How would you compute the probability, for any given drive on any given hole in any given tournament of the following probabilities for Tiger Woods, currently rated the Number One player in the world:

Note: Let D = the event “a given drive”
I am NOT looking for specific probability numbers – I want to know how
you would compute them and what additional data you might need to
make the computation using the methodology you suggest.

a) P(D = 310 yards) = ? How would you determine this probability? What assumptions did you make? With this would I take the probability of the number of holes on a course as the sample

b) P(300 < D < 320) = ? How would you determine this probability? What
assumptions did you make? For this one would I use the number of holes as the sample as well as the difference of 320-300 to determine the probability of D

c) P(300 < D < 320) = ? How would you determine this probability? What assumptions did you make? Would this one be the same as b, but using 320 and 300 inclusively, since it should be less than equal to for D. It was left off when it was copied into the display.

I know that I am missing a lot of information, but not sure exactly how to proceed.

Thanks for any guidance.

Let me restate what I think I heard. You want to compute the probability that Tiger Woods will make a drive of the specified distance.

You would need a graph of his drives vs distance.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jrodgers

How would you compute the probability, for any given drive on any given hole in any given tournament of the following probabilities for Tiger Woods, currently rated the Number One player in the world:

Note: Let D = the event “a given drive”
I am NOT looking for specific probability numbers – I want to know how
you would compute them and what additional data you might need to
make the computation using the methodology you suggest.

a) P(D = 310 yards) = ? How would you determine this probability? What assumptions did you make? With this would I take the probability of the number of holes on a course as the sample

b) P(300 < D < 320) = ? How would you determine this probability? What
assumptions did you make? For this one would I use the number of holes as the sample as well as the difference of 320-300 to determine the probability of D

c) P(300 < D < 320) = ? How would you determine this probability? What assumptions did you make? Would this one be the same as b, but using 320 and 300 inclusively, since it should be less than equal to for D. It was left off when it was copied into the display.

I know that I am missing a lot of information, but not sure exactly how to proceed.

Thanks for any guidance.

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I think I understand what you are telling me, but how would I determine a probability of such an event when an event is a distribution of such in between like in (b) where the distribution is greater than 300 and less than 320 or in (c) where it is similar but also includes 300 and 320? Would I first calculate the probabilty of each distibution and then multiply them together?

Would I need to know the number of holes of golf is being played on the course. In this question I am able to make assumptions but I just not sure what assumptions make sense.

Thanks,

Let's make up some numbers (and take TW's name off the numbers as they are bogus, and may not even be realistic).

Let's assume that our player is aiming to drive 310 yards. Lets also assume his actual drive can be approximated using the normal distribution. Lets also say his mean drive is 305 yards with a standard deviation of 15 yards.

We now have some assumptions, I'll give you a chance to make some calculations with them. Let me know if you want me to do more explaining, if not you can explain the rest to me:D