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    janemorales's Avatar
    janemorales Posts: 26, Reputation: 1
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    #1

    Jul 20, 2008, 04:21 PM
    driving probability
    I am struggling with understanding probabilities: Did I calculate this correctly. Can you help with the explanation?

    The probability is 1 in 4,000,000 that a single auto trip in the United States will result in a fatality. Over a lifetime, an average U.S. driver takes 50,000 trips. (a) What is the probability of a fatal accident over a lifetime? Explain your reasoning carefully. Hint: Assume independent events. Why might the assumption of independence be violated? (b) Why might a driver be tempted not to use a seat belt “just on this trip”?

    (a) – 1 / 4,000,000 = .0000002 x 50,000 = .01 or 1% probability

    A driver might be tempted not to use the seat belt ‘just on this trip” because the probability is so low versus how many trips he/she will make in a lifetime.

    How might independence be violated? - the way I see it it is that you either die or not therefore it has to remain independent - doesn't it?
    Unknown008's Avatar
    Unknown008 Posts: 8,076, Reputation: 723
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    #2

    Jul 20, 2008, 08:06 PM
    Well done here also jane! You're progressing! :)
    janemorales's Avatar
    janemorales Posts: 26, Reputation: 1
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    #3

    Jul 21, 2008, 05:34 AM
    Can this problem be answered using Excel? If so, how?
    Unknown008's Avatar
    Unknown008 Posts: 8,076, Reputation: 723
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    #4

    Jul 21, 2008, 07:55 AM
    Hum, for that, I don't know... sorry... :( But surely, someone will tell you later, when that someone will find the post.
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