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-   -   How to solve this probability? (https://www.askmehelpdesk.com/showthread.php?t=88736)

  • May 3, 2007, 06:10 AM
    Emland
    How to solve this probability?
    Okay - this isn't homework. I took statistics and let's just say although it wasn't pretty, I passed. My boss asked me to solve this probability question back when I was taking stats and I could never figure it out. He wants to know the probability for a bowling raffle he is in every year.

    There are 3 fishbowls.

    Inside each fishbowl there are 10 marbles.
    3 marbles are black
    7 marbles are white

    What is the probability that if you pull 4 marbles from each jar that you will get 9 black marbles?

    I told him about this site and that he might finally get an answer to this question that has been bugging him for a while. I hope someone knows!
  • May 3, 2007, 07:22 AM
    ebaines
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Emland
    Okay - this isn't homework. I took statistics and let's just say although it wasn't pretty, I passed. My boss asked me to solve this probability question back when I was taking stats and I could never figure it out. He wants to know the probability for a bowling raffle he is in every year.

    There are 3 fishbowls.

    Inside each fishbowl there are 10 marbles.
    3 marbles are black
    7 marbles are white

    What is the probability that if you pull 4 marbles from each jar that you will get 9 black marbles?

    I told him about this site and that he might finally get an answer to this question that has been bugging him for a while. I hope someone knows!

    To get 9 black marbles, you must pull 3 blacks plus 1 white from each bowl. No other combination of choices will work. So, if we can find the probability of pulling 3 blacks and 1 white from a bowl, we cube that to get the probablility of doing it 3 times in a row.

    The math is like this:

    P(3 blacks + 1 white) = (3*2*1*7)/(10*9*8*7) * 4 = 0.0333

    Note - the factor 4 is there because the white marble can show up in any one of the 4 picks.

    So the probability of doing this feat 3 times in a row is 0.0333 ^ 3 = 0.000037037, or 1 out of 27,000.
  • May 5, 2007, 05:28 PM
    BRD4life
    The one thing he failed to notice is the chance you could get 4 black marbles thus manking the proabailty slightly higher making it 0.001332:D :D :D
  • May 5, 2007, 05:30 PM
    Emland
    I don't understand BRD4life. There are only 3 black marbles per jar. How would you get 4 black marbles in one draw?
  • Mar 4, 2011, 06:17 AM
    anerd
    But u can pick a 3 black and 1 white marble from a jar,So as there are 3 jars u will have 9 black marbles with you.
    so probability to pick 3 black from a jar is 7/(10*3*7)
    so (1/30)*(1/30)(1/30) is the answer
  • Mar 4, 2011, 06:46 AM
    ebaines

    anerd - you do realize that this question is almost 4 years old, and the correct answer was provided in post #2. I guess it's a good thing that at least we agree on what that answer is.

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