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-   -   Probability question (https://www.askmehelpdesk.com/showthread.php?t=518935)

  • Oct 21, 2010, 03:08 PM
    asusenna
    Probability question
    Subway passengers spend an average of $5 a day on subway fares. The standard deviation of the expenditure is $3. A simple random sample of 36 passengers is taken. What is the probability that the sample mean will be between $4 and $7?
  • Oct 21, 2010, 10:46 PM
    Unknown008

    Are you sure this is the correct question? I'm a little puzzled...

    The mean is given by
    The standard deviation by

    From this, we get q = 1.8 which is not possible... Also, we usually have cases up to three standard deviations from the mean, meaning that there will be passengers paying "-$4"? Either the standard deviation is too large, or the mean too small.

    Anyway, if that is indeed the correct question, it really isn't very realistic.

    We'll use a normal distribution.

    Let X be the price a passenger pays.

    X ~ N(5, 3^2)

    P(4 < X < 7) = P(-0.333 < z < 0.667) = P(z < 0.667) - P(z < -0.333)

    Which gives a probability of 0.3777
  • Oct 22, 2010, 02:38 PM
    asusenna
    Comment on Unknown008's post
    Thank you for your help. However this is a wrong solution.
    Correct solution is: we insert in TI-83 the smallest value, the largest value, mean and standard deviation Q/√N. Put normalcdf on calculator and insert 4, 7, 5, 0.5 = 0.9772
    Thank you
  • Oct 22, 2010, 11:30 PM
    Unknown008

    You gave the standard deviation as $3 and not $0.5... :rolleyes:

    Or that could be a distribution I haven't learned.
  • Oct 23, 2010, 05:20 AM
    galactus

    To find the probability that a sample mean will fall in a given interval, we can use





    In this case,



    The z-score is .02275



    The z-score is .9999683

    Subtract to the find the probability it will fall between 4 and 7 and we get

    .977218

    There is almost a 98% probability the sample mean will be between 4 and 7.
  • Oct 23, 2010, 06:31 AM
    Unknown008

    Hm... definitely unknown to me ;)

    Yes, I never worked with a probability sample mean being within a range, but only a certain value.

    I had defined my variable as being for one passenger. I wonder if this would still hold... Hm... we multiply the z value otherwise obtained by the square root of the sample size and take the probabilities... I'll try to remember that.

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