and fantasize about the fall of the US. So many of them despise us and all. It's just wishful thinking on their part.

It's like us wishing for peace and harmony in the middle east... it's a pipe dream, nothing more.

[tomder55]

Things would have to get pretty bad economically, like unemployment worse than the great depression.

Give it enough time... maybe 2010 is too soon... but once our kids see the unfunded liabilities of the entitlement program ponzi schemes ;and rebel against them ,there could be a generational civil war with us the geezers demanding what is ours ;and our children refusing to bear the price.

[TexasParent]

give it enough time ....maybe 2010 is too soon ....but once our kids see the unfunded liabilities of the entitlement program ponzi schemes ;and rebel against them ,there could be a generational civil war with us the geezers demanding what is ours ;and our children refusing to bear the price.

Now it sounds like a Star Trek episode where nobody lives beyond a predetermined age; you walk into a vaporizing booth when you start to become a drain on society.

The authors of the constitution foresaw this thorny issue when they stated that a President can't be under 35 and Senators can't be under 30. Can you imagine if we had 18 year olds running things? :eek:

As for the kids rebelling, the only thing I see is more tax evasion and a greater underground economy as they refuse to pay for the older generation.

[magprob]

Now it sounds like a Star Trek episode where nobody lives beyond a predetermined age; you walk into a vaporizing booth when you start to become a drain on society.

The authors of the constitution forsaw this thorny issue when they stated that a President can't be under 35 and Senators can't be under 30. Can you imagine if we had 18 year olds running things? :eek:

As for the kids rebelling, the only thing I see is more tax evasion and a greater underground economy as they refuse to pay for the older generation.

THe only way to stop that is a completely cashless society. Microchips at the check out of the few remaining corporate outlets left, hooked up to the one bank of the world.

[NeedKarma]

Now it sounds like a Star Trek episode where nobody lives beyond a predetermined age; you walk into a vaporizing booth when you start to become a drain on society.

Logan's Run (1976)

[TexasParent]

THe only way to stop that is a completly cashless society. Microchips at the check out of the few remaining corporate outlets left, hooked up to the one bank of the world.

And there you have it. People being stopped within a hundred miles of the border; "produce your papers please"... pssst, all your papers now have a microchip in them, we know where you've been so don't lie to us, we've been watching. No papers, well well, big brother doesn't like that; you can have as much freedom as you want so long as we can watch your freedom to make sure you don't get the bad kind; which might be anything that we don't particularly like for any number of reasons.

Screw the paperwork, you shouldn't have to produce anything other than a driver's license if you are the driver of a car, if you are a passenger you shouldn't have to give them crap. Furthermore, they should remove your name and address from your drivers license, why do they need more than a picture of you for identification and a number which they can check to see if the license is still valid?

I don't like identity papers, no, no. One day if I live long enough I will be a minority and I don't want to have to tell people who I am and where I will be living thank you.

[TexasParent]

Logan's Run (1976)

I got my movies and TV shows crossed a bit... lol.

Episode Title: "A TASTE OF ARMAGEDDON"
Production Number: 23
Original Air Date: 02-23-67
Stardates: 3192.1, 3192.5, 3193.0

Synopsis: The U.S.S. Enterprise is transporting United Federation of Planets Ambassador Robert Fox to star cluster NGC321, hoping to open diplomatic relations with civilizations there. Eminiar Seven, the principal planet in the star cluster, sends a Code 710 message, warning the Enterprise not to approach the planet, but Ambassador Fox orders the ship into the system, to establish a much-needed port in the region for Federation Central.

Captain Kirk beams down and meets Anan Seven, head of the High Council of the Eminian Union, who says that his planet has been at war for 500 years with Vendikar, the third planet in their system, which originally was settled by their people but is now an enemy.

Kirk learns that the war is fought by computer simulations instead of real weapons, and the people calculated as casualties voluntarily report to disintigration chambers to die, but the planets' culture and infrastructure survive. Since the Enterprise is in orbit, it becomes a target in the virtual war, and in the latest attack, the ship is listed destroyed by a tricobalt satellite explosion, and everyone on the Enterprise is ordered to beam down to the planet to be killed.

Kirk refuses to cooperate, and he destroys the planet's war computers, breaking the treaty that set up the simulated war, which means that a real interplanetary war is imminent. Faced with real destruction of their cities after centuries of virtual war, the Eminians are forced to negotiate with the Vendikans for peace. Ambassador Fox remains behind to mediate the peace negotiations, as the U.S.S. Enterprise sets a course for Argana Two.