[tomder55]

That was one of Clueless Joe's gaffes . Trump blames the latest dismal jobs report on the Jerome Powell (he can't blame the Bureau of Labor Statistics since he already fired and replaced the boss with a lackey....Trump said previous numbers were rigged ) . But what he really needs is to reevaluate the effect of his tariffs on the labor market.

The jobs report is his gaffe. 22,000 jobs were added last month and the previous last 2 reports were revised down by a total of 21,000 . Almost all the new jobs are in the government supported service industries like health care . Manufacturing down 12,000; wholesale trade down 11,700. Transportation equipment manufacturing lost 14,500, and manufacturing jobs overall this year have declined by 38,000.

Why ? The obvious reason is that manufacturers anticipate a decline in demand due to the price increases they will either absorb or pass on the the consumers .

Tariffs Were Supposed to Revive US Manufacturing. So Far, They’re Having the Opposite Effect

Still Trump is going full speed ahead .He is asking SCOTUS to reverse a ruling that held his declaration of emergency for justifying his broad tariffs as unconstitutional . I hope the originalists on the court see that indeed they are .

[tomder55]

He is also wrong about the interest rates . Now is a terrible time to loosen the money supply. All it will really do is add fuel to the markets that already resemble to 2008 bubble due to tulip like speculation in tech . Yes new job creation has slowed . But it has not impacted the unemployment rate.

The bigger danger is inflation rates rising when Trump's tariffs are fully implemented . Easy money will contribute to that inflation.

[tomder55]

so now what ? BLS did another revision of the Clueless Joe's/Trump's jobs report from April 2024 - March 2025 . They were close to a million jobs off . (911,000)
This is what the government calls reliable reporting .
Which leads to the obvious observation ; The latest report had a lame 22,000 jobs created . Given that most revisions are revisions down ;it is likely that we were in a negative job growth situation.

Trump claims any numbers he doesn't like is rigged . That is silly but if he said the numbers are flawed he'd be closer to the truth. BLS relies on input from employers .If they are not responding like they had in the past then the data is unreliable .
Responses have been declining for years and dipped after the pandemic.
CPS Response Rates : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics


Be that as it may ;sooner or later Trump will not get away with blaming Biden or Jerome Powell or BLS for the poor economics performance . He owns the economy . Despite what I think is a good performance on the so called 80:20 issues . Elections are won and lost on the economy .


He made it worse for himself during the election by over promising results. Rember all those things that would happen on day 1 ? One of them was prices would start dropping on day one . The inflation rate has gone down .But as I have noted before ;the only way prices would drop across the board would be if we were in a recession and like in the Reagan era when the Fed left interest rates high and we had a strong dollar (the 1981-82 recession .... there was a lot of pain before these results ) .

Today we are in a slow growth economy that has slowed the inflation rate .But Trump bitterly complains about it and demands that the Fed easy rates ;which they probably will given the pressure they are under . Easing rates will add inflationary pressure.

A bell weather has been special elections . Dems have been doing very well in special elections whittling away at the GOP very narrow majority .

Democrat wins Virginia special election seen as Trump referendum | Fox News

Democrats Overperform in Florida as They Cruise to Victory in Two Elections - Newsweek

Democrats won more special elections last night

I would like to see Trump retain his majority throughout his term . But that is looking less likely . He will resort to more freebees (I have never accused him of being fiscally conservative ) Look for gimmicks like so called tariff rebates to add more monopoly bucks to the debt.
Are We Getting a $600 Tariff Stimulus Check in 2025?

[tomder55]

I don't quite get the enthusiasm over a possible Fed rate cut . Some are saying a half point reduction. The truth is that they will be lucky with a quarter point given the recent price numbers . Inflation is far from tamed,( 3.1% over the last 12 months against the 2% Fed target)

Much like in the early 80s ;inflation poses a greater threat to most Americans than a recession.