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So the big IPO of Facebook was yesterday, and trading starts on the NASDAQ today. I'm curious whether people are going to buy or not? At $38/share that puts the company's valuation at $104 Billion, or over 100 times earnings. Will FB be able to sustain such a high valuation? I predict that the price will shoot up today as individuals jump in to buy a few shares just for fun, but in 3 months time the price will be below its initial offering price. What do you predict?
I agree, jump up, up and down over next 8 weeks or so, I say perhaps hold value within 20 percent for maybe 4 or 5 months but down about 40 to 50 percent by 6 months.
I may buy then.
Of course double in value in 6 months and I miss out like I did on Radio Shack back in the day.
Highly overrated but fashionable. No company is worth 100 times earnings particularly one with no assetsQuote:
Originally Posted by ebaines
I can't see a justification for this purchase. Big warning came from GM this week. They pulled their ads from FB because they determined it wasn't an effective way to advertise. FB relies on these ads.
Bottom line.. I come here for social media interaction . I am on FB because family members are there ;otherwise I wouldn't bother .
To those who are thinking about purchasing I have one final warning... remember My Space ?
Exactly. Remember AOL? That one didn't work out so great for investors (unless you got out at the height of the tech bubble).Quote:
Originally Posted by tomder55
It'll be another case of irrational exuberance, people will buy from emotion not from logical valuation. There will likely be an uptick for a while... until financial reports start trickling in.
Edit . Will private investors even be allowed at this party ? I have a feeling that the institutional traders will dominate the activity today.Quote:
Originally Posted by tomder55
Well if you purchased early enough ,you didn't lose anything.
Facebook Closes at $38.23, Nearly Flat on Day - NYTimes.com
But I think it got propped up by it's underwriters .
A fool and his money are soon parted and no more so than when you invest in overpriced stocks
Facebook is a fad like MSN Myspace etc. try carbon credit investments soon to raise by over 9% :)
Andrew carbon credits will be the mother of all bubbles... very comparible to the housing bubble because the market will be completely rigged by government mandate .
Carbon credits are risky but compared to buying shares in Facebook a common fad if you will, it's a great option, P.S I'm a financial Advisor :) living in the UK in which Carbon credits have already risen from 3.6 to 4.9% within a matter of 2 months. And with the high being roughly 17.6% it's a great option.
I hate to say I told you so, $38 a distant dream now Eh Tom?
Told you guys, Regulated carbon credits is where the money is :)
Clete ;I'll leave you to your fantasies that stimulus pump priming is the answer for the failed deficit ridden European socialist states (paid for by someone else of course) .
There is evidence that Morgan Stanley tipped off insiders to bail shortly after the IPO. That would be criminal activity on their part.
Just add it to the long list of capitalist illegal activities and stock market scams. There is hope for you yet Tom Google shows a profit, Linkedin shows a profit, so maybe farcebook will show a profit. No Tom I'm not interested in pump priming for the sake of it, I'll leave that to republican politicians but the PIGS economies could do with some serious investment, so rather than putting your industries in China, why don't you take a little less profit and put them there. I expect the europeans would even loan you the money to do it. The yanks are very good at spending OPM Tom and their policies came home to roost, it's time for you to pay the piper and put your money where your mouth is and help out your relativesQuote:
Originally Posted by tomder55
If there is evidence of criminal behavior then the people responsible should be frog marched. But tell me the logic behind a policy of screwing investors . If that is a standard business practice there would soon be no investors to play the game. So you're premise that this is standard capitalist practice is illogical and faulty .
Well I don't know Tom they seem to fall for it every time, but of course it is standard capitalist practice to screw whoever they can be it investors, customers, the public
Hello:
Here's what happened:
1st - corrupt bankers were picked to sell the stock.
2nd - corrupt bankers fill media with sales/corporate propaganda.
3rd - corrupt bankers make IPO unavailable to anyone but the rich.
4th - corrupted market claims "technical difficulties" for first 2 hours stock is traded.
5th - corrupt banks dump stock leaving customers/investors with huge losses.
6th - corrupt banks spread propaganda supposedly explaining what happened.
7th - corrupt financial professionals/economists/writers all invent more lies fitting their corrupt paradigm.
8th - corrupt politicians feign concern, collect more campaign money.
I think we need some financial regulation, don't you?
excon
If a person had some disposable funds, it was always a maybe, many high risk things either go broke, or make you rich. I don't even want to discuss Gold futures in the 1980's.
Or Munsingwear stock in the 90's.
No Ex there is no reason at all to regulate against the possibility of making a bad bet.
You could see from a thousand miles away that Facebook was selling nothing .
What I want to understand is why Jerry Brown was so stupid as to think this IPO was going to bail out his sorry State .
Facebook IPO Could Mean up to $2.1B for Calif. - ABC News
Now maybe he can go back to making the hard decisions to reign in out of control spending by a state beholden to the states public unions.
I think I have been saying that for a long time but Ex with all that corruption around you need somethong more, you need a good cleanout of the banking, hedging and stock market industries. Its still the same people who gave you the GFC they haven't changed.Quote:
Originally Posted by excon
You remember the definition of madness don't you? Keep doing the same things and expect things to change, well it works the same with people, keep employing the same people and expect things to change?
What is madness is this belief in"too big to fail . Facebook got so big that it's IPO was too big to fail . JPM is too big to fail so everyone goes into a panic when they make some losing trades (even though if the lost a couple $ billion ,others gained a couple $billion) .
Moral hazard... When there isn't this notion that big daddy government isn't there to pull your butt out of the fire every time there is a loss ,then reckless moves will be minimized.
Tom Farcebook will fail because it is a whim the kids think it is great until the next thing comes along but the internet revenue is based on click through and the kids just click on each other. I have used farcebook and it is a very poor imitation of reality, of SMS even, and just recently the big ego of Farcebook decided to wipe out all the existing pages so participants could recreate them, a marvelous piece of marketing no doubt conceived in a haze
Facebook provides a service .But it can't figure out how to monitize the serivice. The participants would abandon it if they tried to set up a fee for service. The recent move by GM illustrates your point ,that the participants ignore the advertising ;and the participants go into snits when they find out that FB wants to share their info for marketing purposes.
This IPO was a quick fix for the principals to get rich ,
The investor class should 've seen this coming since it is just a repeat of the late 1990s tech stock bubble .
So what are we going to do then... outlaw IPOs ? I think part of the reason that the economy has been so sluggish is because there haven't been enough IPO's . Instead ,new companies remain private until they can convince Google to buy them out. An IPO makes these startups think long term.
Hello tom:Quote:
Originally Posted by tomder55
IPO's are fine... Crooked IPO's aren't.
excon
Tom you have to understand the service it is a reinvention of the net and email appealing to those who want to be in constant contact with someoneelse. It has little advertising value unless you are on the exact wavelength of the particular poster.Quote:
Originally Posted by tomder55
The IPO should have had a much lower value based on recent revenue forecasts but the essential information was withheld from all but a few, this constitutes insider trading so lets's not have an over reaction but a suggestion that the regulator GOYA and be proactive
If there was insider trading then laws already in place cover it. But who's to say that those who buy and hold won't be the winners in the end... you can't and I can't .
The finger pointing to corruption are specuation at best ;and again ,the laws on the books already cover it.
Investors win and lose every day in the market . Regulate against that and you will destroy the market.
Yes Tom investor win and lose but the idea that a few should win while the rest lose is the question. In this case this indicates conspiracy and as you say laws cover this contingency but it will be someone with big losses who will initiate the case, the little people can't afford to.
As to winners in the long run, remember the tech bubble, where are those winners now? Probably burned by the Zuck
The tech bubble was what was called irrational exuberance. That ;as Fr Chuck points out is easily as old as the Dutch tulip trades ;and in fact as old as when Thales of Miletus cornered the market in olive-oil presses.
If the market was was rigged as you think it is then no one would play in it . Geeze you think everyone is an idiot waiting for their sheering like sheep !
No Tom they are just waiting to be Zucked or is that Zuckered.Quote:
Originally Posted by tomder55
There are a lot of problems in the market Tom caused by irrational behaviour and perhaps false information. For example I have a stock which has strong local and offshore investments in energy today it stands at 25% of its value a few months ago, the market has fallen 10% and no adverse reports have been made, I have another which is a developer of medical products despite several announcements of new and innovative products its value remains static and yet you say we should tolerate a straight out scam. I find that incomprehensible
If you don't trust your stocks then get out. Many people did after the flash crash and have not returned. Oh they trust the biggest con artist of them all instead... the US government and they invest in little valued US bonds. The government fleeces them everyday with manipulations and not a word is said about corruption or rigging the market.
Tom you cannot talk about rigging the market and then say there should be no regulation a properly regulated market cannot be rigged by the government either
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