[tomder55]

Will Red Julia Gillard form a government in Aussie by forming a coalition with the Greens ?

And if she does ,will she pull the already leftist Labour party further left and adopt some of the Greens positions like breaking ties with the US, closing uranium mines, dismantling the nuke reactor and a return to 1911?

Or have the Greens sucked enough wind out of Red Julia's sails that Tony Abbott and the Liberals (aka the conservatives ) will be able to forge an alliance with the Independents and save the country from Labour's follies ?

[tomder55]

Australian Elections Explained

[TUT317]

Will Red Julia Gillard form a government in Aussie by forming a coalition with the Greens ?

And if she does ,will she pull the already leftist Labour party further left and adopt some of the Greens positions like breaking ties with the US, closing uranium mines, dismantling the nuke reactor and a return to 1911?

Or have the Greens sucked enough wind out of Red Julia's sails that Tony Abbott and the Liberals (aka the conservatives ) will be able to forge an alliance with the Independents and save the country from Labour's follies ?

Hi Tom,

If we think back before the election 'Red' Kevin had something like a twenty seat majority in the House of Reps. Now 'Red' Julia has approximately the same number of seats as 'the conservatives'

I am just wonder why two political parties which represent such extreme views would attract approximately the same number of votes on a two party preferred basis?

Is there something wrong with the Australian public? Or, is it the case there is no 'great divide' in Australian politics? The independents which have particular political positions in relation to left and right have always had a working relationship. This was evident in the previous parliament. The talk between the independents suggests that nothing will change in terms of working relationship despite the fact that one of the 'independents' is Green.

Tom, I think you are trying to compare American politics to Australian politics. There is no comparison.

Regards

Tut

[tomder55]

Yes I am . This is interesting to me . The way I see it there is a Green and Croc Dundee Mad Max and Steve Erwin from the Outback ,and they will throw their loyalty to the party that can bring broad band to the Outback asap.
Am I right so far ?

From what I am reading and hearing ,this is as unprecedented in Aussie politics as Florida 2000 was for us.

No matter who wins ,the experts I've been listening to are prediciting a new election within the year.

The good thing that is coming out of this is the repudiation of ultra-Keynesian stimulus and squeezing tax revenues out of every rock. KRudd took a clear majority and squandered it .

I like what I see of Abbott . He's a surfer dude . Who better to give it a go ?

[TUT317]

yes I am . This is interesting to me . The way I see it there is a Green and Croc Dundee Mad Max and Steve Erwin from the Outback ,and they will throw their loyalty to the party that can bring broad band to the Outback asap.
Am I right so far ?

From what I am reading and hearing ,this is as unprecedented in Aussie politics as Florida 2000 was for us.

No matter who wins ,the experts I've been listening to are prediciting a new election within the year.

The good thing that is coming out of this is the repudiation of ultra-Keynesian stimulus and squeezing tax revenues out of every rock. KRudd took a clear majority and squandered it .

I like what I see of Abbott . He's a surfer dude . Who better to give it a go ?

Hi Tom,

Believe it or not Australia is not an isolated outpost missing from the civilized world. Take no notice of Mad Max and Croc Dundee movies. We are not all uneducated. We have equity in education and health care. This is why we try and squeeze tax revenue out of every rock.

This is probably why American politics is so different to Australian politics. No government in the right mind ( left or right) would try and do away with universal health care.

Another election within the year? You could be right.

Regards

Tut

[tomder55]

We are not all uneducated. We have equity in education and health care. This is why we try and squeeze tax revenue out of every rock.

From what I hear the miners had a slightly different view, and that is why KRudd is bitterly crying about assassination today.

[TUT317]

From what I hear the miners had a slightly different view, and that is why KRudd is bitterly crying about assassination today.

Hi again Tom,

I assume you are talking about "squeezing tax dollars", not education and health.

Generally speaking Australians don't mind tax dollars going into such things as health care.
I can't speak for every miner but it seems as though the main problem was loss of jobs rather than tax dollars going into government programms. Provided of course these programms are seen to be responsible.


Tut

[paraclete]

Will Red Julia Gillard form a government in Aussie by forming a coalition with the Greens ?

And if she does ,will she pull the already leftist Labour party further left and adopt some of the Greens positions like breaking ties with the US, closing uranium mines, dismantling the nuke reactor and a return to 1911?

Or have the Greens sucked enough wind out of Red Julia's sails that Tony Abbott and the Liberals (aka the conservatives ) will be able to forge an alliance with the Independents and save the country from Labour's follies ?

Hello tom I think the answer to most of this is no although I wouldn't doubt her agenda would have to be more "green" such as implementing the ETS and putting a tax on carbon.

Let's try to put this in perspective there is one green member in the House of Reps so the help the greens can give is very limited. Gillard will need the help of some very rabid and some what right wing independents including the toxic Bobcat (Katter) who is a loose cannon I could see the bobcat signing on out of spite and then going back to his independent stance as soon as there is something he doesn't like which could quite easily be an ETS

Here are some thoughts Julia Gillard 'trashing' system with Treasury plan, say Tony Abbott | News.com.au

The fact is the independents supporting Gillard is a sure fire death wish at the next election, these guys exist in what are otherwise super conservative electorates current state of play 71 seats each with 76 required for a majority a poll says 55% want them to support the coalition

[paraclete]

I like what I see of Abbott . He's a surfer dude . Who better to give it a go ?

Hey Tom you got that wrong he's the life saver type, body surfer, triathelon and general all round over achiever, not a laid back bone in his body
But
I'll agree with you I'd rather give the mad monk a go than the little red fox, I don't trust her and let's forget likening bobcat to any of our outback heroes, I think bobcat is like that character in the west wing, can't remember his name , Bob, I think, they gave him the VP job as a compromise to knoble the President

[paraclete]

This is what happens when you get a little power Bobcat has decided that now that he has the power we might as well redraw the map and include the Kimberly in the Northern Territory. No doubt this new land and bigger state will be called Katter and he will be declared king.

Broome should be part of Northern Territory, independent MP Bob Katter says | News.com.au Katter could then be the member of two electorates, Katter and Kennedy both very remote places where the hats are big and the sheep few and brains even fewer. I expect the next we will hear from Bobcat is we turn the waters of the Ord inland and create the inland sea, thereby eliminating the problem of linking his present electorate with his new electorate; strategic thinker this Bobcat

[tomder55]

I like him already . He wears a cowboy hat .

What he is proposing looks like what we call gerrymandering .

I'm still learning your system . The Tasmanian Devil Andrew Wilkie is a Green or an Independent ? I've read reports calling him both. From here it looks like he will be the king/queen maker and will have an inordinate amt of power in that he could make or destroy the minority government regardless of which party wins.

[paraclete]

I like him already . He wears a cowboy hat .

What he is proposing looks like what we call gerrymandering .

I'm still learning your system . The Tasmanian Devil Andrew Wilkie is a Green or an Independant ? I've read reports calling him both. From here it looks like he will be the king/queen maker and will have an inordinate amt of power in that he could make or destroy the minority government regardless of which party wins.

No, Tom, Wilkie is the whistleblower ex spy independent who rained on the Iraq War parade and therefore doesn't like the Liberals. He would naturally side with Labor. He was a Greens candidate in the 2007 election but obviously thinks he can do better on his own. Tassie is a pecular place full of tree huggers and radicals like Bob Browne leader of the Greens, sort of like your Alaska. The whole problem here is that the little red fox can't keep support together and has lost two seats to minorities as well as a number to the Liberals. At state level Tassie is a mess with a minority government sort of reflecting the federal problem.


As to Bobcat's proposal, no, what he is proposing is excising a vast mineral rich and sparsely populated territory from another state. Katter isn't representing either of these places. This wouldn't add any seats to the parliament and as the population is aboriginal wouldn't change the support base. Gerrymandering is changing electoral boundries to move support in your favor we had plenty of that in this election with many seats made marginal which favoured the Labor Party but the shift in support overwhelmed it. Wearing a hat like that here places you on the fringe, we have a saying, the bigger the hat the less the sheep or in other words; just a poser

[tomder55]

I see comparisons to the recent US election cycles .In our case the wings are political movements within the parties .
In your case fringe groups slap the label party on themselves ,and their affect is the same on a divided nation. They have an inordinate and disproportional influence.

[paraclete]

I see comparisons to the recent US election cycles .In our case the wings are political movements within the parties .
In your case fringe groups slap the label party on themselves ,and there affect is the same on a divided nation. They have an inordinate and disproportional influence.

That's why they do it. The wings you speak of we call factions, the Labor Party has a number of them, whereas the right side of politics here has separate parties but we also have independents usually people who were first elected under a party label and have fallen out with the party machine and as we say; gone to sit on the cross benches. The Greens are too radical even for the Labor Party. Some of our parties are splinter groups mainly Labor offshoots. The preferential voting system allows these groups to develop whereas your system eliminates them quickly and pushes people into your major parties

Because of proportional representation in the Senate there are miriad candidates and minor parties, usually we see three or four emerge, the three major Parties and one minor like the Greens and more rarely one or two others, these are people with a narrow agenda
http://images.smh.com.au/2010/08/26/...eare-420x0.jpg

[tomder55]

What is the holdup in determining the winner ?

From the way I read it ,it is in the independent's best interests to choose a side while they have some influence. If they play their hand wrong there will be new elections and no one will give them the time of day . Correct ?

[paraclete]

What is the holdup in determining the winner ?

From the way I read it ,it is in the independent's best interests to choose a side while they have some influence. If they play their hand wrong there will be new elections and no one will give them the time of day . correct ?

I don't see it that way. The electorate is almost perfectly split on a two party preferred basis. 300 votes difference at this time. Independents and minor parties have been an important part of political life for a long time. This time they have greater influence and after July 1 there may be a greater problem. The major parties don't want to go back to a second election because it's possible Labor will be punished even further. The possibility of blood letting in Labor is high if they don't get government. The little red fox could be out on her ear overnight. We had a big informal vote and that's unlikely second time around. There was a big protest vote here in favour of the Greens so those votes could go back to labor without altering the result. This is the problem of preferential voting, one or two percent can produce a huge change and the loss of a seat is crucial now. You are looking at a situation where only 80% of the vote is counted so a few seats could swing yet
Labor 37.8% -5.6% 72
Coalition 44.2% +2.1% 73
Greens 11.5% +3.8% 1
Others 6.5% -0.2% 4
http://www.smh.com.au/business/what-...831-14b1b.html

[paraclete]

The parties getting rough
'No Andrew Wilkies' in Bob Katter's wishlist for Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott |
Australia now has a North South divide which will make the independents decision interesting

[tomder55]

Not sure you recall the Florida vote in the 2000 elections here. The longer it goes on ,the more contentious it becomes.

So far you don't have demonstrations and court challenges.

[paraclete]

No Tom we are fairly civilised here and somewhat bemused

[paraclete]

http://resources3.news.com.au/images...ka-cartoon.jpg