[tomder55]

The alternative will be the Finlandization of Philippines ,and all the other nations in the South China and East China Sea , by the Chinese . Here is my prediction . Unless the Chinese back down ,there will be shooting .The state run media editorialized that unless they get their way there will be war . They will flex their muscles ;probably against the Philippines who have made a case against them based on LOST . They have already impeded and interferred with the legitimate commercial persuits of the Phillipines in the "disputed " areas . The US has a long time Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines that we will honor when push comes to shove . We also agreed in 2014 to 'Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement'.Defense Secretary Ash Carter and his counterpart Secretary of National Defense Voltaire Gazmin met this week to reaffirm our commitment . A peaceful resolution is preferable .... but not at the dictates of the Chinese. The US and our allies should continue to over-fly their artifical islands and should cruise through the disputed seas making it clear that we will not be prohibited from travel through international waters ,or from flying through international air space . It is the Chinese who have over-reached and it's up to them to back down. (maybe through diplomacy there is a way for them to save face as they back down . But back down they must ) .They thought that the Philippines would be an easy target ;but the Philippines have not backed down .(btw ,this started in the 1990s so it's lame to blame it on the 'pivot to Asia' .Our pivot was long over-due ). Let them try to shoot down American planes . These islands are indefensible ,and they will expose their own coast regions to attack (the areas of the nation that has shown the largest growth in the last couple decades ). For China to persue that course would be them throwing away 40 years of progress. Let them add that up on their abacus.

Sorry ;too much is at stake to allow them to summarily claim the seas where $5 trillion in trade transverses annually . (I'll put aside the obvious environmental crime they are committing by dredging in the coral reefs in the Spratleys ). You think it will end there ? What happens when the reach further south into Indonesia ,Micronesia ,Malayasia ,and even in the waters by Australia. Where is your red line ?

[paraclete]

Tom I don't need a red line because others will draw it far further north than I might. I see it twelve miles off the coast of China but that would take a lot of muscle to enforce. I think you have the resolve to do it but in doing it you are going to destroy at least two economies. The Spratleys are a bridge too far for the Chinese but I expect that they judge that if there is conflict better it be a long way from home. As I have said before they are building a wall, it's their mentality to keep the barbarians at arms length.

They will test your resolve, but you are not dealing with Cuba now. I don't think they understand naval warfare and the potential devastation you are capable of. Also your hesitance to bring a decisive battle in Iraq against what is a minor force has given them opportunity. If you join battle with China there is the risk of opportunism on the Korean peninsula. NK will judge you cannot fight in many places at once so it could go nuclear quickly. The game here has many facits and many potential battle fields.

A misjudgement here could see open conflict in Ukraine as well as the South China Sea and Korea. It isn't that your pivot is overdue it is that you have sat on your hands too long

[tomder55]

It isn't that your pivot is overdue it is that you have sat on your hands too long

yup . I am going on the calculation and hope that they have too much to lose to persue this . They are counting on what you have correctly identified as a tepid US response to what has been ongoing for years. That has historically been a mistaken assumption.
That doesn't change the fact that they cannot be allowed to persue the course they are taking without consequences. You talk of us goading the Pacific nations into war in the 1940s . That is not true . Yes we put sanctions on an aggressive Imperial Japan that had already fought a war against Russia ;invaded China and Korea ,and was swiftly moving their empire southward in an attempt to dominate the same territory that China is making a play on today . We were in good faith negotiations with them when they attacked . They had the choice to abandon unacceptable aggression and face continued economic isolation ;back down ,or wage war against nations they had no chance of defeating . They chose the later . China should not make the same mistake thinking the US will shrink from the challenge.


The nukes won't come from us ,and I kinda doubt un-Kim takes his marching orders from Beijing .

[paraclete]

Tom what you have here is a number of nations in various places who could take an opportunist view of your engagement elsewhere, after all what the Chinese are doing now is exactly that. They are well used to rhetoric and don't take much notice of it. You can tell them you are coming all you like and they will call your bluff. What do they have to lose, face admittantly, and that is the dangerous part of the calculation. You could easily find yourself in a negotiation that goes on for years like the tactic they used at the end of the korean war. Logistics are a big part of this and boots on the ground won't mean anything. What I see is this is a play for them to get a certain result and the Spratlys are expendiable. You need to remember a cold war with China will harm your economy too, you have allowed them to become a supplier of choice and grow their industries with your technology.

Meanwhile in the ME the carnage goes on but Daesh is taking a toll of the Iraqi and the Syrian alike demanding your involvement

[paraclete]

You are so careless it is dangerous to be around you, numerous life fire incidents have demonstrated this, but here is the latest carelessness

US orders anthrax review after more live shipments discovered - BBC News

Why don't you just admit you couldn't give a continential about anyone else? Go have your war, but please leave us out

[tomder55]

[paraclete]

Entirely wrong Tom I don'T say appease the Chinese, go at it if you want too, but please this time, don't waste the resourses of your allies. We bled with you in Iraq, we bled with you in Afghanistan, and I have to ask for what? Please show me there was enduring change in these places. You got your trophy, OBL and you have withdrawn. What trophy do you want in the South China sea, Are you going to fight a battle for the Philippines. Neville Chamberlain is alive and well and living in Washington and I'm waiting for Obama to announce peace in our time. As far as the south china sea is concerned, we have other routes to asia, so the Phillipines can go and fight for these reefs they couldn't care less about

You know Tom both our nations were established by people who couldn't care less about what the locals thought about ownership, don't you think it a trifle self righteous to be asking the chinese what they are doing in this terra nullius

[tomder55]

They have escalated this week . Last week they sent demands to our planes to not fly in international air space over their maritime invasion .Previously they have occupied islands that are not in their territorial waters . This week they place artillery on these artificial islands . Now that won't intimidate us .... but it is meant to send a message to their weaker neighbors that Chinese autonomy over the South China Sea is fait accompli . China will very soon force a military confrontation with either Philippines or possibly Vietnam to make their point that resistance is futile .The have instigated provocations with both countries in recent years (Vietnam they towed an oil rig into Vietnamese waters and dared them to attack it. But the Philippines is the weaker and thus more attractive victim). We should immediately begin selling defensive weapons to Vietnam. WE should make it clear that we will enforce our historical treaty commitments with Philippines .At this point ;given the fecklessness of the emperor ,the Chinese may calculate it is worth the risk to test America's resolve. Would the US defend a weak ally ? But if they are doing that then they are also risking a US response that they would not win. It would be best for all if the Chinese found a gracious and face saving way to back down. They have bitten off more than they can chew.

I ask again where is your red line ? Chinese claims in the Coral Sea ? New Guinea ?Timor Sea (why not ? they can claim like the Ruskies are doing in Ukraine that they are protecting ethnic Hakka Chinese )? Tell me what other routes do you have that easily replace travelling through the territory they are illegally claiming as their own .You would have to detour many nautical miles for that .

[talaniman]

China may well be acting to intimidate others over this trade agreement (TPP) everyone is debating about.

[paraclete]

Yes another yankee power grab, personally I'm against it. I can't see what my nation gets out of it

[tomder55]

I support the emperor's efforts on this trade deal . I think it's hillarious that he has to beat down his own rank and file in Congress to get it passed ,and that he needs Republican support. I'd make him pay a heavy price for that support .But in the end..... the TPP is a good deal for the country and for your country .

[talaniman]

I think I wait and see the text before I jump into this political football. The closer we get to actually seeing it the more everybody hollers.

Meantime the war on Islam continues, this time in Arizona.

Tense standoff outside US mosque over cartoon protest

Small group of haters exercising their rights... hood free! We have come a long way since the good ole 60's(?). The cops are in the middle keeping peace and not joining the haters with the and batons.

[tomder55]

when they are burning alive and beheading people get back to me . Had there not been a vigilant security force at the Texas cartoon contest there would've been a massacre. And you would've blamed the victims .

[talaniman]

No I wouldn't, I blame the PERPS who had bad intentions, and applaud the foresight of the local leaders in Garland Tx. that took proper precautions. Looks like Arizona took a page from that playbook too!

I also applaud the American Muslims in both locations for their peaceful response to the haters also.

[tomder55]

they voiced one view . others voiced a different view. Free speech ;aint it great ? Oh yeah that's right . You would restrict "hate speech" . Who defines 'hate speech ' btw ? Does hate speech include the vile preached in the Mosque of the Wahhabis ? Or is it only a matter if it will inflame the haters to violence ?Seems to me that the haters win when speech against them is restricted .

[Wondergirl]

And who ARE the haters? And why?

[tomder55]

good question . Salman Rushdie wrote 'Satanic Verses' 1989 and the free world came to his defense. A couple beheadings and shootings later and we see the true resolve of the' free world '.

[talaniman]

they voiced one view . others voiced a different view. Free speech ;aint it great ? Oh yeah that's right . You would restrict "hate speech" . Who defines 'hate speech ' btw ? Does hate speech include the vile preached in the Mosque of the Wahhabis ? Or is it only a matter if it will inflame the haters to violence ?Seems to me that the haters win when speech against them is restricted .

I for one don't believe in restricting hate speech, nor does it entitle others to commit violence because of it. Let me be clear when I call someone a hater it's their words and actions that I refer to, NOT what they call their god or book they worship from.

I fail to see how a group of haters choose to protest the peaceful activity of American muslims, just as the haters did protesting the peaceful activities of the 60's. But lumping all of a group into the same barrel as a few miscreants (haters also) is the favorite tool of unreasonable haters throughout history, and the world it seems.

Who are the haters? Its pretty self evident by words, and actions.

Salman Rushdie wrote 'Satanic Verses' 1989 and the free world came to his defense. A couple beheadings and shootings later and we see the true resolve of the' free world '.

The entire Islamic world didn't come after him either though, just the inflamed loony haters. Just as the entire Islamic world isn't following ISIS either. Just pockets of looney haters.

[paraclete]

I support the emperor's efforts on this trade deal . I think it's hillarious that he has to beat down his own rank and file in Congress to get it passed ,and that he needs Republican support. I'd make him pay a heavy price for that support .But in the end..... the TPP is a good deal for the country and for your country .

Tom I do wish that just for once you would get your head out of the clouds if that is where you keep it.

there are strong disagreements between the US and negotiating parties regarding intellectual property, agricultural subsidies, and financial services

^{This is very familiar these are the same disagreements we had with the US when we negotiated our FTP which was not a good deal for us andhasn't done anything for our country. Why we would want the revisit this I can't say except that the sicophants anf yankeephiles are always busy but I'm against paying more for drugs so some US pharma can get rich at my expense and make no mistake the price of drugs is also a sticking point in these negotiations. This is once again the US trying to override the soveriegnty of other nations through trade agreements}

[paraclete]

The entire Islamic world didn't come after him either though, just the inflamed loony haters. Just as the entire Islamic world isn't following ISIS either. Just pockets of looney haters.

Tal I think you fail to understand Islam, Rushdie had a fatwah issued against him. That fatwah required all muslims to kill him on sight. Now the fact that many didn't know what he looked like, where he was, or how he might be found, didn't excuse any of them from not trying. So in fact the entire muslim world did come after him but as usual they proved to be ineffective. Have you not observed how muslims behave in places like Pakistan when issues arise, whole nations are inflamed. We can agree some muslims are peaceful, and some muslims are apostate, but the existence of Al Qaeda, the Taliban and Daesh, as well as others, prove that there are a significant number of muslims who hold and follow extremists views. The whole nation of Saudi Arabia follows an extreme form of Islam and promotes it throughout the world, nor is Iran backward in pushing its objectives forward. What is it you think is going on in Syria?

You may not have active islamists in your nation but I can assure you they are active in other places as demonstrated by killings and other incidents in various places