If Mr. Biden can’t run for re-election, his natural successor is Vice President
Kamala Harris. But Ms. Harris is even less popular than the president: Only 35% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of her compared with 41% for Mr. Biden, according to a recent
Wall Street Journal poll. Ms. Harris’s approval rating in November 2021
hit a historic low for any modern vice president, and she is viewed much less favorably than her four predecessors at the same point in their respective tenures.
Furthermore, Mr. Trump trounces Ms. Harris in a general election match-up. According to a Harvard CAPS-Harris poll released this year, Mr. Trump leads Ms. Harris by 10 points, 49% to 39%.
Who, then, could run—and win—for Democrats?
Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg comes to mind, as he sought the nomination in 2020. But Mr. Buttigieg’s reputation has been tarnished by his department’s mishandling of the train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, and by the Federal Aviation Administration’s computer-system failure in January, which grounded thousands of flights across the country.
Moreover, aside from Ms. Harris, no one in the Biden administration is a realistic option for the top of the ticket. If Mr. Biden were to decide against running, it would likely be late in the process, making it almost impossible for him to deny Ms. Harris the nomination while putting his political weight behind another administration official.
Should Mr. Biden decide late this year or early next not to run, it would be difficult for the most visible Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom of California, to mount a viable and well-financed campaign quickly. Similar hurdles exist for lower-profile, but successful, Democratic governors such as Laura Kelly of Kansas and Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan.
The only Democrats with a reasonable shot of winning the presidency are those with immediate fundraising potential and national name recognition.