I took money from my employer through doing refunds from bogus accounts... I took almost 15k and was arrested for the crime... I paid it all back through private restitution... The owner of the business has made a statement that he does not want me to go to jail... what are my chance of not seeing jail time...

It is always possible, but if the owner of the business in the victim statement says that he does not want you to go to jail that will go along way with the judge, and that you paid them back already