[speechlesstx]

John Lott, the author of Freedomnomics notes that in 2000, when we were in a recession, a Nexis search on the possibility of a recession from July through September yielded 1388 stories. In March this year the same search found 3,166 stories.

Or, even more telling, take the three months from July through September last year, when the GDP was growing at a phenomenal 4.9 percent. The same type of Google search shows 2,475 news stories.

Why do I bring this up? The main stream media sucks. If we aren't in a recession we need to be in one so their guy can get elected. On the business page of my paper today were these stories:

"Foreclosures hit rural America" (even though such statistics "are hard to come by")
"Gas prices climb"
"Delinquency high"

And my favorite from al-AP, "Shoppers' worries could worsen"

The gloomiest outlook for the economy in 35 years may be forcing Americans to live with what they have and save up for what they want...

Shoppers' economic outlook for the next six months is at a 35-year low, levels not seen since the Oil Embargo and the Watergate scandal, according to a reading last week by the Conference Board, a business-backed research group. The report showed that fewer consumers plan to buy big appliances like air conditioners, TVs and refrigerators within the next six months...

Thrift stores across the country are seeing a surge in business...

But it's not all bad...

Trend analyst Faith Popcorn, founder of the consulting firm BrainReserve, sees the "stripping down" trend as positive.

"I think we are going back to the '50s decade," said Popcorn, who expects consumers will start growing food in their own gardens and learn to extend the life of worn garments by mending them.

Oh my, get out your sewing machines people, you're going to have to make those jeans last!

Ben Stein said this:

Well, the media has been selling us on fear and recession for months maybe years now. Even before there was and really seriously bad news they were selling, selling, selling fear. They have been shouting "FIRE" in a crowded theatre now for months, quarters, I'd say probably over a year. The actual economic conditions are not that bad. I think if we have a recession, if we have a serious recession, a great deal will lie at the media's feet. And I don't know why they're doing it. They're the ones that are going to lose their jobs.

Nobody ever accused the media of being smart did they? What's it going to be folks, are you buying into the fears or seeing things objectively? If you're buying into the fears the media and politicians are selling, thanks a lot for making it harder on the rest of us. By the way, I'm growing a garden this year - but it has nothing to do with economics - fresh tomatoes right off the vine just taste so much better.

[K_3]

Aren't we a spoliled lot in America? Having to save up to buy a large appliance, what a concept. Having to possibly get by with only 1 TV in the house or 2 at the most. Wow. The government has certainly made a mess of our economy. On the other hand, we have done much of it to ourselves. Building homes 4 times the size needed, it does take resources to build those homes and lots of energy to keep them cooled and heated. Owning at least 2 SUV's, possibly more, and how much gas do they use. High school students riding a bus to school, not cool, oops, got to buy another SUV. Let them take the charge card and fill that tank. Cash, why, we can charge it and worry later.

The media has focused on the housing market creating much of this frenzie. If the price of gas were to drop it would indeed help, farmers (price of production of foods), trucking (trucking goods to destination) recreation and tourism (motels, airlines, restaurants etc) the list just goes on.

Our country used to be based on manufacturing, farming and mining. Now it is on banking, real estate and insurance. There is no longer a solid foundation. They can drop interest rates to 0 and it is not going to fix a thing. The news media will continue to throw up smoke screens and tell us what the gov't wants us to hear and believe, all in hopes that they can control our minds with their rubbish.

[speechlesstx]

K-3, as excon would say buy gold. I'm trying to have sympathy for all these people losing their homes, OK, well not so much - it reminds me of the media's poster family for the health insurance woes a while back that owned two properties and three cars. Come on people, if you don't know what you're buying, what the terms are or if you can afford it why should I not only weep for you now but bail you out of your jam?

[K_3]

I totally agree. I have been saying for the past few years as I see more and more "hummer" homes being built while property prices are skyrocketing, that at some point it all had to fall, and fall hard. Wages were certainly not rising anywhere near that rate. Newly married couples buying large homes and each driving a new vehicle. One knows they are in over their heads in debt. It was the lender and the buyer putting themselves at risk. I was VP of a bank for many years and we were very cautious. There were definite guidelines we went by. Very few 90% loans, if you had one there was extra insurance for them. Otherwise, 30% down was required. There were guidelines for debt to ration earnings on their income. Realtors have gotten creative in getting people qualified for home loans and banks not questioning it. Greed and wanting it all on all parties involved has certainly made a mess of things.

I agree with you, I never mind helping someone out who has fallen on bad luck of no choice of there own, but to help those out that made very poor choices is another matter.

[excon]

Hello Steve:

“WASHINGTON (AP) -- Big Wall Street investment companies are stepping up their borrowing a bit from the Federal Reserve's unprecedented emergency lending program.

The Federal Reserve reported Thursday that those firms averaged $38.1 billion in daily borrowing over the past week from the new lending program. That compared with $32.9 billion in the previous week and $13.4 billion in the first week the lending facility opened.

The Fed, for the first time, agreed to let big investment houses temporarily get emergency loans directly from the central bank. This mechanism, similar to one available for commercial banks for years, will continue for at least six months. It was the broadest use of the Fed's lending authority since the 1930's.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues opened the facility as it raced to deal with the sudden crash of the venerable Wall Street firm Bear Stearns (BSC, Fortune 500), which was on the brink of bankruptcy. Fearful that other investment firms could be in jeopardy given the intense fear that gripped the markets at that time, the Fed moved to give investment firms a place to go for overnight cash loans.

Banks also stepped up their borrowing from the Fed's discount window. Banks averaged $7 billion in daily borrowing for the week ending April 2. That compared with $550 million in average daily borrowing for the previous week.

The identities of commercial banks and investment houses borrowing from the Fed's emergency lending facilities are not released.”

-----------------------------------

In a nutshell, two things are happening. A meltdown is underway, and the fed is printing money as fast as it can to prevent it.

If it prevents it, it's only a short term solution. It's like whack a mole. The problem is going to pop up somewhere else. Printing money doesn't solve the problem, it just pushes it down the road.

Make no mistake about it, money borrowed from the fed, is PRINTED money. It increases the money supply without a corresponding increase in goods and services. That's inflationary. It takes a few months before these bumps show up in the numbers, but show up, they will.

Buy gold.

excon

[excon]

Hello again:

To those of you who snicker at my “buy gold”, let me run some numbers by you. For some time, I've been recommending on these boards, the purchase of gold and silver.

When I first mentioned it, gold was selling for around $600 an ounce, and silver was selling for about $9 an ounce.

Gold just touched $1,000 per ounce and silver hit $21 an ounce.

If you had invested $2,500 in a silver futures contract when I first mentioned it, your investment would be worth $80,000 today. Had you invested another $2,500 into a gold contract, that investment would today be worth $40,000.

In my view, (when those numbers I mention above post) gold is going to $1,650. If you invest $2,500 into a gold futures contract today, when gold hits $1,650, your investment will be worth $75,000.

excon

[K_3]

excon, you have never heard me snicker

[speechlesstx]

Hello again:

To those of you who snicker at my “buy gold”, let me run some numbers by you. For some time, I’ve been recommending on these boards, the purchase of gold and silver.

I ain't snickering, ex, I've always liked your suggestion. :)

[speechlesstx]

Greed and wanting it all on all parties involved has certainly made a mess of things.

I agree with you, I never mind helping someone out who has fallen on bad luck of no choice of there own, but to help those out that made very poor choices is another matter.

Not only that, but apparently we have a "bank terrorist" out there according to Michelle Malkin:

Last week, a mob of screeching protesters invaded the Bear Stearns headquarters in Manhattan demanding more aid for homeowners. As you know, I oppose federal bailouts of every make and model -- and that includes both the Bear Stearns deal and the bipartisan stimulus-palooza in Washington. But the bank-bashers who held their demonstration in New York City against Bear Stearns and JPMorgan are totally unhinged. And out of control.

Here is the face of the entitlement culture gone mad: "We will go to their neighborhood, we will educate their children on what their parents do. They should be ashamed," said Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America (NACA) founder Bruce Marks in a nasty warning issued to employees of both banks.

This is not an idle threat. Bruce Marks is no harmless lone nut. He has a proven record of showing up at children's schools and bullying them because of their parents' employment. All in the name of "social justice," of course, and securing loans for every last bad risk on the face of the planet. He's so proud of his behavior, he calls himself a "bank terrorist."

Has he earned scorn and condemnation? Of course not. As a reward for his tactics, The Boston Globe named him "Bostonian of the Year" in 2007. The paper praised his "sensible innovation." They fawned over his "curious blend of in-your-face activism, customer-focused service, Machiavellian angling, and social-justice passion." And, as The Globe reported in its cover feature on Marks, there is no line of decency this housing shakedown artist won't cross. Welcome to the subprime politics of personal destruction:

"Marks and his yellow-T-shirted followers have swarmed shareholders' meetings with enough force to shut them down. They have picketed outside the schools attended by the children of bank CEOs, pressing the youngsters in signs and chants to answer for the actions of their daddies. And they even once distributed scandal sheets to every house in one CEO's neighborhood, detailing the affair he was allegedly having with a subordinate. In time, that CEO, like most of the others that NACA targeted, sat down with Marks and signed a deal.

"To those who found his tactics an outrageous invasion of bank executives' personal lives, Marks refused to acknowledge any line between home and work. 'What you do is who you are,' he says. 'It's all personal.'"

My leftist opponents have labeled me a "stalker" for publicizing the public contact information of anti-war activists who ran military recruiters off their college campus -- and for researching, documenting and challenging the assets of a two-property, three-car-owning Democratic poster family held up as unassailable arguments for massive government health insurance expansions. Meanwhile, housing entitlement bully Bruce Marks gets citizen-of-the-year accolades while rolling in housing hustle dough.

You see, it's all about the money for Marks' group, which browbeats banks and lenders into billion-dollar deals to allow its left-wing activists to arrange mortgages for their high-risk constituents. NACA -- with dozens of offices across the country -- has a no down payment, no closing costs, low interest rate policy for low-income minority borrowers and takes a hefty fee for each transaction.

NACA loan applicants are then required to attend workshops glorifying the group's protest thuggery. Those whose loans are approved must then pledge to assist the group in five "actions" (like the one at Bear Stearns' headquarters) per year. When they're not clamoring for more homeowner funds and federal Community Reinvestment Act money, they're bombarding the feds with regulatory complaints to halt any planned bank mergers or expansions.

Those radical actions have yielded a windfall as fearful corporations fork over money to preempt Marks' extortionist mau-mau-ing. In 2003, Citigroup coughed up $3 billion in mortgage loans to NACA through 2013. Bank of America, which first partnered with (succumbed to) NACA in 1995, handed over $6 billion through 2015.

Let me repeat the threat he issued at the Bear Stearns protest last week: "We will go to their neighborhood, we will educate their children on what their parents do. They should be ashamed." If any prominent liberals have criticized Marks' tactics, I haven't heard them. Have you?

Lesson learned: Screaming "racist" pays.

I've said before on these boards that a big part of the housing meltdown was self-inflicted and this guy's a perfect example. For decades the left has been browbeating lenders and the feds into easing credit restrictions and making more money available for people that wouldn't otherwise qualify for a loan. Now that they've gotten their way and all these people are defaulting they blame it on lenders' greed and poor government oversight. Welcome to "affordable housing."

I see all this economic gloom and doom the same way. Sure there are problems but they haven't been as bad as the media and the left want us to believe, and since this is an election year voilà, it's time to put fear into the citizens' minds and before you know it, another self-inflicted wound for the left to save us from. And apparently no tactic is too outrageous for some of these self-anointed social saviors.

[K_3]

Thank you for the information. This campaign seems to have been going on a long time. It will be seem very nice when it is all over. I am quite tired of hearing all the banter.
The bank I worked for was quite conservative and weathered many a storm. The Feds stepped in and made them make some loans they were not comfortable with. I have to say most went elsewhere because we took too long by checking into the application more than other banks did.
I cannot imagine bullying children. That is so wrong.

[George_1950]

Thank you for the information. This campaign seems to have been going on a long time. It will be seem very nice when it is all over. I am quite tired of hearing all the banter.
The bank I worked for was quite conservative and weathered many a storm. The Feds stepped in and made them make some loans they were not comfortable with. I have to say most went elsewhere because we took too long by checking into the application more than other banks did.
I cannot imagine bullying children. That is so wrong.

The campaign never ends when there is a Republican president; it will quieten if and when a Dem/Fascist is elected, at which time everything will be hunky-dory.

[K_3]

If the 3 candidates it has been narrowed down to is America's finest. We are in big trouble.

[BABRAM]

The economy is the number one issue among most voters. The question of length of the recession is debatable since some economic analysts think the culprit is the fallen housing market alone. Personally I side with the view that the mismanagement started at the top for a variety of reasons, including the ongoing war in Iraq.

[magprob]

I still think the dollar has been hyper-inflated to the point of losing its elasticity. We need a new fiat currency that has mass, world wide appeal. A currency that people around the world will really relate to and want to hold. A currency with Disney characters pictures and lots of pretty colors. Mickey Mouse should be on the hundred dollar bill and Goofy should be on the 50. On the back there should be a picture of the Matterhorn with Tinkerbelle hovering just above it dropping one dollar bills all over the world below.
In Fantasy We Trust.

[tomder55]

Gold & silver is close to peak . If I held a lot of it for investment purposes I'd be looking to sell before the bubble busts. I think the stock market is a great place to find bargains at this time. Think long term.

From a techincal point there has not been 2 consecutive qtrs of negative growth ;so no recession... yet. If there is one it will be short lived nationally although there are regions of the country that heve been in recession for some time.

Bill Clinton ran on the pledge of massive middle income tax cuts. It did not take him long once elected to reverse course and give us one of the biggest tax increases in US history. Hillary this weekend announced her campaign position favoring huge middle class tax cuts.. .

[BABRAM]

I'm on my way out the door for work, so I'll be brief. I think the money I was going to spend at the jeweler will have to wait. I wanted to add some gold to a ring and make some modifications. Maybe I'll end using silver or some other metal. The middle class tax cuts Hillary proposes appears to be across the board and McCain, I think targets more of upper-middle class. I know we all like tax cuts, that only normal. But with so much money destined for Iraq every month, the Republican tax cuts make little sense under evaluation. The figures will not balance and this sounds like just more Dubya.

[tomder55]

By the way, I'm growing a garden this year - but it has nothing to do with economics - fresh tomatoes right off the vine just taste so much better.

Have been growing a garden for the last 15 years . You just can't beat the taste of fresh produce. To me it is also a therapeutic (as well as a physical ) exercise .

The 1950s hmmm seems like a more sane time to me . We did not buy McMansions ;we did not go out to eat frequently . We made things last. Was there a problem with that ? I guess that would be the equivalent of economic sabotage today .

Doom and gloomers have been doing the chicken-little thing for 6 years . The recent news of the unemployment rate creeping up to 5.1% is treated by some as the worse economy since the Great Depression. I guess it is useless to remind folks that Clinton easily won reelection in 1996 by claiming that he was running a no "pink-slip nation" . The unemployment rate then was 5.4%

I would also remind everyone that the Democrats have been the majority in Congress this past year. What have they done to help the economy? I say part of the reason for the uncertainty is because everyone has been waiting for the Democrats in Congress to throw fuel into the fire; into what is essentially an economic correction after an unusually long period of uninterrupted growth.
You want a deep economic downturn ? I suggest then that you consider Obama's idea of raising the effective tax rate on entrepreneurs to 65%.

[magprob]

[QUOTE=tomder55]Gold & silver is close to peak . If I held a lot of it for investment purposes I'd be looking to sell before the bubble busts. I think the stock market is a great place to find bargains at this time. Think long term.

From a techincal point there has not been 2 consecutive qtrs of negative growth ;so no recession... yet. If there is one it will be short lived nationally although there are regions of the country that heve been in recession for some time. QUOTE]

That's what I hear. I don't believe it but then who am I to question anything they tell me on the TV.

[tomder55]

In macroeconomics, a recession is a decline in a country's real gross domesticIn macroeconomics, a , a recession is a decline in a country's real is a decline in a country's real gross domestic product (GDP), or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive quarters of a year. product (GDP), or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive quarters of a year.

Recession - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

As far as gold and silver why would anyone advise that someone should purchase it if it is already at record highs ? I think gold has already begun it's decline. If I was going to buy commodities I would've invested in corn when the gvt. Made the foolish decision to promote ethanol.

[magprob]

When our beloved Federal Reserve stops cutting interest rates so the dollar can deflate then and only then will we stop heading for a complete depression. We have been in a recession for some time with the job cuts and higher prices to prove it. It is as apparent as the nose on Bernanke's face.