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Folks go where they get to hear what they want to hear I suppose.

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Sadly true. A desire to simply hear the truth is what is needed.

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Originally Posted by jlisenbe

Dr. Birx's comments were really interesting. If the attack ratio of the virus is actually 1/1,000, then it would seem we have over-reacted significantly.

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You cannot take any numbers as accurate when testing is rationed. I think all the experts have made that point. No telling how many people that 1/1000 have infected that don't get tested. That should be very concerning going forward.

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Originally Posted by jlisenbe

Sadly true. A desire to simply hear the truth is what is needed.

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Less dufus and a lot more doctors.

So you don't want to listen to Trump, and now you don't want to listen to an expert despite your call for "a lot more doctors". I guess the famous scientist Rachel Maddow must not agree with that figure.

What was fascinating was the group in the UK who had predicted 500,000 deaths in their country just a few weeks ago have not reduced that figure to 20,000. Hard to see how they could have missed it by that much. It was probably the panic factor.

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Originally Posted by jlisenbe

So you don't want to listen to Trump, and now you don't want to listen to an expert. I guess the famous scientist Rachel Maddow must not agree with that figure.

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What part of a lot more doctors/health experts is it you don't get? I make no mention of the liberal talking heads and their opinions and listen to the way the doctors and experts answer questions and what questions they answer.

Then why aren't you listening to Dr. Birx's comments? She is the one who commented on the 1/1,000 attack rate.

The 500,000 deaths being "downgraded" to fewer than 20,000 is fascinating. It just goes to show how easily science can get it wrong, especially early on when the data is sparse.

https://www.gopusa.com/u-k-scientist...-figure-20000/

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Originally Posted by jlisenbe

Then why aren't you listening to Dr. Birx's comments? She is the one who commented on the 1/1,000 attack rate.

The 500,000 deaths being "downgraded" to fewer than 20,000 is fascinating. It just goes to show how easily science can get it wrong, especially early on when the data is sparse.

https://www.gopusa.com/u-k-scientist...-figure-20000/

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That's certainly the case with ONE UK scientist, but as to Dr. Birx's comments, There are plenty of caveats that make her words preliminary.

"I'm going to say something that is a little bit complicated but do it in a way we can understand it together. In the model, either you have to have a large group of people who [are] a-asymptomatic, who never presented for any test to have the kind of numbers predicted. To get to 60 million people infected, you have to have a large group of a-symptomatics. We have not seen an attack rate over 1 in 1,000. So either we are measuring the iceberg and underneath it, are a large group of people. So we are working hard to get the antibody test and figure out who these people are and do they exist. Or we have the transmission completely wrong

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What was fascinating was the group in the UK who had predicted 500,000 deaths in their country just a few weeks ago have not reduced that figure to 20,000. Hard to see how they could have missed it by that much. It was probably the panic factor.

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Just like climate "scientists " the Imperial College group created for themselves a vested interest in the outcome of their model .

Yes but even without the mass testing the numbers are going downward . When you expand the denominator then you may find that there is a greater threat to the population by keeping to business as normal during the flu season.

This ain't the flu though, and we cannot treat it a such. I refer you to J_9's very good thread on the subject.

I did not say they were the same . But the reality is that the flu affects all age groups ;returns annually ,kills 50,000-80,000 annually in this country .AND mutates so there is no guarantee that the annual flu shot will even be effective .Still we do not shut the country down for it . Don't have all the data in on this yet so I can't make sweeping statements about it . However ,it does appear to be much more deadly to a specific risk group than the rest of the population at large . Guidelines can be established to protect them the best we can . Then hopefully this one does not mutate in any significant way ,and the rest of the population can establish herd immunity .

Bottom line . you keep on saying it is a medical call. But ultimately public policy is a political call..... Made by leaders doing risk assessment .

Lack of testing has slowed the crucial data of which you speak Tom, and without it, we are blind, so an abundance of caution seems reasonable even though the disruption to the economy is scary as hell to everybody including those without resources in the first place. Just look at the countries and even our own states and localities that are slow to shut things down and implement restrictions and watch them become new hotspots. Heck all the big cities have become hotspots.

But the point remains the same. For the person who has the virus and yet is asymptomatic, the result is the same as not even having it other than they produce antibodies that give resistance to a future infection. It seems to be that, in terms of truly serious cases, the 1/1,000 attack rate is probably accurate. I guess we'll see in the next few weeks. I just wonder what all the libs are going to do if we can all go to church on Easter.

Well this is what the libs have asked for all along. They dont mind giving up rights over a little virus.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...seeking-refuge

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Originally Posted by jlisenbe

But the point remains the same. For the person who has the virus and yet is asymptomatic, the result is the same as not even having it other than they produce antibodies that give resistance to a future infection. It seems to be that, in terms of truly serious cases, the 1/1,000 attack rate is probably accurate. I guess we'll see in the next few weeks. I just wonder what all the libs are going to do if we can all go to church on Easter.

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The a symptomatic can spread to others unknowingly, and if your church is open and you attend while irresponsible in my opinion, that's up to you but you should look up what happened in SKorea regarding those religious decisions before you take that action.

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Originally Posted by cdad

Well this is what the libs have asked for all along. They dont mind giving up rights over a little virus.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...seeking-refuge

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Rather extreme in my view. I guess crazy is not just restricted to conservatives.

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The a symptomatic can spread to others unknowingly, and if your church is open and you attend while irresponsible in my opinion, that's up to you but you should look up what happened in SKorea regarding those religious decisions before you take that action.

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Unless, of course, the disease is trending downwards by then, but that's a fair statement.

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Originally Posted by jlisenbe

Unless, of course, the disease is trending downwards by then, but that's a fair statement.

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Hope for the best but plan for the worst. A few local churches will be broadcasting services.

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Originally Posted by talaniman

Hope for the best but plan for the worst. A few local churches will be broadcasting services.

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Yes definitely the trend, my local church was an early adopter since church gatherings are banned but now with gatherings of more than two banned even that will be difficult

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Originally Posted by paraclete

Yes definitely the trend, my local church was an early adopter since church gatherings are banned but now with gatherings of more than two banned even that will be difficult

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Maybe it's good that preachers have found the internet.

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Originally Posted by talaniman

Maybe it's good that preachers have found the internet.

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Preachers found the internet long ago, do you need to be reminded that both the good and the bad use the internet

You won't need an Easter bonnet this year. Heck you can attend services in your PJ's if the spirit so moves you.

If the spirit moves me, I'll be in my lounge room