[Dark_crow]

And during its preparation, which should be as obvious to Turkey, I can’t help but wonder why Turkey is apparently going to invest 2.5 Billion in Iran. I mean I understand Turkey’s interest in getting some control over Iran’s natural gas reserves but surly they must realize that it is going to have a great impact on Iran’s ability to go to war. Iran is already embarked on foreign adventures in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Ahmadinejad has openly said he intends to create an Iranian-led Axis that will unite the Middle East in the battle against America. So what’s up with Turkey?

[labman]

Yeah, and the nitwits in congress that want to slap Turkey around over something that happened almost a 100 years ago.

[Dark_crow]

The Armenians who have been lobbing for it wouldn't agree, to them it is very important. But I suppose the left would be happy about it. Doing that may cause the loss of Americans to use Turkish air space, and given about 2/3rds of supplies going through there for Iraq.

[Skell]

Yeah, and the nitwits in congress that want to slap Turkey around over something that happened almost a 100 years ago.

Although that issue may not seem important to you there are many that it is!

[tomder55]

You forgot Iran's interference in Afghaistan also .

Turkey is an interesting case study . Our diplomatic corp has always had their hands full dealing with them .Recent events will tax Condi Rice's skills . Turkey really has not decided what they want to be ;European or Middle Eastern .They are right in the cross road, as they have always been. Remember ,it was not that long ago that Turkey was a hegemon.

They have been since the beginning of the modern Turkish state, a secularist state .But this summer they elected an Islamist as President ;Abdullah Gul , from the Justice and Development Party (AK).So now for the 1st time since it's founding 80 years ago an Islamist party runs all the major parts of their government .I suspect that the AK will try to remove the secular institutions .

Any move in that direction would be a pretty significant shift in the balance in the region. Turkey has a defense pact with Israel since 1996 . I wonder if it will continue with the new leadership (although the great unknown is the Turkey military . Cross them and Gul will go down) .

Turkey has acted as a restraining influence on Iranian adventurism.This move towards Islamism could reduce their influence ;or even worse ,as I mentioned shift the balance further in Iran's favor. The only way this assumption does not play out is if Turkey assumes it's traditional role as a major regional power AND aligns itself with the west .

Iran and Turkey have a common interest in putting down Kurdish sovereignty . The under reported news from Iraq has been the disturbing numbers of Iranian incursions into Iraq Kurdistan this summer. Turkey has also threatened to invade.

There have been tensions between the US and Turkey since the invasion . The 4th ID was going to use Turkey as an entry point into Iraq . When Turkey suddenly refused ;the 4th ID lost valuable time .They had to board ships and travel to Kuwait.They had been slotted to enter into Anbar and the Sunni provinces through Turkey .Because of the shift ;the US did not get significant troops into the region until the invasion was essentially over . I think it had an impact on the post invasion insurgency.

Congress condemned Turkey over the Armenian genocide ;something that should've been done years ago .Instead they waited until our relationship with Turkey is at it's lowest point ,and a significant thawing of relations between Turkey and Iran is happening . From a strict human rights approach Congress did the right thing .But from a geo-political view their timing could not have been worse.

Iran and Turkey have just completed a pipeline which will carry 500,000 barrels a day of Iranian oil into Turkey .Turkey can use that to redirect it to Europe either through port or by pipe-line. As you pointed out ;Turkey announced a $3.5 Billion investment in the South Pars gas field. Again the ultimate plan is to pipe it to Europe. Turkey will become a major energy hub just at the time the EU is looking for alternatives to the fickle Russian supply.

Turkey has the 18th highest GDP in the world, and it has been growing at between 5 - 8 percent a year It has the largest economy of any Muslim country; including Saudi Arabia.. It's economy continues to grow and with it will come increasing political influence.

Europe appears to be the wild card . Turkey still desires entry into the EU. But the EU will not permit entry without significant economic ,human rights ,and constitutional reforms in Turkey. There are significant challenges to Turkey's entrance Even though they are technically on the European continent they are worlds away culturally. They have had strained relations with some of their European neighbors like Greece ,and as we have seen this week ,memories are long lasting .There was a time not that long ago when Turkey was a major existential threat to the Europeans. Then again ;there was a time not that long ago that European powers were existential threats to each other .History does not dictate the future.

The new dynamics may stain their relationship with Israel and the US .It could strengthen Iran ,which is the last thing we need. But hopefully the carrot of EU entry will be enough to keep Turkey in check,and the optimist in me hopes that Turkey will become a significant counter to Iranian claims of regional control .

[Dark_crow]

I'm not convinced that Turkey is all that stable. My biggest concern is the failure of the secular government, the fact is Turkey's secularism is under attack with occasionally overt challenges designed to expand the public space of Islamic precepts at the expense of the secular public space. There is a trend towards Shariatization of various aspects of Turkish life, and given a constitution has yet to come forth declaring a separation between church and state we just have no way of knowing which direction they are going to take. The risk of course is a coalition with Iran.

Quotes below are from Turkey's now retired last ambassador to the United States.

“In the coming period, even under the best of conditions, Turkey will be faced with important foreign policy problems in Cyprus, Iraq, Iran, and Armenia and on Aegean questions with Greece. EU accession talks will continue to be frustrating. Relations with the U.S. are likely to be plagued by the issues of separatist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Iraq and the Armenian resolutions in the Congress.

A host of energy-related questions and environmental problems, particularly global warming, draught and water scarcity are to pose difficult challenges. Huge foreign debt, trade and balance-of-payments deficits, hot money, chronic failure to generate new employment despite economic growth, regional imbalances, skewed income distribution, deteriorating agricultural sector will be among the main economic concerns. Lack of equal opportunities in education, gender equality issues, inadequate social services and medical care will also demand the government's attention and resources. Terrorism is likely to continue to take its toll and the Kurdish issue could become more urgent and demanding.”


Turkey: today and tomorrow - Turkish Daily News Sep 12, 2007

[tomder55]

Yes Turkey is of major concern . That makes the resolution more puzzling... especially since a resolution about this was already passed in 1975 .

U.S. House of Representatives Joint Resolution 148

Do the Democrats who sponsor this want to push Turkey away from our alliance ?

[Dark_crow]

Yeah Tom, I alluded to that in post #3… But I suppose the left would be happy about it. Doing that may cause the loss of Americans to use Turkish air space…

I did not research the 27 yes votes.

[Dark_crow]

A question comes to my mind, and that is, why all the moaning about calling a 'crime in international law' Genocide. I mean, that is a Jewish thing isn't it? I feel the same about the 'Hate Crimes'. Really it is just a way to create an emotional impact of the atrocity story. And frankly, in this case there is not even anyone to prosecute.