[tomder55]

"On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders," Trump wrote. "This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!"
"I have had many talks with China about the massive amounts of drugs, in particular Fentanyl, being sent into the United States — But to no avail," "Until such time as they stop, we will be charging China an additional 10% Tariff, above any additional Tariffs, on all of their many products coming into the United States of America."

Truth Details | Truth Social

Truth Details | Truth Social


I think tariffs generally are ineffective and costs the US consumer .

My question is ;will the left now come to a realization that like tariffs ,taxes on businesses are also passed on to consumers ?

His tariffs did not work in his first term .I expect the same results in Trump 2.0

[Wondergirl]

Yes, tariffs on foreign countries that we buy goods from will raise prices on those goods and screw US consumers!

[tomder55]

Yes because the costs get transferred . I don't understand why the left doesn't get that when it comes to corporate taxes.

[jlisenbe]

Trump used tariffs in his first four years and inflation never exceeded 2.5% while wages grew much faster. Biden did not use tariffs and inflation hit 9% with wages trailing behind.

Hmmm.

[tomder55]

All government interventions in the free market affects prices be it tariffs or mandates and regulations.
But I believe much of his talk of imposing tariffs is part of the art of the deal. Justin Trudeau got on the horn with Trump within hours to discuss his concerns . Mexico Pres Claudia Sheinbaum has assured Trump that new illegal caravans will not reach the border .
She also threatened sanctions in return.

What would the impact be ? The US exported $324 billion to Mexico in 2022 and $356 billion to Canada. Now we import more from both countries because our consumers are more prosperous .

Trump negotiated USMCA his first term. His concerns with both countries could be addressed in that framework

China is a different story . They are enemies as far as I'm concerned and there are many more national security issues at stake including the wholesale theft of intellectual property ;and materials critical for military ;medicine ;and high tech production.

[tomder55]

Treasury Sec designate Scott Bessett has the answer . (what a brilliant mind </sarc>)

“tariffs can’t be inflationary because if the price of one thing goes up, unless you give people more money, then they have less money to spend on the other thing, so there is no inflation.”

Let's see now. If the price of exported gas from Canada or let's say auto parts from Mexico goes up 25% but you don't give people more money then it is not inflationary . Got it . Even better ;because people don't have the extra money to pay for the gas or other products brought in under the tariffs ,people purchase less !!!! It is actually deflationary !!! or stagflationary or something like that . Sorry I don't have the mind of an economist

Clueless Joe drove up prices by flooding the market with cheap monopoly bucks Trump will drive up prices by taxing imports .

[jlisenbe]

Didn't he do that in his first term?

[tomder55]

I was a critic of his tariffs then and am now . I posted this when he announced steel and aluminum tariffs in 2018 .

herr Donald Herbert Hoover Smoot Hawley Trump

There are 2 ways that the costs of tariffs are absorbed . The importer can absorb the costs and thus have less profit . The consumer absorbs the cost . And this is not a one way street . Any retaliatory tariff cost are paid for by the exporting company. We'll probably just subsidize the difference.

I can post a number of studies that back up the claim that the tariffs he imposed hurt consumers and only had limited benefits on some of the industries they were designed to protect. I would have to trust the economic language in the studies because to me they are more confusing than reading medical studies.

[jlisenbe]

Did the prices of steel and aluminum go up by any level that proved to be ruinous?

Despite the seeming draconian nature of his first term tariffs, revenues from tariffs only increased by about 40 billion dollars, a relatively small amount compared to the multiplied hundreds of billions of dollars of goods we import every year.

[tomder55]

Steel went up 41%
The American steel industry came out ahead . With less competition they were able to raise their prices .

How Steel Tariffs Affect Your Metal Building Price | General Steel

The losers ? The industries that use steel like auto and construction .

Corporate America is caught in the crossfire of trade war

[jlisenbe]

Truthfully, it nearly doubled in two years, and yet overall inflation never topped 2.5%, so it certainly did not have a profoundly negative effect on the economy as a whole which did very well.

Steel - Price - Chart - Historical Data - News

We have a choice to make here. Do we allow foreign nations to sell heavily subsidized products such as steel to the detriment of our own industries and workers, or do we use tariffs to make the point that we will not allow that?

[tomder55]

We have a choice to make here. Do we allow foreign nations to sell heavily subsidized products such as steel to the detriment of our own industries and workers, or do we use tariffs to make the point that we will not allow that?

Why not as long as they meet our quality standards ? If they are subsidizing products then they are hurting their markets just like subsidizing hurts ours . Unless we have a domestic market that can produce at the rate we need as inexpensively as we can get the product overseas at our quality standards ,then all we do is punish the US consumer by insisting they buy US .

National security products besides ;why not get cheaper items from friendly trade partners ? It is a win win.

The trick in the negotiations is to get trade partners to reciprocally purchase more American goods they need. It should be easy just in agricultural products we make. It should also be easy in high tech . But even if there is a trade imbalance it is not a terrible thing. The reason we have trade imbalances is because US consumers demand more products . Knowing that ;trade deficits are not the end of the world . Trump treats them as a score card and that is misguided . The US ,as long as we are prosperous, will always run trade deficits . The score must reflect how it benefits or harms Americans overall ; not just workers .

[jlisenbe]

Why not as long as they meet our quality standards ? If they are subsidizing products then they are hurting their markets just like subsidizing hurts ours .

Why not? Because it injures our own domestic manufacturers which we are supposed to be promoting. It also lures us into the trap of becoming dependent on foreign sources. If subsidized steel puts our own steel producers out of business, will you be happy when foreign steel prices go up and we have no alternative but to buy from them???

It is not a win/win for the unemployed workers from the businesses destroyed by unfair foreign competition, nor is it a win/win for the owners and investors associated with those businesses.

[tomder55]

Back to 19th century protectionist mercantilism model (oops I mean economic nationalism ) ;the Reagan /Thatcher free market system dead. In this new world we will hardly be different than the XI Jingping Chinese model of the state asserting control over the markets ....or for that matter Bidenomics. State control of the markets by a combination of domestic subsidies while restricting imports through taxes (tariffs )

It may be inevitable with trade blocks forming around the globe that is morphing into decoupling of a common global reserve currency.

It's a zero sum game .The only way to increase our wealth is to damage the other nation's . That is why empires formed in the past . Economic warfare lead to real warfare .

Let's see now . Tariffs like subsidies benefit the inefficient industries like steel They send lobbyists to DC to beg for more largess. Roughly 83,000 people are employed in steel production in the US . But the higher costs of steel imports from tariffs and the domestic price increases that will come from restricted competition will impact the jobs of some 13 million Americans who produce products from steel)(like machine manufacturers ;the auto industry; and construction )
The number of steel jobs are declining that is true. Some of it may come from foreign competition . Much of it comes from the inevitable loss of jobs through innovation. As an example ,the US is a leading agricultural producers and exporter . But farm jobs steadily declined over the years as innovation replaced human sweat . Farm workers went to work in other sectors where innovation created new markets To replace jobs lost markets need to be expanded. How that happens when trade barriers are erected through tariff and retaliatory tariff is beyond me.

I know I am in the minority in this thinking . Trump is fused at the hip with the progressives in the Dem party like Bernie Sanders. Exports are good ;imports are bad is bipartisan thinking .
Trade Policies of Both Parties Ignore What Most Americans Say They Want | Cato at Liberty Blog

[tomder55]

I am not opposed to diversifying the supply base and doing things like nearshoring to eliminate dependency on enemies like China . I oppose punitive tariffs on trading partners like Mexico and Canada ;both of whom Trump negotiated a free trade agreement with in his first term.

[jlisenbe]

So the choice is between allowing a flood of cheap imports to help consumers and some manufacturers at the expense of losing valuable production capacities, or of trying to protect your domestic industries from foreign competition being given an edge by their own governments.

[tomder55]

Yes cheap imports benefit consumers ;manufacturers ;retailers that sell the products . . Some domestic production is lost . If we become dependent on the products of a hostile nation it is an issue that needs addressing . Otherwise if our trades are with friends then we benefit from the imports and hopefully they benefit from what we sell.

being given an edge by their own governments

would that be like a subsidize courtesy of the taxpayer ? which of course is what a tariff is;a subsidy to a favored company or industry or as I like to call them 'rent seekers (like the steel industry that keeps a small army of lobbyists knocking on DC doors looking for the protection the government can provide ) Maybe the reason they are so soft and uncompetitive is because they have depended on special government treatment and fell behind the innovation curve. ( example the "minimill" was new technology in the 1980s . But US Steel did not incorporate it until 20 years later )

“No inventions; no innovations," a History of US Steel


I fail to see how selling at a loss benefits a company or a nation. And I fail to see how punishing our consumers for purchasing a foreign product helps . American consumers make choices all the time . I have yet to see where most of them will go for a more expensive shirt because it is made in the USA.

[tomder55]

S& P Global did an impact analysis of possible outcomes to the auto industry if Trump goes through with his tariff threat.

They estimate that US and Euro automakers would take a 17% hit on their profits .

This burden would have to be passed through to customers, reduced by countermeasures, or absorbed by lower profits.

Auto Industry Buckles Up For Trump's Proposed Tariffs On Car Imports | S&P Global Ratings


"We expect mitigating actions will make potentially higher tariffs manageable, but the combined effects of tariffs, tighter CO2 regulation in Europe from 2025, and earnings pressure from stronger competition in China and Europe could increase the risk of downgrades"


"Mitigating actions" meaning more taxpayer subsidies to the industry.


For now ;until he follows through ,I am inclined to believe these threats are part of the 'art of the deal' to strengthen his negotiation position.

[tomder55]

Yesterday Trump said tariffs on Canada and Mexico will start next week

Trump says tariffs on Canada and Mexico 'will go forward'

He also demanded that the company building the Keystone XL pipeline finish the job.

In a social media post on Monday, Trump urged the company that was building the pipeline to "come back to America," saying his administration would offer easy approvals and an almost immediate start.
"The Trump Administration is very different (from the Biden administration) - Easy approvals, almost immediate start! If not them, perhaps another Pipeline Company. We want the Keystone XL Pipeline built," Trump said in the post.
Trump's post did not name a company and only referred to the one that was building the pipeline earlier.

The company that was doing the job is a CANADIAN company.

TC Energy Corporation Company Profile - Overview - GlobalData

About

And what is the purpose of the pipeline ?
To pump CANADIAN imported oil to refineries and ports for CANADIAN companies to refine and export CANADIAN oil out of the US .

Keystone XL — Maps

BTW South Bow has already walked away from the project after being jerked around since the emperor's reign.

An alternative pipeline was completed to Canada's Pacific coast so it can be refined and sold to China .

TCI Energy Brief: Early TMX Pipeline Expansion Data Reveals China’s Emerging Role as a Significant Buyer of Canadian Crude, Offering Some Diversification From the U.S. Market | The China Institute


GREAT JOB !!!!!!!

[tomder55]

Mexico is trying to play nice in the sandbox . They say "oh you want a crack down on the cartels ???? You got it "
Extradition of 29 cartel leaders shows Mexico 'can do more' | Border Report