open question I just don't get it .

The very limited debate over policy toward Russia these days is a prime example of the compliant press ' failure to challenge the parameters of conventional wisdom in favor of hawkish and confrontational approaches. Any questioning of the strategic sensibility of risking war with Russia over the theoretical but to date unfounded possibility of Ukraine joining NATO is deemed appeasing or Russia friendly . Yes Russian troops are on the borders of Ukraine. But all I hear is the west beating the drums of war .

Nobody does, except Putin...
NATO knows they messed up with their collective response over Crimea and wont let that kind of embarrassment happen again.
History has already shown how Russian (Soviet) expansionism works, it's doubtful that that play book has changed, just been dusted off some.
If Putin stuck with the 'Stans he might have a better chance, but as they offer little strategic valve, he wants the bigger prize.

The issue is NATO expansion to the border of Russia. Gorbachev complained that the West had tricked Moscow. "Many people in the West were secretly rubbing their hands and felt something like a flush of victory -- including those who had promised us: 'We will not move 1 centimeter further east,'" That was a promise made by US Sec State James Baker . When the reunification of Germany was negotiated Yeltzin said"the spirit of the treaty on the final settlement...precludes the option of expanding the NATO zone into the East." ]He also in a letter to Bubba Clintoon stated "But it is important to take into account how our public opinion might react to that step."

In 2002 NATO expanded into the Baltics a mere 350 miles from Moscow . For reasons that I have cited in the past this was an unacceptable provocation .

What gets me is that there is no strategic justification for the west to expand to include Ukraine . The west should at very least suspend any attempt of admitting Ukraine and assure Putin that we will honor the Minsk accords

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If Putin stuck with the 'Stans he might have a better chance, but as they offer little strategic valve, he wants the bigger prize.

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The Stans are strategically very important . Had any American foreign policy leader had any sense they would have realized how key they are ;and our interests and Russia's interests intersect there . Had we at the end of the cold war forged a strategic partnership with Russia against our common enemy jihadistan ;instead of pushing our forces to the Russian borders we would have been much better off.

As it stands now ;if the Europeans think it is in their interest to defend Ukraine ;a nation that has historic ties to Russia ,then by all means do it .

I for one would not commit American blood and treasure to defend them . Let NATO go into the dustbin of history . It is time for American troops to stop defending German beer halls . It is time for Europe to step up to the plate and commit sufficient resources to defend itself instead of counting on American mercenaries while they fund their social nanny states . Macron envisions a separate European defense force and so do I .

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It is time for American troops to stop defending German beer halls . It is time for Europe to step up to the plate and commit sufficient resources to defend itself instead of counting on American mercenaries while they fund their social nanny states .

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Very well said.

Thanks . It just amazes me . Germany destroyed it's own energy market and became wholly dependent on Russia's good will . We are expected to step up to the plate while at the same time Germany refuses to allow arms shipments to Ukraine to fly over German air space .

The Germans were furious with Clueless for putting Nord Stream 2 on the table . Frankly if it came down to America participating in war against Russia one of my 1st targets would be destroying Nord Stream and the pipeline that goes through Ukraine.

The Europeans really should be moving towards a preponderance of nuke power in addition to developing a real ability to defend themselves.

One other thing ;remember to Pottery Barn rule ....you break it you own it . Ukraine is about the size of Texas with a population of over 41 million people . I have no doubt that the Russian army is capable of defeating Ukraine's .Occupying and holding Kyiv, Kharkiv, or Odessa is another issue.

To put it in context we can understand .Iraq had a population of 26 million .We invaded with a force double the size Russia has brought to the field ;along with 60,000 Kurdish Peshmerga .

Sadam's army was defeated easily. Our occupation was another issue.

And the Russians are no where's close to the capability of our forces . 1968 . Russia occupied Czechoslovakia; a nation with no armed resistance , and only 14 million people with 250,000 troops and other Warsaw Pact troops that combined totaled 500,000 troops . And Russia's army today does not come close to where they were in 1968 When Russia went into Chechnya to brutally suppress a rebellion there ,they surged in 90,000 troops to control a territory with less than a million people .

Bottom line is that there are political gains that could easily be achieved through other means than invasion. The one unknown is if Putin is doing this as a legacy thingy. But if he opts to invade I believe it would be a big blunder and a huge risk. What is scary to me is that part of his calculation is he believes Clueless is weak .

Why would the US put out warnings of imminent invasion and then have Clueless take his weekly vacation away from the White House ? Why does the US put out the warnings and then Clueless takes no questions. Why would a critical phone call between Clueless and Putin be delayed until today if war is imminent? Was it past Clueless' bed time ?

The Russians need to think about the experience of the former Soviet Union in Afghanistan. They took the country without too much trouble. Holding it? That turned out to be a completely different matter.

Here is something for Putin to consider . There are NO western nations that covet Russian lands . But there is a nation on Russia's Pacific territory that very much covets Russian land . That would be China . Siberia is resource rich and I'm sure that Xi knows that if push came to shove Russia could not defend it .


Russia's economy is in the toilet . GDP is $1.5 trillion making them 1/14 the size of the US economy . Add in the economies of NATO and it is 1/25 the size . He has to gamble on a swift and decisive win. He cannot afford a prolonged war without Chinese help And for Russia to maintain any type of permanent presence in Ukraine they would need China to bankroll the adventure . That would come at a steep price .

I really think if he does this then Putin will have bitten off more than he can chew. Russia has yet to successfully integrate Crimea and the Donbas regions into greater Russia. There is still active fighting there .

Biden needs a war, to help with economy. Nothing new

Putin lifted the blockade of the Kersh Strait . That is a funny move for someone who is planning an invasion of Ukraine .

Clueless urged Americans to evacuate Ukraine . Then his State Dept issued a directive that says any American who wants to evacuate through Poland will need to show proof of vax first .

Message to U.S. Citizens: Poland/Ukraine Border Open to U.S. Citizens - U.S. Embassy in Ukraine (usembassy.gov)

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Originally Posted by tomder55

Putin lifted the blockade of the Kersh Strait . That is a funny move for someone who is planning an invasion of Ukraine .

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Well that's exactly what he did following the false flag playbook, in the shape of the separatist states and unsubstantiated claims of genocide...
Not that surprised really..

If the mission really was to support these states, as claimed, then why is the attack on multiple fronts advancing towards the capitol.

That is an easy question to answer. Russia did not launch a full scale invasion. The last time Ukraine was attacked for complete control of the nation ,Germany required substantially more than the 100-200 thousand troops Russia has committed to accomplish that . The Russian 3 prong attack is designed to destabilize the Ukraine government ;regime change is his preferred outcome ,AND to give the newly declared nations of Donetsk and Luhansk the means to clear out Ukraine resistance to the new states and to occupy the balance of the Donbas .Right now the 2 states control about a third of the region. Key is to occupy and control the territory along the Sea of Azov .This will give Russia a land bridge to Crimea.
Not so subtly, Clueless signaled to Putin that this was an acceptable outcome.He telegraphed that to Putin when he said that a limited attack would have less consequences .
It serves Clueless' purpose .Ukraine is now a November issue and by slapping meaningless sanctions ;he can claim to be the strong war time President who stood up to Russia . Here is the compliant press' cheerleading .

Biden wages first showdown of new Cold War-style duel with Russia (msn.com)


It oozes of cynicism.......Chamberlain at his best . The Clueless Presidency was a gift wrapped to Putin. He will never have another American President so weak in his time .
Putin gets what he wants which is to secure a buffer .He hopes that staves off his critics in the Duma and the rest of the state apparatus .

As for the west ;If Ukraine joins NATO as some nations still want ,then who knows how far this escalates ? For more than 2 decades Russia said Ukraine was a red line . Europe needed a leader like de Gaulle .He would've vetoed the fanciful notion that Ukraine could join NATO . He would've vetoed the very idea of NATO expanding east . He would've created a viable Western European defense independent of American dependency . It makes me laugh when Boris Johnson talks all tough while backing it up with 2 divisions of troops .

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Originally Posted by tomder55

That is an easy question to answer. Russia did not launch a full scale invasion. .

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Erm, Yes Russia did and they are advancing rapidly on the capital.

This isn't a 19th century Napoleonic game of capture the Capitol They are advancing on Kiev and will likely take it . That is not the object of their attack.Their objectives are limited and were summed up accurately by Clueless in a. moment of lucidity (his minor incursion comment) .


He will or may accomplish the regime change part of the plan Their ultimate aim is consolidating control of Donbas .They did not send enough force to take and control the whole country and frankly do not have the force to do so . Just as the US sent insufficient force to take and control Iraq .

Biden has, sensibly, made it clear that the USA will not deploy troops on the ground, thus escalating the crises.
While you wrongly believe that this is a 19th Century game, capturing the country's capital does mean game over even in modern warfare.
Interesting to note that one of Putin's aims was to stamp out Nazism, he is using page one of the Nazi blitzkrieg playbook.

Are you denying that much of the Ukraine militia fighting in Donbas is Nazis ?

Azov Battalion - Wikipedia

Right Sector - Wikipedia

Svoboda (political party) - Wikipedia

Ukrainian Nationalist Volunteers Committing 'ISIS-Style' War Crimes (newsweek.com)


Now of course Putin is propagandizing that . But his critique has an element of truth.


While you wrongly believe that this is a 19th Century game, capturing the country's capital does mean game over even in modern warfare

The US and allies captured Baghdad in 3 weeks . Then fought a war for more than a decade without pacifying the country . .The US and allies took Kabul early in the Afghan war. Then we left 20 years later with our tails between our legs .
The Soviets orchestrated a coup in Afghanistan in 1978 .They left with their tails between their legs a decade later .
Capturing the Capitol does not pacify the people .

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Originally Posted by tomder55

Are you denying that much of the Ukraine militia fighting in Donbas is Nazis ?

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Sounds like you are agreeing with Putin's reasoning for illegally invading a sovereign state....