[tomder55]

Higher prices is inflation notr recession . Perhaps we have nationally been in a recessionary trend since the 4th qtr of last year and maybe in one this qtr.

But hey ;if you can define a word anyway you want to then you can apply it anyway you want to also .

[excon]

As far as gold and silver why would anyone advise that someone should purchase it if it is already at record highs ?

Hello again, tom:

You could be right. And, when gold and silver reaches an inflation adjusted "record" high, I'll be saying it too.

However, when you adjust for inflation, the high of around $800 in 1980 would equate to an inflation adjusted price of just around $450 today. So, it's got a long ways to go to equal the highs you speak of - somewhere around $1,600 would equate.

excon

[tomder55]

Excon you could be right. But we have seen the price drop now for 2 consecutive weeks . Could be an adjustment or it could be a trend. Besides the inflation protection theory there is really no increased demand for gold .

Supposedly the Indian consumer of gold has been reluctant to buy it at it's current pricing . I don't know if that is true or not. I take my cue from the radio ads I hear.When someone comes on the air and tries to tell me how to leverage real estate I take that as a signal that the market is close to it's high for that period . When someone comes on air and tells me that now is a great time to buy gold for investment reasons... from them... then I take it as an indicator that someone is anxious to off load inventory.

[magprob]

"A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity, and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades."

I guess we will see in late April when the stats catch up with today.

[speechlesstx]

The economy is the number one issue among most voters. The question of length of the recession is debatable since some economic analysts think the culprit is the fallen housing market alone. Personally I side with the view that the mismanagement started at the top for a variety of reasons, including the ongoing war in Iraq.

Bobby, where is the proof we are in a recession - two consecutive quarters of economic decline? Not to say it won't happen but it hasn't, and I believe Ben Stein is right, "if we have a serious recession, a great deal will lie at the media's feet." That's what this post is about and I resent the media trying to drive my economic well-being into the ground.

[excon]

Excon you could be right. But we have seen the price drop now for 2 consecutive weeks . Could be an adjustment or it could be a trend. Besides the inflation protection theory there is really no increased demand for gold .

Hello again, tom:

Of course, you too could be right. This is either a buying opportunity, or a trend down. If I knew, I'd be rich.

However, from my perspective, we're just entering our bad times - not escaping from them. I take my cue from past performance. High interest rates work to curb the money supply. It's what ended the run on gold in 1980.

On the other hand, low interest rates spur growth to the money supply. In the past few weeks, indeed, for the past several years, the money supply has grown exponentialy. And the fed lowered the rates even further...

Interestingly, the fed stopped reporting M3 money supply in March, 2006. Of course, M3 tells you what they don't want you to know. M3 includes all of M2 (which includes M1) plus large-denomination ($100,000 or more) time deposits, balances in institutional money funds, repurchase liabilities issued by depository institutions, and Eurodollars held by U.S. residents at foreign branches of U.S. banks and at all banks in the United Kingdom and Canada.

In other words, M3 tracks what the big boys are doing with the money. This includes US dollars held in banks in Canada and the UK (called Eurodollars) not to be confused with the Euro which is the standard currency of Europe.

So the question immediately arises why would the FED stop tracking this? I know why. The inflation is just beginning. According to M3, due to the hyperinflationery recent moves by the Federal Reserve, our money supply will double this year alone.

I say again, buy gold.

excon

[tomder55]

The NBER definition would fit in well with the theory that recession began around Oct, Nov. of last year. Warren Buffet certainly thinks that is the case . It is easy to be a recession forecaster however because so long as you keep harping on the theme eventually you get it right. Corrections happen. Steve is making a similar point that Maria Bartiromo made last week ; that the talk of it erodes confidence enough that it becomes a self -fulfilling prophesy .

[excon]

Hello again, tom:

When we were the big boys on the block, what we said, mattered...

But, we're no longer the big boy. China is calling the shots. That's really the hardest pill to swallow, and the politicians haven't swallowed it yet.

The markets are bigger than any one nation. We're hooked into the world economy, and the world doesn't care what anybody on CNBC says.

excon

[BABRAM]

Bobby, where is the proof we are in a recession - two consecutive quarters of economic decline? Not to say it won't happen but it hasn't, and I believe Ben Stein is right, "if we have a serious recession, a great deal will lie at the media's feet." That's what this post is about and I resent the media trying to drive my economic well-being into the ground.

Ben Stein is what I call an educated entertainer. He's able to play the straight actor and set up comedian guy all at once. Even according to Wikipedia (which is about ninety percent accurate), as Tom posted, by that definition we are in a recession. Personally I think our recession started about seven and half years ago when Bush first took office... just kidding. But seriously, around a month back and the Bush admin agrees with me, as it became obvious with their stimulus package plan. What we don't know is if it is a mild, deep, temporary or a lengthy recession. It's possible the economy could waver back in and out of border line recession for years. To many variables to know for sure, because the U.S. has so much on it's plate.

[tomder55]

Well that would be a gloom and doom scenario. I think the economy will begin to come out of it in the 4th qtr.

[George_1950]

I might believe there is a recession when gasoline is selling for less than $2.00/gal.

[BABRAM]

I don't doubt that for some people it will take a spike in national bicycle sales and Washington DC to look like the streets of Beijing.

[magprob]

[lindalaveck]

K-3, as excon would say buy gold. I'm trying to have sympathy for all these people losing their homes, OK, well not so much - it reminds me of the media's poster family for the health insurance woes a while back that owned two properties and three cars. Come on people, if you don't know what you're buying, what the terms are or if you can afford it why should I not only weep for you now but bail you out of your jam?

OK, quote RR who did some good things but ran up a deficit beyond any seen in US history. That is the legacy he left his grandchildren.

[George_1950]

ok, quote RR who did some good things but ran up a deficit beyond any seen in US history. That is the legacy he left his grandchildren.

Sorry; the RR legacy is tax cuts that freed the US economy, with minor recessions until 2008. As well as we can determine, the current economic mess is the result of govmint meddling within the economy. After which President Bush says, '"I readily concede I chucked aside my free-market principles when I was told ... the situation we were facing could be worse than the Great Depression," Bush said.'

[speechlesstx]

ok, quote RR who did some good things but ran up a deficit beyond any seen in US history. That is the legacy he left his grandchildren.

I really don't see how that has anything to do with the excerpt you quoted.

Nevertheless, even though the president is repsonsible for what happens under his watch, how about for once someone putting some of the blame for all those spending increases where it belongs - with the Democratic controlled house that presenetd all those spending bills. Regardless, I believe Reagan's tax cuts led to more federal tax revenue being collected in every year of his administration than in any previous year in the history of this country.

[tomder55]

There would've been a stalemate with Tip O'Neill's Congress had Reagan taken a hardline on some of the spending . But O'Neill let Reagan's tax reforms go through in exchange .