[tomder55]

It's Zelinsky's charge . Having suffered horrible losses charging right up the middle of the Russian defenses .Ukraine has reached it's high water mark .

It is becoming more apparent every day that the offensive will fail to achieve the goal of evicting Russian troops from the territory they occupy. Supplying cluster bombs is a 'hail mary ' attempt to create a breakthrough.

Ukraine does not have the resources and manpower to achieve their goals. After 6 weeks on the offensive they have not even penetrated the 1st line of Russian defenses.
The propaganda machine says 'progress is slow' . If that means they have made no progress then that is a correct statement . Propaganda councils patience. But at what cost to Ukrainian lives ?
A third of their capacity was destroyed in the opening salvos.

The Ukrainian Defeat Near Mala Tokmachka Was Worst Than We Thought (forbes.com)

After Suffering Heavy Losses, Ukrainians Paused to Rethink Strategy - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

The compliant press has gone into spin mode

“Ukraine’s military has so far embraced an attrition-based approach aimed largely at creating vulnerabilities in Russian lines.”

Ukraine aims to sap Russia’s defenses, as U.S. urges a decisive breakthrough - The Washington Post

What that means is that their armor failed to penetrate Russian defenses .So now they dismount and send small units into the Russian trenches in hopes of creating a breach. This is flat lands with little forest cover. The minute the Russian drones detect Ukraine troops in the open they fire on them.

Their best hope died when the Wagner mutiny failed . Putin I'm sure is purging dissent ;and he has sent those Wagner forces to Belarus to open a northern front. This time Ukraine has concentrated all it's available forces in the Donbas region.

Here is my concern. Without a Ukraine victory or a negotiated settlement Russia will move on Kiev ;or move on Odessa ;and cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea.

If the Russians look like they are winning then it is very likely that Poland will intervene ...with or without NATO approval. That will drag all of NATO into the conflict more than we are "officially " involved .

Negotiate a cease fire now .

[tomder55]

Blinken says Ukraine has recaptured half the territory Russia seized .

Ukraine has reclaimed more than half of territory seized by Russia: US (nypost.com)

I have found no other source to confirm this claim . I hear advances are measured in feet and yards ;that the offensive is bogged down .

Willing to entertain another narrative but not some claim by Blinken

[tomder55]

Quid Pro Joe is going to begin unilateral negotiations with Ukraine under the guise of the Joint Declaration of Support for Ukraine that came out of the NATO summit . Essentially the US will give security support guarantees until the time when NATO admits Ukraine .

"Security guarantees for Ukraine will be concrete and long-term commitments that will ensure Ukraine's ability to win now and deter Russian aggression in the future. These will be clearly described formats and support mechanisms."

Ukraine begin negotiations with US on security guarantees – Ukraine's President's Office chief (yahoo.com)

While the war continues in our country and we cannot join NATO, our state must seek reliable guarantees to ensure security during this transitional period.


Ukraine, US to begin talks on security guarantees next week - Presidential Office - Euromaidan Press


I assume that such an agreement needs Congressional approval . But I could be wrong .

Stuff like this makes me wonder what exactly Zelensky has over Quid .

[jlisenbe]

Make America Great Again.

Stuff like this makes me wonder what exactly Zelensky has over Quid .

Really good point being made there.

[tomder55]

Progress report . Weeks into the Ukraine offensive it is pretty much stalled .

CNN reports

“Our briefings are sobering. We’re reminded of the challenges they face,” said Rep. Mike Quigley, an Illinois Democrat who recently returned from meetings in Europe with US commanders training Ukrainian armored forces. “This is the most difficult time of the war.”

“Russians have a number of defensive lines and they [Ukrainian forces] haven’t really gone through the first line,” said a senior Western diplomat. “Even if they would keep on fighting for the next several weeks, if they haven’t been able to make more breakthroughs throughout these last seven, eight weeks, what is the likelihood that they will suddenly, with more depleted forces, make them? Because the conditions are so hard.”

Armies can win and lose battles . Armies can also break . It took 4 years of war of attrition to break the Russian and French Armies in WWI (the French were then reinforced by American troops ) . .

It will not take that much time to wear down the Ukraine Army . Russia has not even committed their reserves yet. Ukraine is suffering combat and civilian attrition reminiscent of the South's losses during the Civil War.

Their defeat will come during the campaign season. if NATO doesn't commit forces to the fight .

[jlisenbe]

Can't really add much to this, but I do enjoy reading your updates.

[tomder55]

If you listen to the compliant press you hear them cheering that Ukraine dropped a bomb on a bridge
or a ship from a drone. But if you go to international reporting you find that both sides are using drones . But Ukraine is losing them at a rate of 10,000 drones a month .

Russia and Ukraine take drone warfare to unprecedented scale (lemonde.fr)

And Russia is being resupplied with Iranian kamikaze drones regularly .
While NATO waffles and dithers over supplying Ukraine with weaponry ;the pipeline from Iran across the Caspian Sea is unhindered .


German U-Turn? No Leopard MBTs, Marder IFVs & IRIS-Ts, Berlin Delays, Denies Critical Military Aid To Ukraine (eurasiantimes.com)


US says Iran is helping Russia build drone manufacturing facility | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera

[tomder55]

Ukraine soldiers trained by NATO say they are not trained for WWI style war that is being fought.

“I don’t want to say anything against our partners, but they don’t quite understand our situation and how we are fighting,” said a senior intelligence sergeant in the newly formed 41st Mechanised Brigade who goes by the name ‘Dutchman’. “That’s why the main training and the integrated training happens here.”

NATO training leaves Ukraine troops ‘underprepared’ for Russia war | openDemocracy

NATO gives them basic training and then any additional training is done by Ukraine instructors . More likely they are being force fed into the meat grinder.

It usually takes between one and two years to form a brigade, but wartime conditions mean that 90% of the 41st Brigade were mobilised this year. Recruitment started in January and they were dropped into Kupiansk in early July. Before the invasion, basic training for Ukrainian troops was six months, but some of the men openDemocracy met had been mobilised as recently as March, highlighting Ukraine’s critical demand for troops.

The Slimes reports that Ukraine is not making the kind of advances they made last year.It "raises questions about the quality of the training" .
Ukrainian Troops Trained by the West Stumble in Battle - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

"The first casualty of the Ukrainian counteroffensive was wishful thinking,"

Ukrainian counteroffensive’s slow going offers reality check but could yet pay off | Ukraine | The Guardian

This is true despite the advanced weapons that Ukraine requested and were delivered by NATO at a snail's pace.

The Russians have air superiority . That is ususally a requirement for offensive operations.

They have also apparently found a weakness in the Ukraine line. They are making gains in the Northeast sections of Ukraine in an attempt to break through . Ukraine is so far holding but at a heavy price.

Russia amasses 100,000 troops as it seeks breakthrough in Kharkiv region, Kyiv warns – POLITICO

At a minimum it means that Ukraine has to keep sufficient forces on hand to repel the Russian advance.

I am reminded of the St Petersburg line in the Civil War. April 2 1865, Grant with superior force levels stretched Lee's lines to the point of breaking. Then Grant moved around Lee's right flank. Lee faced a choice to hold his line and face being cut off or retreat. He chose to retreat. One week later he surrendered his Army.