[paraclete]

You have to wonder, are we watching a militant group, or a criminal business. Whatever might be happening it is apparent that ISIS fighters have an ability to move freely from country to country. Libya is now under threat from ISIS in a well organised move as fighters return from Syria. This is the west's worst nightmare, that the fighting is not contained to Syria and Iraq

ISIS comes to Libya - CNN.com

There is, perhaps, one advantage the west can exploit the fighters in Libya are much more accessible than those in Syria

[tomder55]

and we haven't even mentioned the failed state of Yemen ;and it's strategic local.

[paraclete]

Yes Tom the fight has been going on in Yemen for quite a while, not sure if ISIS is involved there but AQAP and the US certainly is. I'm sure the Saudi keep a close eye on Yemen and let's not forget Al Shabbab is almost destroyed in Somalia, their fighters have to go somewhere

[tomder55]

the problem is that just like in Syria ,Yemen is a proxy war between radical jihadistan Sunni and radical jihadistan Shia . It appears to me that the emperor is closer than ever for formalizing a rapprochement with the 12ers in Tehran aka radical jihadistan Shia. The cost of this will be recognition of the Iranian nuke and hegemony . We are already assisting them towards those dual goals.

[paraclete]

Candidly tom I don't think they are the threat you think them to be. Sure they have a low opinion of your foreign policy, but then who doesn't, and they have been on the receiving end of it more than most, and survived, but it is time to bring them in from the cold before they become even more comfortable with Russia who has no qualms about their nuclear program. Russia is exploiting them and you don't want that to happen because the threat was always Russia.

You can't get anywhere in the UN with Russia on the security council so you have to develop coalitions to deal with problems. One way of dealing with ISIS is to unleash Iran and accept that Iraq is lost to you anyway. It was always going to be so. Assard is even starting to look like the lesser of two evils

[tomder55]

I don't think they are the threat you think them to be

they won't be if the 12ers are ever overthrown. But so long as they are still in power ,then they are apocalyptic ideologues who will soon have nukes and missiles that can deliver them in the region. It is fortunate that we now will have a Senate that will take down any deal that emperor Neville negotiates with them.

We have fumbled our relations with Russia poisoning the well when both of us have a mutual interest in containing jihadistan. But nothing better showcases the emperor's confusion over foreign policy than this screwy idea that as part of a nuclear deal ,Iran would ship enriched uranium to Russia, and Russia would then process it for 'Iranian civilian usage'. How stupid do they think we are ? And do you REALLY think that they can act as responsible neighbors in the region ? They have never shown that in the past. Instead they have been one of the leading state sponsors of terrorism. What you will have is a rogue terror sponsoring nation with the world's most potent weapon. Oh no doubt one of their proxies will deliver the coup de grace allowing them deniability .

[talaniman]

So we should nuke Iran, then nuke Russia? Nice plan!

[tomder55]

don't worry ,I'm sure the plan is to drop sanctions on both Russia and Iran and then sing Kum bya while roasting smores by an open fire.

[NeedKarma]

Like you did(doing) with Cuba?

[paraclete]

What you will have is a rogue terror sponsoring nation with the world's most potent weapon.

A little like your friends in Pakistan? No wait, they were fighting your enemies so they are OK. I think you have been well trained by the Israeli's to assume that the enemy of my friend is my enemy and this is preventing progress

[tomder55]

blaming the Jews again ?

[paraclete]

A reference to Israel is not blaming the jews. There is no doubt there is a strong lobby favouring Israel in your nation. No I'm not blaming them but if the Iran thing is ever going to be solved the question of Israel is in the pot, it is a much greater barrier than nuclear energy. I could see a trade off, very logical. You recognise Israel and you can have your nuclear program.

We also have the Palestinian problem, Hamas is like the early PLO, which is now Fatah, only nastier and I see no early solutions to that problem and demolishing houses doesn't help. The Arabs don't want them and nor does Israel and that is the elephant in the room. I could see Israel coexisting with the west bank, that wall has done wonders for calming relations, but you couldn't build one deep enough or high enough in Gaza

[paraclete]

ISIS is getting a pounding and suddenly the media has gone quiet. I expect success isn't as important as carnage

[tomder55]

People are getting bored by their gruesome videos . They worked initially in their recruitment drive ;and hid one of their great weaknesses. They can't operate as a "state " . Their standing army is still a terrorist group and more important ;they can't provide the services a state is required to provide. They can take territory by massing their troops (making them easier targets to the air campaign) ;but they have maxed out in their ability to hold and govern the territory they seize .

We can give a big hat tip to the boots on the ground. The Iraqi Army has made a come back after it's initial defeats ;and even more important ,the Kurdish Peshmerga has taken the fight to them in Syria . When will the west realize that the Kurds are our natural ally in the region and have earned our support ?

[paraclete]

Yes Tom but it is not convenient to recognise the Kurds, it will upset both Turkey and Iraq whose Kurdish populations have nationalistic aspirations and old enemies. If you recognise the Kurds you cast Iraq adrift into the Iranian sea. Now I know that realistically Iraq is lost to Iran anyway, it is logical that the shiite population would want to forge those ties

[talaniman]

They had those ties before they discovered oil, so a reversion is only natural.

[paraclete]

Yes, in tribal societies traditional ties are of more value than fair weather friends

[tomder55]

When I examine the actors in the region and ask 'who do you trust ' ? The Kurds top the list over the Persians and the Ottomans . Iraq I believe will not be able to maintain nationhood . Had we made a long term commitment to them there would've been a chance. But since it appears that the borders forged by Sykes–Picot Agreement are being erased by the Islamic State (and I believe these changes are permanent even if the Islamic State fails in the long run) ; the question is what will the new Levant look like ...and will the west play a part in shaping it ?

The emergence of the Islamic State has proven the fallacy of the emperor's fantasies of a US withdrawal from the region (and other nations like Russia and China have proven his ideas of withdrawing from the world naïve) .Like it or not ,the Islamic State forces us to again play a role in the region .

Unfortunately the emperor has determined that his quickest out is to defer to Tehran. You see it is having dire consequences in the nuclear negotiations where he has allowed a deadline (redline ) to pass again while their centrifuges continue to spin. In exchange for them taking a role as the hegemon ,he has all but conceded the Persian
bomb.
Ankara has proven to be a feckless and unreliable ally . They did nothing while the border town of Kobani was relentlessly pressed by the Islamic State .If I didn't know better I would think they were working in alliance with the Islamic State . More likely is that they are bullies inside their own nation to ethnic minorities like the Kurds ,but do not want their military to demonstrate their worth outside their borders . That means their desire to restore the Ottoman control is all bluster .
The Saudi's in the meantime have proven their vulnerabilities . They are nothing more than a bankroll. They are fearful of the Iranian emergence .They are fearful that the Islamic State will turn it's attention their way . They are now vulnerable because despite the anti-oil and gas administration in Washington ,the US is plowing ahead making itself and the world free of dependence on Saudi light crude.

The power the west has committed to the fight against the Islamic State is probably enough to end their territorial ambition. But it is the Kurdish "boots on the ground " that will end them being a significant threat. For that they should be rewarded and not betrayed .......AGAIN !

[paraclete]

Tom I think Turkey is a dishonest broker in this and they see the opportunities afforded by a weakened Syria. They only have to wait and walk in over the ashes, so why expend their forces fighting people who are doing their work for them and what could be better than allowing the kurds to crush ISIS then they crush the Kurds and end the potential for rebellion. When have you known a muslim to be brave when he doesn't have to be? The saudi's will get their just desserts, their wahabbiism will back fire in their face. The US needs to look to the threat possed by Russia and China and ignore Iraq and let the Iraqi fight for themselves, they started this mess. Assard has gotten the message and gone on the offensive against ISIS. He must show himself to be strong now

[tomder55]

We don't have to restrict ourselves to 1 or 2 interests in the world disregarding the rest . We have multiple interests and responsibilities . We cannot lead from behind as the emperor would chose. We have seen no nation ,or group of nations ,or international organizations that can fill the void.