I am a 24 year old male that has only been out of prison now since June 22nd 2009, and I am no longer on a licence for release! So what are the chances of me going back to prison for criminal damage to a 2 by 4 shop window without lawfull intent to the value of £200

Really depends on how much of your sentence you served.
They could well take this into account as and when this damage action reachs court.