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    tomder55's Avatar
    tomder55 Posts: 1,742, Reputation: 343
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    #1

    Dec 28, 2021, 06:46 AM
    What does Russia REALLY want ?
    Here is the dipsh*t quote of the year
    “The Russian people don’t need a war with Ukraine. They don’t need their sons coming home in body bags. They don’t need another foreign adventure. What they need is better healthcare, build back better, roads, schools, economic opportunity.”
    Senior Administration Official on U.S. Diplomatic Engagement Regarding Our Ongoing Commitment to Ukraine’s Sovereignty, Territorial Integrity, and Independence - United States Department of State

    A whole interview was published and released on the State Dept web site by an unnamed " senior Administration official". That is a problem in itself . What happened ? Was that official too embarrassed by that nonsense to have the name of the official released ?

    Americans don't want Build Brandon Better . What makes this official think the Russians want it ? Maybe annexing Ukraine is Putin's idea of building Russia back better . He did say that the dissolution of the Soviet Union was a tragedy . Does this unnamed official think Putin gives a Rat's A$$ what the people of Russia want ?

    When was the last time the State Dept,or Clueless ,or the compliant press mentioned the Budapest Memorandum in discussions regarding Russia's pressure campaign against Ukraine . That was the agreement in 1994 where Ukraine would return Soviet nukes to Russia in exchange for Russia honoring Ukraine independence.

    He did not honor that . But no problem because his real concerns are for a Russian build back better . There must be a lot of JFKerry disciples left at State . Of course you remember when he said of Putin in 2014 “You just don’t in the 21st century behave in 19th-century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped up pretext.”

    Well clearly time and time again that is exactly how Putin ,and Xi and many other despot leaders of the world behave. For our State Department to naively believe otherwise is dangerous to American security .
    tomder55's Avatar
    tomder55 Posts: 1,742, Reputation: 343
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    #2

    Jan 13, 2022, 06:26 AM
    Turns out Clueless Joe wants to make Build Brandon Better an international movement

    Here is Under Sec State Victoria Nuland making the case for Russia to BBB

    "the Kremlin has to justify to the Russian people why it is stoking a potentially very bloody and costly conflict for Russia, rather than focusing on its own citizens’ health and on Russia’s own significant challenges in building back better."

    Department Press Briefing – January 11, 2022 - United States Department of State

    I'm sure that convinced Vladdy the evil of his ways. After he finished with his belly laugh he went right to work on it.

    Athos's Avatar
    Athos Posts: 947, Reputation: 55
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    #3

    Jan 13, 2022, 06:43 AM
    What is your solution to the situation?
    tomder55's Avatar
    tomder55 Posts: 1,742, Reputation: 343
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    #4

    Jan 13, 2022, 10:04 AM
    What is your solution to the situation?

    February 1990, U.S. Secretary of State James Baker and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev discussed NATO’s future role in a unified Germany. Baker told Gorbachev that “there would be no extension of NATO’s jurisdiction for forces of NATO one inch to the east” and agreed with Gorbachev’s statement that “Any extension of the zone of NATO is unacceptable.” Although this was not finalized in a formal agreement ,that was the understanding at the end of the Cold War. Bubba got in and knew that Russia was weak and Yeltin a putz . He took advantage of that and the eastern expansion of NATO into the former Soviet Union began.

    The question becomes what are we willing to defend ? We know the western Europeans will defend these new NATO nations to the last American standing . It is like pulling teeth to get them to spend the small percent of their GDP that they have agreed to spend on their own defense and NATO.

    So I ask you in turn are you willing to defend Ukrainian sovereignty with American blood and treasure ? Will you favor the defense of the Baltic States that have already entered NATO ? Will you agree to have American troops stand like the Spartan 300 to prevent a Russian move through the Suwalki Gap as we once stood on the Fulda Gap in Germany guarding against a Soviet offensive ?

    I would make it categorically clear that the US opposes Ukraine entrance into NATO. I would make it clear to Ukraine that if the Russians move on Donbas that they are on their own .It is up to Kiev to make a separate peace with Moscow.
    That is the way it is .
    jlisenbe's Avatar
    jlisenbe Posts: 4,332, Reputation: 156
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    #5

    Jan 13, 2022, 11:09 AM
    We know the western Europeans will defend these new NATO nations to the last American standing . It is like pulling teeth to get them to spend the small percent of their GDP that they have agreed to spend on their own defense and NATO.
    Exactly correct. We should have started insisting on a serious effort by our world "allies" years ago. That, or tell them to learn how to speak Russian and Chinese.

    Not sure I agree with you about Ukraine. Allow the Russkies to gobble up Ukraine and we could end up facing a more powerful Russia than we have to deal with now. It's a pretty bad time to have a senile person in the White House.
    Athos's Avatar
    Athos Posts: 947, Reputation: 55
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    #6

    Jan 13, 2022, 11:29 AM
    Quote Originally Posted by tomder55 View Post
    I would make it categorically clear that the US opposes Ukraine entrance into NATO. I would make it clear to Ukraine that if the Russians move on Donbas that they are on their own .It is up to Kiev to make a separate peace with Moscow. That is the way it is .
    Your solution is to leave Ukraine in the lurch. No sanctions if Russia invades? Do you acquiesce if Russia invades other countries on its borders? Countries not on its borders?

    At least we can be thankful that Trump isn't still president. He'd send weapons to his ally Russia so Putin would let him build Moscow Trump Tower.
    Curlyben's Avatar
    Curlyben Posts: 18,505, Reputation: 1860
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    #7

    Jan 13, 2022, 11:46 AM
    Bottom line here is that Putin wants to re-establish the Soviet union, Crimea was a starter, the 'Stans will be next.
    He's ex-KGB and just cant let go of such power...
    tomder55's Avatar
    tomder55 Posts: 1,742, Reputation: 343
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    #8

    Jan 13, 2022, 12:24 PM
    That assumes Russia could beat them at an acceptable cost to them . That means permanently dealing with an insurgency.

    I don't like the idea of Russia invading them . I just think our response will be as decisive as it was when Russia decided to protect ethnic Russians in Georgia . In fact Putin's MO has been to do carve outs of territories where ethnic Russians dominate. Where did he get that from ? Maybe the thought entered his mind when NATO helped carve out Kosovo by bombing the [email protected] out of Serbia ;a Russian ally .

    Unlike the Baltic or the Turkish states ,Ukraine's ties to Russia are deep and historic; much more so than Ukraine's ties to the west. The first Russian state began in Kiev. (Kievan Rus) founded by Rurik long considered the Godfather of Russia .... with the Capitol in Kiev. . And as noted there is a huge ethnic Russian population (more than a third ) .

    There is one other geopolitical reason for Russia's interest in Ukraine . Putin says if God had put a mountain range in Ukraine then the plains of eastern Europe would not have been an inviting route of western invasion of Russia. But history doesn't lie. Russia historically was threatened by European invasion with Europe's armies marching through Ukraine's flatlands . A map reader can see why Russia is constantly intervening on it's border lands. The Poles came across the plain in 1605,The Swedes under Charles XII in 1707.The French under Napoleon in 1812 The Germans twice in the 20th century.

    During the early days the US was threatened on it's borders and expanded west until it met favorable geography . It would've done the same to the north if we weren't spanked trying . And we fought Mexico and annexed strategic territory for the same reason. It gave us strategic space.
    The Russians view Ukraine and Poland the same way.; as strategic space. But now NATO is parked on the Russian border to the north the Baltics and in Poland to the west. NATO weakened a strategic ally in Serbia ; And NATO fought on the Russian border in Afghanistan .

    The other strategic factor for Russia has been the lack of warm water port access . The closest they have to that is their Black Sea fleet that is parked historically in Crimea. In Ukraine their concerns and fears intersect.

    I don't think Russian control of Ukraine significantly strengthens them at all. But NATO parked in Ukraine threatens them significantly. We almost fought WWIII when Russian military had a nuclear presence in Cuba. To Russia ,Ukraine is Cuba.
    tomder55's Avatar
    tomder55 Posts: 1,742, Reputation: 343
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    #9

    Jan 13, 2022, 12:35 PM
    Bottom line here is that Putin wants to re-establish the Soviet union, Crimea was a starter, the 'Stans will be next.
    He's ex-KGB and just cant let go of such power..
    And how many of your countrymen are you willing to sacrifice for Ukraine ? The Stans are willingly going into the Russian orbit after the US left Afghanistan in such a shameful manner .
    tomder55's Avatar
    tomder55 Posts: 1,742, Reputation: 343
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    #10

    Jan 13, 2022, 12:42 PM
    Your solution is to leave Ukraine in the lurch.
    My solution is for Ukraine and Russia to make a separate peace.
    No sanctions if Russia invades?
    How would that be decisive in any way ? Like the sanctions imposed after Crimea ? Like the sanctions imposed after Russia virtually annexed Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia ?

    I mean don't get me wrong ; I like this new found Dem lust to control Russia after the Dem appeasement of the Soviets .

    At least we can be thankful that Trump isn't still president. He'd send weapons to his ally Russia so Putin would let him build Moscow Trump Tower.
    You have short term memory . It was Trump who sent weapons in defense of both Ukraine and Poland . The Dems best offense appears to be a movable red line .
    jlisenbe's Avatar
    jlisenbe Posts: 4,332, Reputation: 156
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    #11

    Jan 13, 2022, 01:12 PM
    My solution is for Ukraine and Russia to make a separate peace.
    On a level of difficulty scale, I'd give that about a 9.8. It can only happen if the Ukes cave in on virtually everything.

    I'm glad I'm not the one having to figure this out. Of all the NATO countries, only the U.S. seems to be adequately committed to defense. The Europeans could be imposing IF they agreed to work together, but I don't expect that to happen. It would be a good idea if they would start actively working to eliminate the need for Russian natural gas.
    tomder55's Avatar
    tomder55 Posts: 1,742, Reputation: 343
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    #12

    Jan 13, 2022, 01:26 PM
    It would be a good idea if they would start actively working to eliminate the need for Russian natural gas.
    Funny you should say that . The one sanction I would've kept was the sanctions on Nord Stream 2

    That would be in the US interests because concurrently we could drill baby drill and export LNG to Europe . The same people who want us to "sanction" the [email protected] out of Russia in leu of doing anything to actually stop them are the ones that weaken the greatest strategic threat we have against the "gas station with an army "

    As for our allies in Europe ; they would be the first ones to look for work arounds against tough sanctions
    jlisenbe's Avatar
    jlisenbe Posts: 4,332, Reputation: 156
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    #13

    Jan 13, 2022, 01:34 PM
    I would have put allies in quotations marks. It is certainly true that we cannot be the world's policeman. The days of deficit spending must come to screeching, unpleasant halt some day, and then we will be even less capable than we are now. If we could put together a genuine alliance with some teeth, then that might do some good. Until then, and as much as I hate to say it, the Ukes are in serious trouble. Might boil down to how much they value their independence.
    talaniman's Avatar
    talaniman Posts: 54,328, Reputation: 10855
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    #14

    Jan 13, 2022, 07:23 PM
    They ran that other Vlad stooge out of town but Ukraine is seriously over matched militarily anyway but messing with guys that dig 40's style trenches in frozen ground may not be as easy as one would think.

    Wonder what America would be like if not for Lafayette?
    tomder55's Avatar
    tomder55 Posts: 1,742, Reputation: 343
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    #15

    Jan 14, 2022, 04:18 AM
    Wonder what America would be like if not for Lafayette?
    I believe that the revolution and the American experiment was not dependent of one man or the intervention of France no matter how helpful it was to accelerate the final outcome. It was born in the philosophy of the Age of Enlightenment. If I were to give any individual credit it would be John Locke and his influence of the shapers of the revolution and eventually the republic .
    talaniman's Avatar
    talaniman Posts: 54,328, Reputation: 10855
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    #16

    Jan 14, 2022, 07:38 AM
    A helping hand in a time of need sure didn't hurt keeping that idea alive.
    tomder55's Avatar
    tomder55 Posts: 1,742, Reputation: 343
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    #17

    Jan 14, 2022, 08:53 AM
    yes indeed and I will always be greatful to the French recognizing that they were in a 100 year war with GB and it was in their interests to support our cause .

    But if you want a good comparison to today then all you have to do is think back to the time when the US issued the 'Monroe Doctrine ' knowing there was not a snow ball's chance in hell we could enforce it . But as we got more powerful we did everything we could to drive away European threats from our hemisphere.

    Well Russia faces the same thing. It did not have to be that way. We could've done a Marshall Plan and supported the budding democracy in Russia. Instead, as I already detailed; we took the opportunity in Russia's weakness to put US and NATO forces within a couple hundred miles of Moscow.

    Even worse ;our posture in the last 30+ years to Russia has forced them into a growing alliance with the one nation we should've been concerned about ....China .
    jlisenbe's Avatar
    jlisenbe Posts: 4,332, Reputation: 156
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    #18

    Jan 14, 2022, 09:26 AM
    We could've done a Marshall Plan and supported the budding democracy in Russia. Instead, as I already detailed; we took the opportunity in Russia's weakness to put US and NATO forces within a couple hundred miles of Moscow.
    Not a bad idea except that we would be in even greater debt now if we had done that. We can't do everything.
    tomder55's Avatar
    tomder55 Posts: 1,742, Reputation: 343
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    #19

    Jan 14, 2022, 09:44 AM
    It would be no cost because there is PLENTY of foreign aid that is wasted spending . Just a shifting of priorities is /was in order .

    Besides part of the rationale for the Marshall plan was to build markets we could exploit and to create reliable trading partners ..and it worked For many years after the war we were the only game in town a lot of American goods went that way.
    jlisenbe's Avatar
    jlisenbe Posts: 4,332, Reputation: 156
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    #20

    Jan 14, 2022, 10:21 AM
    It would be no cost because there is PLENTY of foreign aid that is wasted spending . Just a shifting of priorities is /was in order .
    I think that's a great idea. I also regard the likelihood of it happening to be vanishingly small. Modern pols have figured out that borrowing/printing money is vastly preferred to the business of having to be responsible in making choices that reduce deficits. The easier option is the one that prevails now.

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