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excon · Oct 28, 2012, 07:34 AM

Hello:

Ordinary folks understand that if you don't take advantage of an opportunity when it presents itself, you probably won't get a second chance. That is the essence of entrepreneurship.

IF the business community is holding back, as the right wing would have us believe, then we are for sure headed for the junkheap, because it's the exact OPPOSITE of what good businessmen SHOULD be doing. Ordinary, every day citizens understand that...

Frankly, I'm investing every penny I have. I've NEVER been CERTAIN about ANY investment. If I waited till I was, I'd NEVER invest. If I kept my money on the sidelines, because I didn't know how much tax I'll owe on my PROFITS, I'll NEVER make PROFITS. If I didn't invest because I didn't know how much regulation my new business would be under, I wouldn't HAVE a business to BE regulated...

To ME, these are just simple TRUTHS. The right wing, people who SHOULD know about business, are telling me something else. Should I believe them, or my lying eyes?

excon

cdad · Oct 28, 2012, 10:10 AM

What you are saying is almost true. The biggest part of the equation is the unknown. So lets try putting it this way. If someone were to announce a new tax on your business but they don't announce the rate. How likely are you to invest in new hires if you have to lay them off as soon as the new taxes hit?

Right now it's a wait and see game. Those that are currently afloat are waiting to see what happens in the near future and are only taking baby steps as of right now. It is actually smart business practice.

tomder55 · Oct 28, 2012, 10:37 AM

You and Paul Krugman against Fortune 500 Execs ,small business owners across the nation according to small business surveys ;and economists other than Krugman across the country.

http://www.bizjournals.com/southflor...certainty.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...514a_blog.html

The election is just weeks away and essentially a horse-race, and its outcomes would have vastly divergent policy implications,” said NFIB chief economist William Dunkelberg. “Everyone is waiting to see what happens, especially small-business owners who have a lot at stake in the outcome—which could mean higher marginal tax rates and more deficits, OR lower marginal tax rates and less government. Small-business owners are reporting that the political climate is a reason not to expand—second only to the economy, which is only keeping up with population growth. And so, in the meantime, owners are in maintenance mode; spending only where necessary and not hiring, expanding or ordering more inventories until the future becomes more 'certain.

'”
http://www.nfib.com/press-media/pres...em?cmsid=61152

Note the source is the National Federation of Independent Businesses annual survey... Not some Right Wingers who know nothing about business as you claim.

Health care costs are the top factor affecting business decisions ahead of a presidential election that features very different visions for reform, according to a survey released today by the Principal Financial Group.

Fifty-seven percent of respondents in the Principal survey said health care concerns were affecting their business decisions, with 54 percent citing the economy. The Des Moines-based financial services company hired Harris Interactive to survey 604 small- and midsize-business owners in August.

Other issues of concern were taxes, which were cited by 45 percent of respondents; gas prices, which were cited by 43 percent; unemployment, 37 percent; and inflation, 36 percent...

The problem for many employers is one of uncertainty as they try to determine where and how to put their money to work, said Amy Friedrich, a vice president in Principal's specialty benefits division. Two-thirds of the 604 employers said they were holding off on making long-term financial commitments.
.

http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/d...owners/article

Plenty more of those can be found without a hard search on the web. But you and Krugman alone dispute it.

paraclete · Oct 28, 2012, 01:28 PM

What you are saying Ex is businessmen are behaving like a lot of scared rabbits because they don't know where the fox is. Well the reality is they never know where the fox is and tax is a very small part of the real business equation, which is how much can I sell and how fast can I grow. Growth is perhaps a little stagnant right now in some sectors and it might be a little harder to figure how much they can sell, but if their decisions are based on whether the tax position might be altered by a couple of percent they are fools

tomder55 · Oct 28, 2012, 02:19 PM

Taxes are but one of the issues causing uncertainty. Many businesses are looking at a pending fiscal cliff that includes sequestration. Many businesses have not sent out the pink slips already because of a special request of the Obama adm for them to ignore the laws provisions to give a 3 month notice before layoffs.
Then there is the blank check that the Democrat Congress gave to the Director of the new Consumer Financial Protection Board (CFPB) ,from the Dodd-Frank law ,to make regulation on the fly ,and to interpret regulations as the Director sees fit. This is definitely impacting the money available in the credit market even as the Fed has pumped Monopoly money into the system.
Then there is the potential impact of a Euro collapse as their social nanny-state system continues to implode.
I could go on but you get the point. If it is a handful of businesses that are reacting this way you can then claim that they are 'fools ' . When you see a significant part of the market reacting that way ,then it has to be something else . I chalk it down to an administration that came in hostile to business ;and has not changed it's stripes.

paraclete · Oct 28, 2012, 06:21 PM

What you are saying Tom is there is an environment of fear, of negative thinking, worrying about things that may have no real impact. The US is not Greece, Tom and it should not be thinking like Greece. You are seeing growth, small growth admittedly, but growth, now is the time to respond expectantly, not to hide in fear. The right wants to claim Obama's policies have made no difference, that is not true, it hasn't yielded spectacular results, but things have turned around. What your economy needs is some restructuring reducing burdens on business such as health coverage and paper work

tomder55 · Oct 29, 2012, 04:03 AM

Ridiculous growth ;a GDP that is growing less than the population . To stay steady we should be at 4 % .We should be growing even faster given the extent of the fall. It is government policies that are shackling growth and the business community knows it. This isn't a extreme Right wing talking point . It is what businesses across the nation are saying (except EX) .

What your economy needs is some restructuring reducing burdens on business such as health coverage and paper work

It is not just paperwork . The Bakken fields are now producing 5% of the oil of the nation . It would be producing 15% with a pipeline that the President's anti-growth policies blocks. That is but one example of the myriad of anti-growth policies and regulations he has already implemented... and that doesn't scratch the surface of what he has planned if we unfortunately reelect him.

excon · Oct 29, 2012, 04:40 AM

Hello again, tom:

This isn't a extreme Right wing talking point .

No? I suspect MOST businessmen are Republicans.

If you notice, my post is not a left wing talking point.. It's a capitalist/free market talking point.. What I LOVE about business, is that it doesn't care about me. It doesn't care about my politics or my criminal record. It doesn't care about ANYTHING but supply and demand.. And, when YOUR market makes demands on you, and you HESITATE because you're "uncertain", SOME businessman WON'T hesitate, because he's NOT uncertain, and you lose.. And you might lose EVERYTHING.

I didn't make those rules. They're not left wing rules.. They're not Democrat talking points. They're the way things work.. And, if ANYBODY should know that, it's you guys.

Now, do I doubt that some people are, in fact, mixing their politics with their business, and can't tell WHICH way to go?? No. But, if they DO what you/they SAY they're doing, they'll LOSE... Commerce waits for no man..

You KNOW that to be true, too, if you could only get your politics out of the way...

Excon

tomder55 · Oct 29, 2012, 04:56 AM

Businesses are reacting the way they are because the policies of the government really does affect their short and long term planning. That is just a fact. There are too many surveys ;too many prominent business owners ,too many economists supporting what I say to make me believe they are all irrational or making political points that would hurt their businesses.
I agree that supply and demand and a customer base drive business. Perhaps it is the government policies that are affecting business on the demand side . But I doubt it . Consumer confidence in the Commerce Dept report last week was good ;especially for durable goods ( automobiles, refrigerators, etc.), which saw growth at 8.5 percent. But business investment remained weak, with fixed investments (buildings and equipment,) declining 1.3 percent after climbing 3.6 percent in the second quarter. How do you explain that ? If the demand is on the increase then why are your compadres in the business world NOT investing ? Don't be surprised if the unemployment report Friday corrects upward from the last report .

paraclete · Oct 29, 2012, 05:05 AM

Hey reality check here, you are going through the greatest depression since the great depression. Don't you realise we have one of these about every century and every time they are caused by capitalist greed. That is how the capitalist system you love so much works, boom and bust. Now you want to berate someone because he hasn't solved this. Hasn't thrown enough money at it. George W Bush couldn't solve it, he caused it. Ronald Reagan couldn't solve it and no little black boy from Chigago can solve it either. You can reduce tax to nothing or increase it 100%, it won't make any difference, because when you have no money you don't pay tax. What it takes is what you don't have; consensus

excon · Oct 29, 2012, 05:43 AM

Hello again, tom:

the policies of the government really does affect their short and long term planning. That is just a fact.

You make my point for me. What you miss, is that it's ALWAYS been that way. I've been in business for over 40 years, and I've never been certain about anything.. There's ALWAYS been some politician, or some bureaucrat messing around with my business. ALWAYS!! If I waited for certainty, I would NEVER have gone into business..

Therefore, given that THESE times are NO different than ANY time in my memory, the accusation that Obama is causing "uncertainty" IS absolutely a Republican talking point.

Excon

tomder55 · Oct 29, 2012, 06:05 AM

I am not a business man .I work for business men and I know that they do not ignore regulatory requirements and tax policies. It makes a huge difference in the business models they follow;where they locate ,if and when they hire ;and even if they stay in the industry. Currently there are many in my industry that are cashing in their chips and finding other things to do with their money . They have no plan to spend the money necessary tocomply with new regulations currently being implemented and enforced ;and future regulations being considered. You say they have no impact ;you are wrong . Maybe the industry consolidates into fewer hands (too big to fail) . But what it means is less opportunity to compete.

tomder55 · Oct 29, 2012, 06:45 AM

Sandy is about to slam . Hopefully I'll have power for a few more hours. If not ;catch y'all later

excon · Oct 29, 2012, 07:23 AM

Hello again, tom:

You say they have no impact ;you are wrong .

I didn't say they don't have impact.. I said I ADJUST for the impact. But, when my market is talking to me, and I'm VERY close to it, whatever machinations are going on in the heads of my fearless leaders has NOTHING to do with my decision to address my customers needs.

Excon

PS> Batten down the hatches, and hang tight..

speechlesstx · Oct 29, 2012, 12:17 PM

Dude, all I can say is look around, it ain't happening. I know you're averse to evidence, but look around.

excon · Oct 29, 2012, 01:37 PM

Hello Steve:

What does a business man look like who's keeping his money on the sidelines?? I don't know what I'm supposed to see.

excon

speechlesstx · Oct 29, 2012, 01:50 PM

He probably looks like someone doing one-stop shopping for taxpayer dollars at Obama's new Dept. of Business. Or Jon Corzine.

cdad · Oct 29, 2012, 05:00 PM

Originally Posted by excon

Hello Steve:

What does a business man look like who's keeping his money on the sidelines??? I dunno what I'm supposed to see.

excon

You know what they look like. Im sure you played monopoly before. Just look for MrMoneybags. Yes that is his official name. :)

paraclete · Oct 29, 2012, 06:14 PM

It's easy, they look like someone in last year's suit and a two year old car

talaniman · Oct 30, 2012, 10:31 AM

The American business model only works in China or India where there are more customers, and cheap labor,and no rules or regulations. That's because it's a third world business mentality.

They guys that always cause the business down turns never pay for getting it turned around and uncertainty is but a smokescreen to be greedy and NOT participate in rebuilding. Profits over people, fast, quick, and easy. No risk,high reward.