[Choux]

"We can see in hindsight how incumbent parties get blamed and creamed in federal elections, as Republicans did in 1932 during the Depression and Democrats did in 1994 after the failure of health care. We rarely see disaster in advance. But with 13 months to go, current trend lines indicate that a perfect storm is gathering force and will likely decimate Republican strength in federal and state races in November 2008.

Not one but four separate seismic events together will - short of another terrorist attack or a new war against Iran - alter the electoral terrain of America.

*Iraq*: Consider the numbers: Opinion polls show that consistent majorities of 70% want the war to end soon and 60% believe Bush misled us into this conflict. When asked which party can best handle Iraq, it was Democrats by 49% to 34% in the most recent ABC News/Washington Post poll. This is undeniably the Republicans' war.

What exactly can GOP candidates say next fall in the face of no WMD, no link between Saddam and 9/11, no flowers for "liberators," nearly 5million Iraqis displaced, tens of thousands of American dead or wounded as well as some 100,000 Iraqis killed - not to mention an increase in terrorism worldwide? "Give us more time" for a war that's lasted longer than World War II?

*The Economy*: Most economic forecasters are predicting a one-in-two chance of a recession due to the foreclosure crisis leading to a credit crisis. Even if there's no recession but merely a slowdown, incumbent parties historically lose seats and the White House when economic growth falls below 3% in the election year.

At the same time, the Bush administration's record on spending and deficits - turning a projected $5.6 trillion surplus into huge deficits - is dividing the GOP's own business base, according to the Wall Street Journal last week. When asked which party would better maintain prosperity, it's now Democrats by 54%-34%, according to Gallup.

*Intolerance*: The GOP claiming to be the "party of Lincoln" is a pretense long beyond its expiration date. Bush's small gain in the black vote from 8% in 2000 to 11% in 2004 helped achieve his narrow victory. But the recent refusal of leading Republican presidential candidates to attend key black, Latino and gay debates prodded former vice presidential nominee Jack Kemp to complain, "We sound like we don't want immigration; we sound like we don't want black people to vote for us."

It won't suffice any longer for 2008 convention organizers to put minority delegates on the stage, hoping pictures will substitute for policy.

*Children*: President Bush made good on his threat to veto the expansion of the S-CHIP program to extend health insurance to another 4 million children, notwithstanding the support of 43 governors and overwhelming public approval. He complains that such a move would socialize health care. But will he now end Medicare and Medicaid? It approaches political suicide to elevate the rhetoric of free market fundamentalism over the reality of millions of children lacking health insurance.

Pro-war, anti-growth, anti-minority, anti-child. Not a formula for success. Then several other realities combine to dig Republicans into an even deeper hole. Democrats are now more trusted on nearly every domestic and foreign policy issue. The number of Americans who self-identify as Republican is at a seven-year low. And then there's the fact that Republicans are defending 22 Senate seats in 2008 compared to 12 for the Democrats.

Adding it all up: Look for Democrats to end up with a near filibuster-proof 58 Senate seats (up from 51) and 260 House seats (up from 213 in 2005).

For when there's a tidal wave of sentiment, it doesn't tip some close contests but nearly all close contests. What John Kenneth Galbraith said of Black Monday 1932 is true for the GOP today: "The end had come, but it was not yet in sight." Mark Green, Blogging

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The end has come for the Republicans. With a list of lackluster candidates, it looks like a changing of the guard in 2008. Do you think that the Republicans can come up with an attractive candidate as those running now are not acceptable to all their factions?

[Dark_crow]

The main problem as I see it is not with who the republicans have running, but rather the issues; and on that count the republicans only lead on one issue, and that is immigration. The war, health care, the economy, taxes, spending and health insurance for children are issues where the Democrats lead in American public opinion.

[Choux]

They do fail terribly on the issues as the article pointed out.

I expect even worst attacks from the Republican Noise and Propaganda Machine next year. We see that has started already from the "swiftboating" of that poor kid who made the commercial for passage of the healthcare bill!

I think the country is just so done with Republicans and the *results* of their government and their low down tactics.

[tomder55]

Got to love it ;the President of Airhead America radio is warning the Republicans about a perfect storm . He should be looking for the next benefactor to bail out his network.

He is living in an alternate universe so here is the perfect storm right aback at him.

Iraq. The Democrats persistent and unrelenting efforts to undermine our troops will backfire. This latest effort with Pelosi and her attempt to anger Turkey and cause a war with the Kurds shows how low the Democrats will go to achieve a political end.

Economy. Our economy is pretty good. Unemployment is at historic lows and interest rates are still decent. The stock market is near record highs . One small sector of our economy is suffering and the MSM have latched onto it as their hope. Most MSM is in trouble . Just check out the financial woes of the NY Slimes .They are losing money and don't know why .So obviously if they are losers it is because the economy sucks . It can't be their own incompetence.

Intolerance . The party that invented the system of perpetual dependency on the nanny state had better keep a low profile on intolerance.

Children . The Democrats continue to perpetrate the lie that reducing the rate of increase is a cut. Mark Green dares to in one breath talk about deficit spending while at the same time push for the growth of unfunded entitlements. The hypocrisy is amazing !


Is Hillary acceptable to any of the Democrat faction ? Not according to my read of the netroots .

Hillary is the unifying factor for the Republicans . The petty differences of the Republican big tent will not matter when it comes down to the choice of Hillary and anyone else.

[Choux]

He made excellent points. As usual, all you have are insults. American voters are tired of that tactic in politics.

[speechlesstx]

The end has come for the Republicans.

LOL, do honestly believe what you say?

Granted, it's not been a good few years for Republicans but I do think the American people will come to their senses and realize Hillary would be a disaster for this country. Hillary told the Boston Globe, "I have a million ideas. The country can't afford them all." You can sure bet she'll try.

I did watch most of the debate Sunday and was impressed with several candidates but they do need to start giving us more substance and fewer mentions of Reagan. However, even though they seem to be trying to "out-Reagan" each other, I don't think Froma Harrop's contention that John Edwards is the most Reagan-like is going to gain any traction. Republicans will be just fine as long as Democrats keep insisting on the kind of leaders they have now.

[ETWolverine]

Yeah, a perfect storm.

Sustained progress in Iraq... so much so that even Democrats are jumping ship on the idea of an early pullout.

An economy that, despite the problems in the sub-prime mortgage market, continues to have record low levels of unemployment, low inflation, high retail sales, increasing compensation levels, etc.

A unified stance by 70%+ of the country on the immigration issue behind the conservative policies. Even residents of blue states are backing republicans on this one... 72% of New Yorkers are against Gov. Spitzer's plan to give drivers licenses to illegals.

A record of supporting tax cuts that were enjoyed at all tax levels, and which resulted in the economic situation that I described above.

Democratic Congressional poll numbers that are WORSE than any in history, and worse than Bush's poll numbers.

Yeah, the Republicans are in trouble now...

Elliot

[tomder55]

American voters are tired of that tactic in politics.

... as Representative Peter Stark was just saying .

[speechlesstx]

He made excellent points. As usual, all you have are insults. American voters are tired of that tactic in politics.

You're right, we are tired of those tactics. :D

[tomder55]

Lol

[Dark_crow]

lol

It all just makes you want to do one of those Howard Dean screams!! :D

[speechlesstx]

Yeah, the GOP has its problems but Hillary's just got worse:

Hillary Clinton may be the Democratic Party's 2008 presidential front-runner but she also tops the list when voters are asked for whom they would never, ever cast a ballot, a poll out Monday found.

Fully 50 percent of US voters say that when it comes to Clinton, she can campaign all she likes but there is no way in the world she can win their support, with her negative rating up slightly from 46 percent in March, the Zogby poll said.

Older voters were the most hostile to the attorney and former first lady-turned US senator, who is seeking to become the first woman US president. Fifty-nine percent of those over 65 said they would never vote for Clinton, according to the survey which ranked leading Democratic and Republican hopefuls.

Count me among those that would never, ever, ever vote for Hillary.

[excon]

Hello:

Cry as you might, the Republicans are going to get creamed. And, I mean REALLY creamed. Mark my words. Hillary is unstoppable. She WILL be the next president. The Dems will GET their 60 votes in the Senate.

The war, the hypocrisy, the spending, the dismantling of our freedoms, the ineptitude are ALL going to come home to roost. Like I said earlier, the country gave the Republicans a chance. They had EVERYTHING, and couldn't do squat with it.

I know, I know, you're going to blame the media. Bwa, ha ha ha ha.

excon

[speechlesstx]

It all just makes you want to do one of those Howard Dean screams!!!:D

YEAAAAAARRRRRRRGGggghhh!!

[Dark_crow]

Hello:

Cry as you might, the Republicans are gonna get creamed. And, I mean REALLY creamed. Mark my words. Hillary is unstoppable. She WILL be the next president. The Dems will GET their 60 votes in the Senate.

The war, the hypocrisy, the spending, the dismantling of our freedoms, the ineptitude are ALL gonna come home to roost. Like I said earlier, the country gave the Republicans a chance. They had EVERYTHING, and couldn't do squat with it.

I know, I know, you're gonna blame the media. Bwa, ha ha ha ha.

excon

But the ‘HUNS are at the gate’!!

Who wants a wimp at this time?:D

[excon]

But the 'HUNS are at the gate'!!!! Who wants a wimp at this time?:D

Hello again, DC:

I didn't say I like her. I didn't say she's good. I said she's going to win.

I don't think she's a wimp, though. You only think she is because she's a she. Her voting record, however, indicates she's a reall bada$$. After all, she just gave your schmo the authority to bomb Iran.

excon

[Dark_crow]

Hello again, DC:

I didn't say I like her. I didn't say she's good. I said she's gonna win. I don't think she's a wimp, though.

You only think she is because she's a she. Her voting record, however, indicates she's a reall bada$$. After all, she just gave your schmo the authority to bomb Iran.

excon

Let’s hope she has better sense than Bush; bowing and sniveling about Turkey’s Armenian Genocide Resolution. Unfortunately for Turkey, the governments of 22 nations worldwide and 40 states here in the U.S. know different because their schoolbooks and newspapers aren’t censored, and their writers and journalists aren’t prosecuted (or murdered) for telling the truth.:)

[Choux]

Wow, all the right wing radicals are out in full force!
LOLOLOL!

Nothing scares these boys like citing the Bush/Republican record!!

[kindj]

Wow, all the right wing radicals are out in full force!
LOLOLOL!!

Nothing scares these boys like citing the Bush/Republican record!!!!

And nothing generates mindless attacks like citing the liberal Democrat record!!

[tomder55]

It just cracks me up that it is Mark Green posting this nonsense . Democrats like Green ruled NYC for 100 years leading it down a path of decay. Rudy took NY from a Dem run cesspool and made it a decent place to live again battling the likes of Mark Green the whole way .

In the name of nepotism ,NY dumped Green in favor of Andrew Cuomo for AG last year derailing his political ambitions .

But his real estate tycoon brother threw him a life-line and Green used the money to purchase the floundering Airhead America ;where they tried their smear campaign against conservatives last week by making the false claim that Randi Rhodes was mugged by "the right wing hate machine" after she had fallen drunk after a binge drinking night .