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Dark_crow · Nov 20, 2007, 05:21 PM

For the record, I’m going with “fizzle,” not slide.
Is there some media conspiracy to “get” Fred, or has he simply served up, chopped Liver?:p

BABRAM · Nov 20, 2007, 06:49 PM

Wow! Thompson doesn't appear on the radar. I'm surprised because he took so long in contemplating the candidacy bid in the first place and that made me think he was going to head into this race at full speed. I also thought he'd at least attempt to ride the glory of Reagan's career path and be more visible running ads on similar comparison. I'm not hearing a peep out of this guy in Nevada. I didn't find him in the latest Iowa polls either. Rudy's another one taking a backseat as he takes third in the polls. As I heard one recent news talk commentator suggest that Rudy and Hillary were the same person. Rudy starting to appear as a Democrat is not good news for a someone running as a Republican.

Mitt Romney leads Republicans | DesMoinesRegister.com | The Des Moines Register

Bobby

Fr_Chuck · Nov 20, 2007, 07:10 PM

You have to get up, to slide down, you have to burn to fizzle,

Sort of just never left the stands. I was sort of surprised, he just never made any good showing at all.

tomder55 · Nov 21, 2007, 04:41 AM

Don't count Thompson out yet. He is running against conventional wisdom so the national media decided from the start that he doesn't have the fire and desire to do what it takes. But he is right in that it is ridiculous to have a 2+ year election cycle for the Presidency .

Thompson is very much your common man . There is an appeal to his down home laid back style that most of America identifies with. He doesn't show in the polling because he got a late start in Iowa. Perhaps he figures he has a month left and the State may be burned out with the rest of the candidates who have already been in the State for over a year .He only sent out his first direct mailing to Republicans in the State yesterday . I think it is clear that Romney will win in Iowa but 2nd and 3rd place is very much open and Thompson is in the running for a strong showing. Nobody's support in the state is solid. RealClearPolitics - Articles - The New Fire in Fred's Belly

Thompson's] campaign strategists told me they are pouring tons of money into Iowa advertising. They see a strong opportunity for a Thompson surge in the state, undermining Romney and inflicting damage on Giuliani.

He needs to tread water until the Southern primaries. South Carolina is the key. No eventual Republican nominee has lost the state primary .

But the point you are trying to make is that there was a sense of anticipation surrounding his entry into the race. It was expected that he would lift the Reagan mantle and that the base would flock to his banner. This expectation did not match Thompson's style and it really was unfair to Thompson to create that expectation. Instead of presenting an air of inevitability he has ho-hummed and aw shucks his way through the campaign. He established high expectations through his very successful radio commentary and blogging . But it has not translated well on the stumpand the press has already decided that he was flawed because he did not live up to their expectations.

He also did not set the table well for a national campaign.I think his original staff thought he could continue his stumping from the key-board . Instead he has to go out the old fashion way and shake hands/kiss babies. Most of his original staff has been replaced and that left an impression of a disorganized and lack luster effort. The shake up of his staff caused more delay after he had announced .The appearance became that he just wasn't really interested in the job.

Again ;this is an unfair characterization . His policy positions are in many cases more complex and detailed than any other candidates. Be it immigration, national defense, the War on Terror, health insurance ,the economy ,social security ;he has detailed positions published.

So where does he go from here ? There is still time .He has in the past been a late finisher. His first Senate run he trailed by 20 points at one time before winning by an even larger margin. But he has got to begin to cater not only to the South but to a larger cross section of the country. What works in Tennessee does not work as well in New Hampshire (which I think he is outright conceding ) and Iowa. They are used to sitting down with candidates in coffee shops and hashing the issues out directly .

ETWolverine · Nov 21, 2007, 08:05 AM

I am indeed surprised that the candidate who was generating the biggest buzz before he announced his candidacy is generating so little buzz now.

On the other hand, I'm not so sure that Fred is "fizzling". If you take a look at the poll numbers, he's really not fizzling at all.

In a review of the Republican candidates for the Presidential nomination, the recent poll numbers are as follows:

Fox news: 11/13-11/14/07
Rudy - 33%
McCain - 17%
Fred - 12%
Romney - 8%

Gallup Poll Nov. 11-14, 2007
Rudy - 28%
Fred - 19%
McCain - 13%
Romney - 12%

American Research Group poll. Nov. 9-12, 2007
Rudy Giuliani 25%
Romney 21%
Fred 17%
McCain 12%

Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll. Nov. 8-11, 2007
Rudy 29%
McCain 12%
Romney 12%
Fred 12%

Associated Press-Ipsos Nov. 5-7, 2007
Rudy 29%
Fred 19%
McCain 13%
Romney 12%

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll Nov. 1-5, 2007
Rudy 33%
McCain 16%
Fred 15%
Romney 11%

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Nov. 2-4, 2007
Rudy 28%
Fred 19%
McCain 16%
Romney 11%

[edit:
Averages for above polls
Rudy: 29.28%
Fred: 16.14%
McCain: 14.14%
Romney: 12.43%]

So among Republicans, Fred is solidly in second place, and either ahead of or in a statistical dead heat with McCain in most polls. Not a bad position to be it if you really aren't planning on turning on the juice until February or March 2008.

Now... let's look at the general election in a hypothetical case of Fred against Hillary as compared to Rudy against Hillary.

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Nov. 13-14, 2007
Fred v. Hillary
Fred 40%
Hillary 49%

Rudy v Hillary
Rudy 43%
Hillary 47%

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll Nov. 1-5, 2007
Fred v. Hillary
Fred 37%
Hillary 51%

Rudy v Hillary
Rudy 45%
Hillary 46%

Newsweek Poll Oct. 31-Nov. 1 2007
Fred v. Hillary
Fred 45%
Hillary 49%

Rudy v Hillary
Rudy 45%
Hillary 49%

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 2007
Fred v. Hillary
Fred 40%
Hillary 56%

Rudy v Hillary
Rudy 46%
Hillary 50%

So you see, Thompson is right behind Giuliani in terms of being able to compete with Hillary. In several cases the are in a statistical dead heat, and in others, Fred's a close #2. Again, that's not a bad position to be in if you aren't planning on really turning on the campaign until next year.

I don't think Fred is fizzling or melting down. But he is certainly running an unconventional campaign, and I'm not sure whether it will work for him or not.

Elliot

BABRAM · Nov 21, 2007, 08:54 AM

Iowa's latest poll I addressed in my first post. I think the first caucus race to be decided is in Iowa, then next comes New Hampshire. Here is data from the latest polls taken in New Hampshire with a summary dateline and averge.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - New Hampshire Republican Primary

Bobby

tomder55 · Nov 21, 2007, 09:06 AM

I think it is safe to say he is not trying in NH Even Ron Paul is out polling him there . He has his eyes set on the Feb 5 multi-state primary date.

BABRAM · Nov 21, 2007, 09:30 AM

I expect Fred to do heavy campaigning in California and west coast States. If I recall correctly, Reagan, was one of the few Republican presidential candidates that garnished strong support in the State, perhaps due to his charisma and acting comrades.

Bobby

Dark_crow · Nov 21, 2007, 09:59 AM

His poll numbers certainly 'fizzled' from what they were before he announced his candidacy; on the other side of the coin his poll numbers reflected peoples agreement to his position on issues near and dear to them. I expect to see a 'surge' after the first of the year, and yes, I think his plan is the south, mid-west and west coast. I actually think he is the best candidate and hope he is the next President.

tomder55 · Nov 26, 2007, 08:45 AM

Thompson was on Chris Wallace's show Fox News Sunday yesterday.FOXNews.com - Transcript: Fred Thompson on 'FOX News Sunday' - FOX News Sunday | Chris Wallace

When he wasn't complaining about biased coverage by Fox ,he unveiled a pretty detailed tax relief plan. He disputes his campaign is fizzling and points to the national polling as proof . He is 2nd behind Rudy in natonal polls.

The outline of his tax plan is :

* Permanently extend the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts

* Permanently repeal the Death Tax

* Repeal the Alternative Minimum Tax

* Reduce the corporate tax rate to no more than 27%

* Permanently extend small business expensing

* Update and simplify depreciation schedules

* Expand taxpayer choice

Thompson Plan for Tax Relief and New Economic Growth

He would offer the taxpayers the choice of continuing in the existing system or opting to file under a new simpler and closer to a "flat tax" option.

The' Club for Growth' likes it

The Club For Growth - http://www.clubforgrowth.org

This is now the 4th detailed "white paper " he has released since he began the campaign. The others are about Immigration,Social Security ,and Armed Forces Reform .