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  • Jan 21, 2006, 11:03 AM
    Mandanas
    Probability
    A man owns two old cars, A and B, and has trouble starting them on cold mornings. The probability both will start is 0.1; the probability B starts and A does not is 0.1; the probability that neither starts is 0.4.
    a) Find the probability that car A will start.
    b) Find the probability that car A will start, given car B starts.
    c) Find the probability that car B will start, given car A starts.

    Please show detailed solution. Thanks!
  • Jan 21, 2006, 05:35 PM
    reinsuranc
    Draw a rectangle, representing the sample space. The sum of all probabilities in the rectangle equals 1.

    Within the rectangle, draw two circles A and B that have a portion of their area overlapping.

    There are four distinct non-overlapping areas:

    1. The area where A and B overlap, whose probability is .1

    2. The remaining portion of B, which is B but not A, and whose probability is also .1

    3. The portion of the rectangle outside the two circles, which is neither A nor B, and whose probability is .4

    4. The remaining portion of A, which is A but not B, and whose probability is also is 1 - (.1 +.1 +.4) = .4

    Using the diagram,

    a) areas 1 + 4: .4 + .1 = .5
    b) area 1 / (areas 1 + 2): .1/.2 = .5
    c) area 1 / (areas 1 + 4): .1/.5 = .2

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