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-   -   "ISIL" v. "ISIS" (https://www.askmehelpdesk.com/showthread.php?t=803069)

  • Nov 18, 2014, 02:36 PM
    paraclete
    The franchise expands
    You have to wonder, are we watching a militant group, or a criminal business. Whatever might be happening it is apparent that ISIS fighters have an ability to move freely from country to country. Libya is now under threat from ISIS in a well organised move as fighters return from Syria. This is the west's worst nightmare, that the fighting is not contained to Syria and Iraq

    ISIS comes to Libya - CNN.com

    There is, perhaps, one advantage the west can exploit the fighters in Libya are much more accessible than those in Syria
  • Nov 18, 2014, 06:15 PM
    tomder55
    and we haven't even mentioned the failed state of Yemen ;and it's strategic local.
  • Nov 18, 2014, 06:39 PM
    paraclete
    Yes Tom the fight has been going on in Yemen for quite a while, not sure if ISIS is involved there but AQAP and the US certainly is. I'm sure the Saudi keep a close eye on Yemen and let's not forget Al Shabbab is almost destroyed in Somalia, their fighters have to go somewhere
  • Nov 19, 2014, 03:05 AM
    tomder55
    the problem is that just like in Syria ,Yemen is a proxy war between radical jihadistan Sunni and radical jihadistan Shia . It appears to me that the emperor is closer than ever for formalizing a rapprochement with the 12ers in Tehran aka radical jihadistan Shia. The cost of this will be recognition of the Iranian nuke and hegemony . We are already assisting them towards those dual goals.
  • Nov 19, 2014, 05:51 AM
    paraclete
    Candidly tom I don't think they are the threat you think them to be. Sure they have a low opinion of your foreign policy, but then who doesn't, and they have been on the receiving end of it more than most, and survived, but it is time to bring them in from the cold before they become even more comfortable with Russia who has no qualms about their nuclear program. Russia is exploiting them and you don't want that to happen because the threat was always Russia.

    You can't get anywhere in the UN with Russia on the security council so you have to develop coalitions to deal with problems. One way of dealing with ISIS is to unleash Iran and accept that Iraq is lost to you anyway. It was always going to be so. Assard is even starting to look like the lesser of two evils
  • Nov 19, 2014, 11:50 AM
    tomder55
    Quote:

    I don't think they are the threat you think them to be
    they won't be if the 12ers are ever overthrown. But so long as they are still in power ,then they are apocalyptic ideologues who will soon have nukes and missiles that can deliver them in the region. It is fortunate that we now will have a Senate that will take down any deal that emperor Neville negotiates with them.

    We have fumbled our relations with Russia poisoning the well when both of us have a mutual interest in containing jihadistan. But nothing better showcases the emperor's confusion over foreign policy than this screwy idea that as part of a nuclear deal ,Iran would ship enriched uranium to Russia, and Russia would then process it for 'Iranian civilian usage'. How stupid do they think we are ? And do you REALLY think that they can act as responsible neighbors in the region ? They have never shown that in the past. Instead they have been one of the leading state sponsors of terrorism. What you will have is a rogue terror sponsoring nation with the world's most potent weapon. Oh no doubt one of their proxies will deliver the coup de grace allowing them deniability .
  • Nov 19, 2014, 11:57 AM
    talaniman
    So we should nuke Iran, then nuke Russia? Nice plan!
  • Nov 19, 2014, 12:08 PM
    tomder55
    don't worry ,I'm sure the plan is to drop sanctions on both Russia and Iran and then sing Kum bya while roasting smores by an open fire.
  • Nov 19, 2014, 01:14 PM
    NeedKarma
    Like you did(doing) with Cuba?
  • Nov 19, 2014, 01:23 PM
    paraclete
    Quote:

    What you will have is a rogue terror sponsoring nation with the world's most potent weapon.
    A little like your friends in Pakistan? No wait, they were fighting your enemies so they are OK. I think you have been well trained by the Israeli's to assume that the enemy of my friend is my enemy and this is preventing progress
  • Nov 19, 2014, 08:34 PM
    tomder55
    blaming the Jews again ?
  • Nov 20, 2014, 04:55 AM
    paraclete
    A reference to Israel is not blaming the jews. There is no doubt there is a strong lobby favouring Israel in your nation. No I'm not blaming them but if the Iran thing is ever going to be solved the question of Israel is in the pot, it is a much greater barrier than nuclear energy. I could see a trade off, very logical. You recognise Israel and you can have your nuclear program.

    We also have the Palestinian problem, Hamas is like the early PLO, which is now Fatah, only nastier and I see no early solutions to that problem and demolishing houses doesn't help. The Arabs don't want them and nor does Israel and that is the elephant in the room. I could see Israel coexisting with the west bank, that wall has done wonders for calming relations, but you couldn't build one deep enough or high enough in Gaza
  • Nov 26, 2014, 07:43 PM
    paraclete
    ISIS is getting a pounding and suddenly the media has gone quiet. I expect success isn't as important as carnage
  • Nov 27, 2014, 03:45 AM
    tomder55
    People are getting bored by their gruesome videos . They worked initially in their recruitment drive ;and hid one of their great weaknesses. They can't operate as a "state " . Their standing army is still a terrorist group and more important ;they can't provide the services a state is required to provide. They can take territory by massing their troops (making them easier targets to the air campaign) ;but they have maxed out in their ability to hold and govern the territory they seize .

    We can give a big hat tip to the boots on the ground. The Iraqi Army has made a come back after it's initial defeats ;and even more important ,the Kurdish Peshmerga has taken the fight to them in Syria . When will the west realize that the Kurds are our natural ally in the region and have earned our support ?
  • Nov 27, 2014, 06:06 AM
    paraclete
    Yes Tom but it is not convenient to recognise the Kurds, it will upset both Turkey and Iraq whose Kurdish populations have nationalistic aspirations and old enemies. If you recognise the Kurds you cast Iraq adrift into the Iranian sea. Now I know that realistically Iraq is lost to Iran anyway, it is logical that the shiite population would want to forge those ties
  • Nov 27, 2014, 06:54 AM
    talaniman
    They had those ties before they discovered oil, so a reversion is only natural.
  • Nov 27, 2014, 09:10 PM
    paraclete
    Yes, in tribal societies traditional ties are of more value than fair weather friends
  • Nov 28, 2014, 03:15 AM
    tomder55
    When I examine the actors in the region and ask 'who do you trust ' ? The Kurds top the list over the Persians and the Ottomans . Iraq I believe will not be able to maintain nationhood . Had we made a long term commitment to them there would've been a chance. But since it appears that the borders forged by Sykes–Picot Agreement are being erased by the Islamic State (and I believe these changes are permanent even if the Islamic State fails in the long run) ; the question is what will the new Levant look like ...and will the west play a part in shaping it ?

    The emergence of the Islamic State has proven the fallacy of the emperor's fantasies of a US withdrawal from the region (and other nations like Russia and China have proven his ideas of withdrawing from the world naďve) .Like it or not ,the Islamic State forces us to again play a role in the region .

    Unfortunately the emperor has determined that his quickest out is to defer to Tehran. You see it is having dire consequences in the nuclear negotiations where he has allowed a deadline (redline ) to pass again while their centrifuges continue to spin. In exchange for them taking a role as the hegemon ,he has all but conceded the Persian
    bomb.
    Ankara has proven to be a feckless and unreliable ally . They did nothing while the border town of Kobani was relentlessly pressed by the Islamic State .If I didn't know better I would think they were working in alliance with the Islamic State . More likely is that they are bullies inside their own nation to ethnic minorities like the Kurds ,but do not want their military to demonstrate their worth outside their borders . That means their desire to restore the Ottoman control is all bluster .
    The Saudi's in the meantime have proven their vulnerabilities . They are nothing more than a bankroll. They are fearful of the Iranian emergence .They are fearful that the Islamic State will turn it's attention their way . They are now vulnerable because despite the anti-oil and gas administration in Washington ,the US is plowing ahead making itself and the world free of dependence on Saudi light crude.

    The power the west has committed to the fight against the Islamic State is probably enough to end their territorial ambition. But it is the Kurdish "boots on the ground " that will end them being a significant threat. For that they should be rewarded and not betrayed .......AGAIN !
  • Nov 28, 2014, 06:02 AM
    paraclete
    Tom I think Turkey is a dishonest broker in this and they see the opportunities afforded by a weakened Syria. They only have to wait and walk in over the ashes, so why expend their forces fighting people who are doing their work for them and what could be better than allowing the kurds to crush ISIS then they crush the Kurds and end the potential for rebellion. When have you known a muslim to be brave when he doesn't have to be? The saudi's will get their just desserts, their wahabbiism will back fire in their face. The US needs to look to the threat possed by Russia and China and ignore Iraq and let the Iraqi fight for themselves, they started this mess. Assard has gotten the message and gone on the offensive against ISIS. He must show himself to be strong now
  • Nov 28, 2014, 06:59 AM
    tomder55
    We don't have to restrict ourselves to 1 or 2 interests in the world disregarding the rest . We have multiple interests and responsibilities . We cannot lead from behind as the emperor would chose. We have seen no nation ,or group of nations ,or international organizations that can fill the void.
  • Nov 28, 2014, 02:47 PM
    paraclete
    If there is a void it is created by you and Putin is quick to be attempting to fill it. You are the self appointed policeman of the world and it is a role that no one wants you in. The UN was long ago set up deal with international disputes but it has been emascalated by the false notion that if someone says no then nothing can be done. You have taken on the role of gathering armies to fight the battles but you don't fight all battles just those that suit you and that gives the lie to what you just said "We cannot lead from behind". Step back, let someoneelse take to lead before you implode
  • Nov 28, 2014, 05:36 PM
    tomder55
    bipolar ,multipolar worlds and international institutions have proven to be unsuitable in conflict resolution.
    Quote:

    Step back, let someoneelse take to lead before you implode
    which nation do you have in mind ?
  • Nov 29, 2014, 02:45 PM
    paraclete
    Does there have to be a specific nation? The US feels the weight of history too strongly, Britain learned to live without empire and the policeman role. France took action in certain parts of Africa recently but it isn't trying to police the world. Australia took action in East Timor and in the pacific, but it isn't trying to police the world, Countries in Africa are taking action in Somalia, but they are not trying to police the world. Just because the "great nations" have made the UN impotent does't mean we need the US specifically to resolve disputes. I think local intervention is a better model when those appointed to act can't act
  • Nov 30, 2014, 02:19 AM
    paraclete
    Evidence of Turkey as a dishonest broker in this crisis

    Activists: ISIS Is Now Launching Attacks From Inside Turkey - The Atlantic
  • Nov 30, 2014, 02:45 AM
    tomder55
    Quote:

    Does there have to be a specific nation?
    I think so . History has shown that multi-polarity is more unstable and war prone than bipolarity or unipolarity.The last time we had multi-polar security arrangements was prior to the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand . Change 1914 to 2014, and Sarajevo to Donetsk,or the Senkaku Islands or the Spratlys .As we see in the Syrian Civil War ,conflicts do not remain local. Prior to WWI there were 2 local Balkan wars .The decline of super powers brings the emergence of vacuums. Both Balkan wars were the direct result of the decline of the regional super power ,the Ottomans. WWI started as the third Balkan War. The balance of power and the system of alliances turned the assassination into a world war. New alliances and the multilateral League of Nations could do nothing to prevent WWII .
  • Nov 30, 2014, 05:10 AM
    paraclete
    Hmmm! Tom, I know you like to live in the past and you yearn for past glories, but the world can do without your brand of intervention. Grand high opera for the masses at home. Can you hear the Mikado playing? What has Iraq brought us? Nothing but years of on going war in a destabilised middle east. What has Afghanistan brought us? Nothing but destabilisation, you can't even win the wars you start effectively and you want us to give you licence for more of the same. I am not interested in some petti-fogging baltic war a hunded years ago and the Turks are playing you for fools right now. What you are saying is we have learned nothing and the reality is you have learned nothing
  • Nov 30, 2014, 05:49 AM
    talaniman
    BBC News - Kurds protest against Turkey as IS advances on Kobane

    Turkey has its own problems,

    2013–14 protests in Turkey - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
  • Nov 30, 2014, 06:50 AM
    tomder55
    I see nothing that has changed from the lessons of the past . You utopian visions of an international body that mediates world conflicts has twice failed. Dreamers like you more than a century ago would meet near here at Lake Mohonk and plan their vision of the perfect world .
    Lake Mohonk Conference on International Arbitration - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    The world will lament the end of Pax Americana. Good luck having China guarantee safe passage of commerce to and from your Island continent .
  • Nov 30, 2014, 02:15 PM
    paraclete
    Tom I don't dream of a world government or a world body that is all things to all people. That is a utopian view and it is what the UN has become. Putting that aside for the moment the UN was established by international treaty on one of the premises was that decisions on international security would be made by a centralised decision making process to avoid the sort of conflagrations they had just experienced, however, despite regional conflicts it could be said to have had some measure of success. You and I know the process is flawed by the veto and therefore I hasn't been allowed to operate fully
  • Dec 4, 2014, 07:55 AM
    tomder55
    Our Unstable World Foretells Of A Large War Looming On Horizon - Investors.com
  • Dec 4, 2014, 07:58 AM
    NeedKarma
    You must be excited by the prospect of war.
  • Dec 4, 2014, 11:27 AM
    tomder55
    no ,it's what I feared would happen when we elected a pusillanimous POTUS.
  • Dec 4, 2014, 11:42 AM
    NeedKarma
    Funny there was lots of war during 8 years of republican rule. You were even attacked on your soil.
  • Dec 4, 2014, 01:35 PM
    paraclete
    Karma, Shussss! You don't want to awaken Tom to reality. Appearently he is wishing that the president would have prosecuted their wars with full vigour and restored their place in the world as the superpower of superpowers
  • Dec 11, 2014, 01:59 PM
    paraclete
    Some good news from the war front, apparently foreign militants are dying as quickly as they enter the conflict so their numbers remain the same so we don't need to worry about them coming back and creating a home grown jihad but recent disclosures on US torture have stirred up those who previously suffered at their hands perhaps fuelling a fresh flush of militants
  • Dec 11, 2014, 02:47 PM
    tomder55
    yeah much better to give no quarter and drone them with a hell fire. Then we don't have to worry about their treatment or their housing .
  • Dec 12, 2014, 12:56 AM
    paraclete
    Yes Tom the spirit of Cheney lingers wonder who he will shoot next
  • Dec 12, 2014, 08:54 AM
    tomder55
    it is all a bunch of political nonsense by Dianne FrankenFeinstein. She's having a hissy fit because the CIA tapped into her Intel Committees's computers. So she is playing scorced earth before her term as committee chair is over . Her report would've been just a little more credible if she actually called in some former CIA chiefs in to testify.
    We will go back to the days of the Church Committee and the Torricelli Principle where our Intel Agencies hands were so tied that they had absolutely no valuable intel on AQ before the attack .
  • Dec 12, 2014, 09:01 AM
    talaniman
    LOL, if she hadn't raised the issue the repubs would have buried it when they took over the government in January.
  • Dec 12, 2014, 09:19 AM
    tomder55
    aren't you glad you live under the security umbrella that the agency and the military provides ?
    "Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf." (George Orwell 'Notes on Nationalism')


    The truth is that she and ALL the Democrat leadership were briefed on exactly what was happening at the detention sites ,and they were all on board with it when there was no actionable intel on AQ ....and the smoke from the attacks still hovered over Manhattan ... and there was a lone wolf sniper picking off people in DC ... and there were anthrax attacks on Congressional leaders.;and no one knew if and when the next attack would take place .

    So the only thing that makes sense is that they desperately hope to revise the 'blame it on Bush' strategy going into 2016.

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