Ask Me Help Desk - The "uncertainty" word

The "uncertainty" word

Hello right wingers:

I KNEW it... You SAID if we don't give the richest amongst us a tax break, it'll create "uncertainty", and THAT'S why they won't spend all that money they've been sitting on to create jobs... So, what did the Democrats do?? They believed you and gave those rich snobs a tax break... I suppose they were thinking that they took care of "uncertainty"...

But, noooooo.. Who would have guessed?? Boehner, on Meet the Press this morning, said the lack of spending cuts is now causing "uncertainty". Looks to me, like you found a new "death panel" word. I'll betcha Frank Luntz has something to do with it.

excon

Corporations with money weren't uncertain. They were too busy snapping up cheap companies instead of hiring and expanding their own. That makes sense with blinders on; who can resist a bargain? Who cares if it's irresponsible and short sighted.

The general understanding is that we can't keep spending at current levels. So yes it creates uncertainty if there are not cuts in the budget. This type of sustained spending will bankrupt the whole country. As far as the jobs that were cut so far industry is having a dificult time in hiring new as the jobs have broadened. That in part is why they haven't rehired those that got laid off. There is also a portion that were considered dead wood and those won't be getting any offers at all.

It's a changing world we live in. Lets just hope we can live through it. Look at (atleast in my area) how man cash for gold places have popped up in a very short time. Its getting crazy.

Quote:

Originally Posted by califdadof3

The general understanding is that we can't keep spending at current levels. So yes it creates uncertainty if there are not cuts in the budget.

Hello dad:

Uhhhhh, no - or at least not the way you, and the Republicans are saying it...

I AM a businessman. Have been for over 30 years. There has NEVER been a sustained period of "certainty" during my lifetime... Taxes go up. Taxes go down. Regulations go up. Regulations go down. That is the nature of the business environment. If I waited for "certainty", I'd NEVER have gone into business. NONE of my business decisions have anything to do with what government is doing. Let me repeat that. I never made a business decision based on how much taxes I'd owe IF I made money. Suffice to say, I made my decisions in SPITE of "uncertainty". My decisions were based on market demands. On whether I could SELL more if I PRODUCED more. I never hired a person because of "certainty". I hired people because I NEEDED them to produce for me.

So, I don't buy that businessmen are sitting on the sidelines waiting for "certainty" to prevail before they try make money... That just isn't what businessmen do.

Now, I don't disagree with you about spending and how we need to reign it in. But, to say that our unemployment is tied to spending just isn't so. The word "uncertainty" IS tied to a Republican agenda, though.

excon

I was mostly trying to address the "spending" part of your question that is tied to uncertainty. Lets face it should this country go bust which we are closer to then ever before. It will be harder to rebuild if your stretched then if you're a fat cat. Who knows maybe they all are buying gold ;)

And Im sure in bisiness like most people you watch the trends and how they are driven. Trends like we are having now with gasoline. So if the government announced they are going to tax it at $3.00 a gallon you would have to adjust accordingly. Business runs on fuel.

Its upsidedown right now in that we have an actual excess of gas and the price is going up from sheer greed.

I can't speak to the spending impact .I imagine that has something to do with available credit. If the government is monopolizing the currency to build and fund the debt then there is less currency available for capital investment .

However, I know for a fact that many businesses bail out because they can't afford to comply with growing regulations.

That is what causes the opportunity for larger companies ,that can afford to comply ,to buy out the smaller ones .That in return consolidates the industries into fewer hands ,and creates the so called 'too big to fail' business .

The Labor Department said employers advertised nearly 3.1 million jobs in December, a drop of almost 140,000 from November and the second straight monthly decline.

Interested to hear other explanations ,other than uncertainty ,why businesses in the midst of a so called recovery are not hiring .

Quote:

Originally Posted by tomder55

why businesses in the midst of a so called recovery are not hiring .

Yes, where is that money going?

Are the states and banks still holding tight to the recovery money they were given to create jobs and new mortgages/prevent foreclosures?

Quote:

Originally Posted by tomder55

However, I know for a fact that many businesses bail out because they can't afford to comply with growing regulations.

Hello again, tom:

Nahhh... Companies go bankrupt for MANY reasons, bad management being the most prevalent... Do I expect a bad manager who lost his company to say it went down because of HIM?? Uhhh, no I don't. Do I expect him to blame OTHER stuff, like too many regulations?? Uhhh, I DO.

Quote:

Originally Posted by tomder55

Interested to hear other explanations ,other than uncertainty ,why businesses in the midst of a so called recovery are not hiring .

Businessmen hire for one reason, and one reason only - that's to produce more to meet market demands. If he THINKS he can sell more, but HESITATES because of "uncertainty" about government, his competitor will NOT hesitate, and he'll be BURIED. Will he blame being buried on "uncertainty"?? He sure will.

For a right wing fellow who purports to be a capitalist, you don't understand business very well.

excon

WG I think that's exacty the case. What was supposed to go into socialist funded work 'shovel ready ' projects ,instead States included it into their general funds to pay ever expanding and unsustainable public employee benefits.
But this is not unusual . Better to let the people keep their money and create the demand that Excon addresses and caters to.

Ex ,being in an industry that is being heavily impacted by new regulations I can tell you for a fact that many of the smaller businesses CANNOT operate profitably under the new rules. They are selling out for the best money they can . They don't get hurt. Their employees do.

Quote:

Originally Posted by tomder55

States included it into their general funds to pay ever expanding and unsustainable public employee benefits.

Um, can you document that?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wondergirl

Yes, where is that money going?

Hello Carol:

There IS no money. Well, there is, but it's not being held because of "uncertainty". If you listen to the Republicans, all we have to do is repeal every regulation there ever was, and it would unleash this torrent of cash and we'll be singing happy days are here again...

But, the companies holding piles of cash aren't the industrial giants of before, ready to hire the masses if only, say, Obamacare were repealed... Nope. They're companies like Apple, Microsoft and Google - and they've got all the help they need, thank you very much...

Those other jobs are NEVER coming back - NEVER. Oh, yeah - Walmart is hiring.

excon

Here a just a few of the examples. Most states followed that template.

State budget plan shuffles money, uses stimulus funds to cover $262 million gap - The Denver Post

Stimulus money may only delay inevitable cuts for West Virginia - The Herald Dispatch

Quote:

An 8 percent increase may seem exorbitant, even in post-recessionary times, but it doesn't account for the $1.3 billion in federal stimulus money that temporarily inflated the 2009-11 budget. That money has gone away. If you add the stimulus spending to the equation, Kitzhaber's spending proposal is essentially flat-lined.

Gov. John Kitzhaber says his budget would put Oregon on stable financial footing | OregonLive.com

As stimulus money dries up, budget cuts loom in school district

Expect lots of government layoffs at state, local level - USATODAY.com

Quote:

Originally Posted by tomder55

Ex ,being in an industry that is being heavily impacted by new regulations I can tell you for a fact that many of the smaller businesses CANNOT operate profitably under the new rules.

Hello again, tom:

I understand that's what they SAY when they don't know how to INNOVATE, so that their product BECOMES profitable under the prevailing conditions... Successful businessmen are agile. Unsuccessful businessmen look for somebody to blame...

You DO understand, don't you, that NEW regulations have been coming forth since I opened my FIRST business, and they've NEVER stopped? If what you're saying is that business stalls when new regulations are issued, we'd have been out of business long ago... THAT didn't happen. If somebody in my industry can make money in an environment rife with regulations, then I can too - and did.

excon

I'm saying that it's not worth their efforts if they can find a buyer or just bail out and put their money into a business that is profitable but with much less aggrevation.
Bottom line is the same... less competition .

Try being a startup in a heavy regulated industry that requires overhead not related to the making of the product and only satisfies some Congress person's vision of how the industry should run. Where is that capital investment coming from ?

Quote:

Originally Posted by tomder55

I'm saying that it's not worth their efforts if they can find a buyer or just bail out and put their money into a business that is profitable but with much less aggrevation. Bottom line is the same ....less competition .

Hello again, tom:

I wholeheartedly agree. They put their money into a profitable business. Said another way, they innovate. They DO things. Their money goes SOMEWHERE. It does NOT sit because of "uncertainty".

excon

And that could mean in the purchase of non-job creating investments... like dare I say ,purchasing gold.

Quote:

Originally Posted by tomder55

and that could mean in the purchase of non-job creating investments......like dare I say ,purchasing gold.

Hello again, tom:

You may, daresay. That's probably why gold jumped today. The point is, capital is NOT stagnant. It moves around seeking the best return. It doesn't wait till "uncertainty" is resolved.

excon

Buying gold is the definition of uncertainty . Buying gold may provide jobs for miners in South Africa... not so much here.

Quote:

Originally Posted by tomder55

buying gold is the definition of uncertainty . Buying gold may provide jobs for miners in South Africa.....not so much here.

Hello again, tom:

I didn't say there wasn't "uncertainty". I also didn't say anything about a bunch of jobs waiting to be unleashed WHEN "uncertainty" turns into "certainty". You did.

excon

Begone troll . I smite you

There is no uncertainty, big business is just waiting for the repubs to do the job they are getting paid for. Destroy the middle class, drive wages down to minimum, and defund everything that stops them from controlling all the markets and your money.

Expect more "trickle down economics". Everybody knows the way to create demand is to circulate more money. Big business isn't doing that. Government tries, but its not enough. Big business won't help, because they are paying repubs to eliminate all the rules and safeguards for people caught up in their mistakes. Like oil spills, contaminated drinking water that can be ignited, clean air technology (even though its tax deductible), and how about corporate welfare that oil companies enjoy? No we can't touch that, but we can take money from teachers and school districts to close budget deficits of states caused by give aways to companies that don't create jobs, just profits.

That's what they want, you to be uncertain, so they get their agenda through. They are certain as to what they are doing for sure, and repubs are trying their best to do what they are paid to do, by their corporate masters, but we won't know until November 7th, 2012, whether they are successful. Then all the uncertainty will be gone. The class war will be over.