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The mother of all mandates
Clueless Joe's Environmental Protection Agency sprung a doozy on us on Good Friday.
The Biden administration on Friday announced a regulation designed to turbocharge sales of electric or other zero-emission heavy vehicles, from school buses to cement mixers, as part of its multifront attack on global warming.
The Environmental Protection Agency projects the new rule could mean that 25 percent of new long-haul trucks, the heaviest on the road, and 40 percent of medium-size trucks, like box trucks and landscaping vehicles, could be nonpolluting by 2032. Today, fewer than 2 percent of new heavy trucks sold in the United States fit that bill. The regulation would apply to more than 100 types of vehicles including tractor-trailers, ambulances, R.V.s, garbage trucks and moving vans. The rule does not mandate the sales of electric trucks or any other type of zero or low-emission truck. Rather, it increasingly limits the amount of pollution allowed from trucks across a manufacturer's product line over time, starting in model year 2027. EVs make up less than 1% of U.S. heavy truck sales, and nearly all are in California, which heavily subsidizes and mandates their purchase. EPA’s rule will require electric trucks to account for 60% of new local delivery trucks and 25% of long haul tractor sales by 2032. No problem right ? Currently there are no long haul tractor trailer EVs on the market . The batteries can't do the job. Even light duty electric trucks only go about 150 miles between charges .The batteries themselves are heavy which means that they can carry less load or do more to the road surfaces . To make the same deliveries will require more trucks and more drivers ,Currently there is a shortage of drivers . Power generation will need to be greatly expanded ;and renewable sources will not fit the bill. So any reduction in the use of fossil fuels by having EV fleets will just be transferred to the use of fossil fuel for electric generation. A rough estimate is that 1.4 million additional chargers would be required by 2032 . That is 15,000 a month starting now. The infrastructure is not sufficient to make that happen ;even in the most populus regions of the nation. The sad part of all this is that the US is achieving it's carbon reduction goals already It has nothing to the with a conversion to electric. It has everything to do with the natural gas revolution. Increases in gas electricity generation is the largest driver, accounting for 33% of the total emissions reduction in 2016. Analysis: Why US carbon emissions have fallen 14% since 2005 - Carbon Brief |
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They should take a hint . Tesla is going to release it's Q1 numbers today . Expect it to be down even from the drubbing it got in 2023.
Tesla Stock Outlook: Wall Street Downgrades Firm As Growth Disappoints (businessinsider.com) Elon Musk is polarizing ;so certain groups relish in any bad news that comes his way. But they are not looking at why Tesla is tanking. One of the reasons is because China's technology theft has allowed them to make EVs cheaper than Tesla . Musk mocked the Chinese auto ;the Warren Buffet backed BYD . But it is grabbing market share Warren Buffett-backed EV maker BYD surprises with stellar first quarter sales as Tesla continues to slide (yahoo.com) But what is becoming a disaster is the Tesla cybertruck . Mind you . This is only a pick up truck It is not even close to the heavy hauling capacity needed . And it costs over $80,000 at it's lowest end options. People are not looking for expensive cars to buy ;but Musk is gambling that this will be Tesla's savior. EV Shoppers Don't Want Detroit's Pickup Trucks. They Want This. (businessinsider.com) Musk is giving away free trials of Tesla's $199/month Full self driving software . That won't get it done either . All Teslas in the US get a one month trial of FSD starting this week | Electrek Consumers are not ready to embrace expensive and short ranged cars that take more than 40 minutes to recharge . And the technology is not there to convert our transportation system over to long hauling consumer goods to electric. All the mandates in the world won't change that reality . |
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Tesla globally delivered 386,810 cars in Q 1 , well below estimates of 449,080
Tesla Vehicle Production & Deliveries and Date for Financial Results & Webcast for First Quarter 2024 Their stock dropped almost 5% Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance
The Street Pro’s Bruce Kamich said that Tesla “used to be considered a buy-and-hold stock but now the tables are turned. and it looks like a ‘sell on any bounce’ stock.”
“Avoid the long side of TSLA as further declines are anticipated,” he said. |
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Turns out EV shoppers don't want trucks .
Whodathunkit? Answer anyone with a brain that doesn't make marketing decisions for Detroit. They want cars in their budget. Since the 1980s I have capped what I purchased to $30,000 or less. My cars have not been fancy ;but they fill my needs and have been reliable . I consider myself "typical" . According to Business Insider , EV shoppers want affordable and reliable . That is not what Detroit is trying to sell us with their taxpayer incentives .
Detroit automakers decided to throw their hat in the ring with what they do best: pickup trucks.
The first entrants to the electric-pickup market enjoyed some early success, particularly in the Ford F-150 Lightning. But sudden changes to the electric-car-shopper demographic mean that for the second time in the past 20 years, Detroit finds itself selling big, expensive cars nobody really wants.
A recent study from the car-shopping website Edmunds found that interest in electric pickup trucks accounted for only 10% of EV demand, while demand for electric cars (including wagons) accounted for 43% and demand for SUVs and crossovers came in second at 42%.
This preference for smaller EVs aligns with the price point most EV customers are shopping at right now, according to the Edmunds data. The most desired price range for an EV is $30,000 to $40,000, with one-quarter of customers surveyed by Edmunds looking in that ballpark...... Only four EVs sell in that range, Edmunds found, and none of them are sold by Detroit automakers. The four models under $40,000 are the Mini Hardtop 2 Door, Nissan Leaf, Fiat 500e, and Hyundai Kona Electric. The last 4 vehicles I purchased were Subaru and Toyota. Each have lasted over a decade and when it was time to trade them in ,they drove as well as the day they were bought. I probably need to buy one more car before the day they take my license away. It won't be an EV . |
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Meanwhile California Air Resource Board .(CARB get it ? ) amended it's
'Advance Clean Truck Regulations ' to require that vehicles that are 8,500 lbs must be EMISSION FREE . Aint no such thing unless it is electric and as you know ;all that really does is transfer the emissions from the vehicle to processing electricity and mining the rare earth minerals needed to make batteries. Fleet owners and workers are fighting back CARB clean fleets rule faces legal challenges from work truck and equipment groups | FleetOwner Washington, Oregon, New York, Massachusetts, and New Jersey,have all adopted California's loony emission standards . So this will impact them too. Guess what ! None of these states will be allowed to register RVs. RVs use diesel for power . Lawmakers in those states are begging for delays of implementing the standards . Senate Republicans Request Delay to Implementation of Advanced Clean Truck (ACT) Regulations | NYSenate.gov Automakers for years have warned that the standards are unrealistic . But you know ;getting bribed with subsidizes makes it easier to digest. Despite the impending doom RV sales continue to be popular . The Sales Boom in Diesel Motorhomes Defies the Economic Forecasts - Ozarks RV Lakeside Resort But why should consumers be allowed to make a choice ? |
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