Today a friend sent the link: http:Peak Oil: Life After the Oil Crash to me. It consists of two very long pages of text, with a multitude of links with supportive material. In short, it presents a very bleak future for mankind. Virtually every alternative enegy source is discounted in a very convincing manner. It makes the "Essay On The Principal Of Population" written by Mr. Malthus, over 200 years ago, seem Pollyannish by comparison.

Since I consider myself to be a believer in the sprit and ingenuity of man, I feel that we shall overcome these obstacles. I am seeking input from others, so that I can convince my friend that it is not yet time to circle the wagons, hide the women, and prepare for "The Road Warrior" times.

Energy is available we just have to mine it. Most of the peak oil folks don't think about the extra oil we have laying around that we weren't using because it was too expensive. We have the technology now to get oil from the canada tar sands and the coal we have right here at home. There is also other options such as solar which will only get better with time and combined with hydrogen as a storage median we will have no problems with the peak oil well problem. Also as battery tech gets better we will use less oil. Toyota is already coming out with a plug in hybrid that the first 40 miles of the day are on battery which means once the tech get to more people and cars almost no one will be using gas except for long trips.

Hello Dr:

The answer is hemp. It makes 5 times as much ethanol per acre as corn - and the farm hands love it.

excon

We have become a wasteful society that is too dependent on convenience. IF the time ever comes we will have to learn to adjust to the fact that we can't drive to Wal Mart and McD's every day and find new ways of doing things. Heck, I would love it if we could go back to having horses to get around if it came down to it. All I need would be a horse, my computer and some MP3 player to make me happy.
Anyway, some people are saying that oil replenishes itself and it is all political scare tactics to say we are running out. When we actually 'run out' maybe the environmentalists will let us dig where they have not allowed us to dig before since they will not be able to sacrifice their ATV's and so forth.

I have been an avid proponent of nuclear power until such time that advances in technology make other sources more viable. Much to my surprise, that article stated that the reserves of uranium are VERY limited, and can only supply energy for a short time. I am hoping that some learned technocrat is able to find some serious flaws in the many depressing allegations made by that author.

Dr D, You have to consider the vast overpopulation of the planet... that and decreasing supplies of oil which is needed to make all sorts of products including gasoline, poses great challenges for the future.

I really can't read the future... no one can. What do you think?

A few years ago when Bush announced that he wanted to give 5 billion to move us to a hydrogen economy. I thought fantastic that must mean someone has found a cheap energy source so that we can waste a bunch of energy making hydrogen for cars. I mean only an idiot would spend billions on that unless they had a cheap way to produce hydrogen. Unfortunately I found out later that he was an idiot.

First of all, I disagree that we are running out of energy sources. We have ample energy sources that still have not been mined. This includes oil, coal, and shale.

Second of all, even if we run out of mine-able fuel sources, there are still other natural fuel sources. These include animal feces (smelly, but it burns pretty darn well), wood, vegitation in various forms (either distilled or raw), animal fats, and of course nuclear power.

Then there is solar power, hydro-power, geothermal power, etc. all of which are renewable forms of energy.

Nikola Tesla claimed to be able to tap into the natural electric field of the Earth to generate electric current, thus providing a self-replenishing supply of free electricity. According to Tesla, he had developed a device that anyone could plug unto the ground anywhere in the world and generate electricity. The idea was abandoned in disgust when JP Morgan asked him how they were supposed to charge for this service and he tried to explain that he was trying to generate FREE electricity. Morgan, a capitalist to the core, was having none of that "free" stuff. If he was financing the idea, he wanted to get paid. (As a side note, the US government has been in possession of Tesla's notes since 1943. If they dug them out of the archives, they could probably use them to engineer such a device. Maybe. Assuming that Tesla wasn't completely off his rocker as he was with his claim of a "death ray", of course.)

In any case, the point is that there are plenty of ways to generate efficient energy that have not been tapped. I'm really not all that worried about an Armageddon/Road Warrior scenario any time soon.

Elliot

Hello again, Dr:

I agree with the Wolverine. I know, close your mouths.

Every Armageddon we've faced has turned out to be an entrepreneurs dream. This is no different. Sure, there are going to be some economic relocations. And, of course, the entrenched industries don't like it. So what?

excon

Quote:

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Originally Posted by excon

Hello again, Dr:

I agree with the Wolverine. I know, close your mouths.

excon

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Quick, someone check the temperature in Hell. :eek:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ETWolverine

Quick, someone check the temperature in Hell. :eek:

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The Cowboys emptying Lincoln Field while spanking the Eagles and ex agreeing with Elliot in the same 24 hours - sure signs of the apocalypse :D

What I am looking for is for someone to show at least one of the author's bleak assessments of a possible solution to be all wet. I must confess that I have been preoccupied with other tasks, and am trying to have others do what I should be doing. So sorry for delegating. I am also conversing with a Socialist high school friend (class of 62), who has suggested many Draconian measures to solve the problem, that to me are slightly more palatable than a nuclear war, a great plague, or a giant meteor impact as a solution. This shows my evil nature for having an ulterior motive.

They have to get these dooms day scenarios straight. If peak oil was the concern then why all the fuss about global warming ? Oil use and all the hydrocarbon emissions would decline and there would be no need for mandatory draconian cap regulations .

As oil prices climb the rate of oil exploration must go up because the cost will justify the expense.36 Trillion barrels of oil shale in the continental US is available once the price is right. As prices go up, alternatives will also become cost effective, driving consumption of oil down. On the other post about the cost of oil I explained that my petro dollar is getting me more miles for the buck now than it did in the 1970s . I do not know how much more innovation we can extract from the internal combustion engine. But the engineers are on it.If American scientists don't do it other nations scientists will .


Tell your friend to read this : The Doomsday Myth: 10,000 Years of Economic Crises

Thank you tomder55. I shall order that book today.