What are the chances that us customs will know that I am on probation. I have a misdemeanor.

On your visa you will declare, plus of course your PO will have given you permission to travel

You need your probation officer's prior written permission to travel out of the state or the country. If you do not have this written permission paperwork with you at the time the customs guy runs you in the computer you will not go past go and collect your $200 but go directly to jail to await your probation violation hearing before your original sentencing judge.

In other words, the possibility would be slim to none.