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Hello:
The Middle East is in revolt. It started in Tunisia. President, Zine el-Abidine Ben Alileader fled... Now, Egypt is under siege, and they're approaching a pivotal moment. Mubarak hasn't fled, and has called out the army - an army equipped and trained by the US.
We could be looking at another Tienanmen Square moment... If Egypt goes, they're all gone.
excon
Good morning Ex. Hope all is well with you.
Yes, this is a situation that is cause for grave concern. I don't believe it will turn out to be another Tiananman Square with the Egyptian government prevailing as China did. Yes, there will be many deaths. They are quickly racking up and if we ever find out the exact death toll, it won't be for a long time to come. But, the circumstances behind Tiananmen Square were far different than what is occurring in Egypt now.
While watching news reports last night, it appeared to me the police & army fear the masses more than Mubarak's ire. One group was hiding out waiting for the current wave of excited frenzy & anger in the streets to die down a bit before they ventured out again. From comments they made, it appeared their hearts weren't into their jobs. I am not surprised. The Egyptians do not train their children to place their government before all else as the Chinese do.
As of this morning, it appears Mubarek is now a one man operation. He has mistakenly assumed forcing his cabinet to resign and pledging reforms (without being specific) will appease the people. He has made a serious tactical error in his determination to dig in his heels and stay put. They want him gone. And he will be gone. In my mind this is more in line with the Shah of Iran's ousting than a Tiananman square situation.
Ex are you saying the US has been propping up arab dictators again? And that they are the source of the dictators military power? So when are you going to invade to force democracy upon the Egyptian people? Strange how these countries that have these problems have large reserves of oil.
Clete, we did supply the Egyptian government with military weaponry. Not sure you can call that propping up the dictators but maybe Israel will agree with you on that.
It appears democracy is exactly what the Egyptians want so there isn't any need for us to invade the country. However, I wouldn't be surprised if we sent in some help to keep Hamas, Hezbollah, or any other extremist group from taking over the country. And yes, doing that would go hand in hand with ensuring our supply of oil isn't disrupted.
I'm sure the supply of oil from Egypt to the US will not be disrupted since it isn't exactly important, but there are other issues such as the transit of US ships to and from other places, etc. Any person who has been in power for as long as Mabarak is a dictator and would own his tenue to the favourable patronage of the US, just as Saddam did so long ago. It is the price of empire. Egypt was a client state of USSR and so winning it over would have been a prize. The concern in Egypt is not Hamas or Hezbollah but the Islamic Brotherhood. Each of these places have their home grown versions of Al Qaeda, the US would be very busy if it tried to combat all of them, easier to give a local strongman support and let him kill his own, probably why the US didn't intervene when Saddam took revenge on the ShiiaQuote:
Originally Posted by Just_Another_Lemming
You are probably incorrect in thinking the Egyptians want democracy, what they want is an end to tyranny, the two are not the same since arabs have no tradition of democracy. In islamic countries it is normal having one person making decisions whether at government, religious or family level. Debate is not encouraged.
POTUS spend very little time on foreign policy issues in his SOTU Address . He briefly paid lip service to US civilian accomplishments in Iraq and Afghanistan... Which fell in well with his general theme of 'soft power' and engagement .
"This year, our civilians have come down, and a new government has been formed,” “This year, our civilians will forge a lasting partnership with the Iraqi people, while we finish the job of bringing our troops out of Iraq."
"Thanks to our heroic troops and civilians, fewer Afghans are under the control of the insurgency."
Iran :
“Because of a diplomatic effort to insist that Iran meet its obligations, the Iranian government now faces tougher and tighter sanctions than ever before,”
Sudan:
“Recent events have shown us that what sets us apart must not just be our power – it must be the purpose behind it. In South Sudan – with our assistance – the people were finally able to vote for independence after years of war. "
You get the idea .You've heard this from him before speak long and loud... carry small stick.
Then there was Tunisia .There he supported the people who have succeeded in overthrowing a strongman corrupt despot.
“We saw that same desire to be free in Tunisia, where the will of the people proved more powerful than the writ of a dictator. And tonight, let us be clear: the United States of America stands with the people of Tunisia, and supports the democratic aspirations of all people,”
What is happening in Tunisia is having a ripple effect throughout the Maghreb and has reached Egypt. Cairo is the place where POTUS made his infamous outreach speech to the Muslim world at Al-Azhar University . President Hosni Mubarak's family has fled the country.
While it's all well and good to speak of the democratic aspirations of the people . He falls way short of the JFK "We shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe, in order to assure the survival and the success of liberty."
OBL is famously quoted as saying “when people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature, they will like the strong horse”.
POTUS consistently demonstrates that he prefers to be the weak horse. By backing engagement ,dialogue ,rapproachment ,and soft power ABOVE all else. He also demonstrates that he is the wrong horse.
Jihadistan is on the march . I see a Muslim Brotherhood dominated North Africa in our future.
The Bush doctrine was premised as offering a 3rd way... but you call it imposition even though the people have more than once went to the polls and voted in secular leadership .
I wasn't speaking about the supply of oil from Egypt. I was referring to a disruption of the flow of oil out of that region.Quote:
Originally Posted by paraclete
You are making a blanket generalization regarding the world's islamic community. I believe the Egyptian people are not that far out of touch with what is going on in the rest of the world.Quote:
Originally Posted by paraclete
This morning, I have heard that Mubarek is listening to many other countries and is attempting to set up a more democratic style operation to appease his people. I still think they won't be happy until he is completely ousted. I guess we will just have to wait and see what ultimately happens.
It is a generalisation to say arabs want democracy, they want change and this fueled by what they observe in other places through the media. Many countries in the islamic world have repressive governments, even those that might be democratically elected. Mubarek has sacked a number of ministers and appointed others to the posts, certainly not a democratic style of operation. It may be that Egypt will need a different constitution before a more democratic regime could take over without revolution. There apparently is no opposition and therefore few who could take over without the taint of the current regimeQuote:
Originally Posted by Just_Another_Lemming
What may have started as a legit positive profreedom protest is increasingly being coopted by the Muslim Brotherhood and other jihadists . As is too often the case ,the alternative the people will have is authoritarian military rule or radical jihadist takeover .
You can tell the general point when the Muslim Brotherhood coopted the revolt . What started as an intense but peaceful protest became riots ,gangs of thugs who attack police and fellow protesters ,car and building fires and looting and sacking of ancient artifacts .8000 Muslim Brotherhood prisoners escaped and have joined the death squads resulting in more civilian deaths.
Mubarak deserves whatever he gets . But what will result from this will not be better for the Egyptian people.
I know POTUS et al is talking like they sort of support the democratic asperations . If he is sincere then where was he last year ,when the only thugs on the streets where the minions of the Mahdi hatter murdering Neda Agha-Soltan, sparking a genuine people's revolt ?
Back then it was the Obots who thought it better to deal with the despots.
Obots, despots, is there really any difference? When a government panders to a despotic regime they make themselves the same. Obama will have no answers for this because he doesn't want to intervene in another Muslim country, one at a time is more than enough. Let a popular revolt run its course, sometimes it works, and something's get better, An assassination here, an exile there and everything goes back to being the sameQuote:
Originally Posted by tomder55
Most revolutions follow the French Revolution model.. Popular revoltfirst ,then the extremists take over ,and a reign of terror and anarchy ensues... followed by the takeover by a military strongman.Quote:
Let a popular revolt run its course, sometimes it works, and something's get better, An assassination here, an exile there and everything goes back to being the same
You are right. That is a generalization. One I did not make. I was specifically discussing the Egyptian people.Quote:
Originally Posted by paraclete
I believe you are right about this current situation with Mubarek.Quote:
Originally Posted by paraclete
I stand by what I said. I do believe he will be ousted as the Shah of Iran was ousted. However, I am not so quick to assume the Brotherhood will be able to take over as completely as both you and Tom do. I am taking a wait and see approach on all of this. I do recognize the Brotherhood have quickly mobilized their followers. But, many countries have diplomatic relations with Egypt for various reasons. The most important from this perspective is Israel. They will do everything they must do to ensure their interests remain a priority with the Egyptian government.
This morning I have heard the Egyptian people who have spoken with reporters have stated they want Mubarak and his puppets out, very much want to maintain their relationships with the U.S. and Israel, and want a democratic government set up. They are naming Mohamed ElBaradei as the most practical choice to take over until a stable government is set up.
Hello again:
I wish I had something intelligent to say... But, I'm going to say it anyway...
While our dependence on strong men MIGHT have worked out in the short run, it's been a failure in the long run. Iran is a good example... Did that stop us? Nope. Now, 30 years later, here we are again. We don't know whether to support the bastard we KNOW, for fear of the bastard we don't know... Which, of course, makes our claim that we support democracy a BIG LIE.
So, who are we, after all? We're becoming MORE like the world, than the world is becoming MORE like us. I believe that our little flicker of freedom is coming to an end.
excon
Every time I think I have an opinion about what's going on and what it might mean for the future, I change my mind.Quote:
Originally Posted by excon
I've come to the conclusion that I'm so far from it - and know so little - that it would be impossible for me to come to any conclusions, or make any reasonable guesses about what it could come to.
I do, though, wonder about what's going on in Egypt particularly...
* Why all of the sudden, with (apparently) no hint that it was coming? Was there any hint that masses were against Mubarak 6-months or a year ago?
* With no apparent organizational leadership of the protesters, what are they thinking can happen? Even if Mubarak is a despot, what can he do now? Surely he couldn't just "step down"... or say "ok you protesters, what do you want?"
* If Mubarak stepped down or died today, who would become leader of the country? Might s/he be "worse" than Mubarak?
* A friend of mine proposes that there is some unknown entity who is orchestrating both the Tunisia uprising and the events in Egypt. I just cannot buy that conspiracy theory... but admittedly I have no alternative theory.
* As for references to Tienanmen Square: If this was another "Tienanmen Square" type of thing, then wouldn't it mean that nothing comes of it? Am I wrong in remembering that the government in China basically just quashed that uprising - and made little to no significant changes as a result of it?
Hello again, Rick:Quote:
Originally Posted by RickJ
You are NOT wrong... The Chinese military massacred a bunch of demonstrators, and that "quashed" it. THAT, apparently, isn't going to happen this time... IF the Chinese hadn't done that, we'd be facing a much different China today...
What I LOVE about this thing, is it appears to be people seeking to be free from the yolk of oppression... How can we NOT like that? That's OUR history? Certainly the Tea Party can relate with all their talk about the "tree of liberty" needing to be refurbished. Or, is that stuff just reserved for us??
No, Rick. I don't believe this is being guided by anybody...
excon
As a lover of freedom and democracy I certainly DO have thoughts of support for the people protesting... but in the back of my mind I am fearful of the potential outcomes since the many questions I have about the situation are yet unanswered.Quote:
Originally Posted by excon
It would be a tragedy if this did not result in more freedoms, and a move toward democracy, for Egypt and it's people.
I wish, hope and pray that it comes to a good, positive and non violent conclusion.
Rick
Isaiah 19:2
That could be true of the US as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by tomder55
Of course it is .
I cannot agree that Isaiah 19:2 is referring specifically to what is going on today.Quote:
Originally Posted by tomder55
When Isaiah was written "Egyptians" meant something different than it does today.
Generally speaking, "Egyptian against Egyptian" has, methinks, happened many times since Isaiah was written - and may very well happen many times more in the future...
... which may very well be true about any other group of people that we can name today...
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