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    dengu's Avatar
    dengu Posts: 1, Reputation: 1
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    #1

    Jun 6, 2009, 06:48 PM
    Probability of getting a flush in poker
    here is the question,

    As part of a new poker promotion campaign, a casino is introducing a new game called flush that costs $0.25 to play; the game is based on a flush hand in poker in which a player holds all cards of the same suit. After paying $0.25 the player is dealt 5 cards from a deck of completely shuffled U.S playing cards. If all the cards are the same suit, then the player gets $100 back.
    Q What is the probability of getting a flush?
    Q Should the casino expect to win money ot lose money on this promotional game?

    For the first part, I think p(flush)= 13/52x12/51x11/50x10/49x9/48
    If a player gets a flush then the probability is multiplied by (100-0.25)=99.75

    Can you tell me if this is correct. If it is, how do I answer the second question? I think people will be willing to pay at least a dollar to play the game (so they will play four times). Does that change anything?
    Perito's Avatar
    Perito Posts: 3,139, Reputation: 150
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    #2

    Jun 6, 2009, 07:30 PM

    Corrected
    galactus's Avatar
    galactus Posts: 2,271, Reputation: 282
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    #3

    Jun 7, 2009, 04:51 AM
    The probability of getting a flush in poker(not counting straight or royal flushes):

    We choose 5 cards from the same suit of which there are 13 choices, C(13,5)

    There are 4 suits, so we choose 1 of those. C(4,1)

    Now, subtract the number of straight and royal flushes, which is 40.



    The prob. Is then

    Or about a .2% prob.

    If you want to count the royal and straight flushes, just add the 40 back in.

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