[SkyGem]

ABC News: Obama Predicts Clinton Win in Pennsylvania

[BABRAM]

Hillary started in Pennsylvania with 16 percentage points ahead of Barack six weeks ago. Her lead has dwindled and for Barack, a loss of 12 points are less is considered a victory. Also campaign disheartening for Hillary is the fact that she could get the populace vote in the State, but probably doesn't pick up many delegates out of a win.

[SkyGem]

Hillary started out in Pennsylvania with 16 percentage points ahead of Barack six weeks ago. Her lead has dwindled and for Barack, a loss of 12 points are less is considered a victory. Also campaign disheartening for Hillary is the fact that she could get the populace vote in the State, but probably doesn't pick up many delegates out of a win.

Still, it has to be plenty disheartening for Obama to know that he spent all of those MILLIONS in that state and the state prefers Clinton. And the winner is indeed VICTORIOUS if they take the state! So, it has to hurt no matter what the spin!

[BABRAM]

Any connection between your reality and mine is purely coincidental. I think you're to shortsighted to understand Obama's campaign goal for Pennsylvania. He started 16 points down and then targeted certain districts as to keep the delegate count balance equivalent. He just needs to hold off the Hillary vampire until the DNC finally decides to drive the stake into her. Then he'll go monster hunting for John Republicanstein.

[tomder55]

Bottom line;besides his own State he has not won a single large blue state that is the traditional Democrat base. Hillary can go to the super delegates with that argument that she would be the stronger general election candidate.

[NeedKarma]

[spitvenom]

We are having record numbers of people in philly turning out to vote. Ultimately it's an exciting day for democracy. If we have record turnout it really doesn't matter, people are engaged again in their electoral process and that's the best gift that these candidates have given us.

[BABRAM]

bottom line;besides his own State he has not won a single large blue state that is the traditional Democrat base. Hillary can go to the super delegates with that argument that she would be the stronger general election candidate.

The dynamics change after the primaries when there will not be two Democrats splitting votes. Those big blue States don't have to chose between two Democrats in a general election. Pubs are wishful thinking because they fear Obama's upside more then the recognized Hillary, whom first voted for a war in Iraq and was nothing more than John McCain in a skirt. :cool:

[tomder55]

If she wins Pennsylvania, she will have won every large state except Illinois. Polls show Clinton running better against McCain in the states that are always close (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, Ohio).Again this will be a powerful argument she will bring to the Super deligates. But Obama is ultimately the winner because they are afraid of alienating the black vote. The question is a matter of calculation ;which special interest groups that feels entitled gets screwed ?

[BABRAM]

Again you are wishing Clinton was running against Obama in the general election, but that's not happening. That's funny! Hillary's not even winning the primary against Barack. Your equations are mathematically fuzzy because you assume that well over twenty-five percent of the support for Hillary would go to McCain in those large States, should Obama get the nomination. The reason Super Delegates are given much attention in the race is because technically the probability of either candidate picking up enough delegates is unlikely. Another part of your contention is that this will be a tight general election. Well then I got news for you, those smaller States will come into play and Obama has that advantage to present to the Super Delegates as well.

[tomder55]

The reason Super Delegates are given much attention in the race is because technically the probability of either candidate picking up enough delegates is unlikely.

Actually the reason is that the Dems set up this convoluted proportional delegate system for the primaries and the super delegates as a hedge against the irresponsible Democrat electrorate . That's not my view but the Dems view. Advice to the Dem. Leadership... Winner takes all is the way to go .

[BABRAM]

Tom- Had it not been for a tight primary, we would had not heard nearly as much about Super Delegates .They don't fly around with capes on their backs and from what I'm hearing in some of their interviews I'm not that impressed. I wish it was popular vote winner take all on every election level and than we would had never been bamboozled by another Bush.