Obviously here we have another United Nations fiasco, the war that never ends. BUT seriously, what should we do about the situation in Korea. On the one hand we have a petulent child who can't play nice, and on the other a child who keeps making noises over the fence. South Korea would suggest the artilley bombardment was unprevoked but even the island residents recognise that it took place after South Korea military exercises in the area. The Island bombarded is disputed territory, who in their right mind conducts military exercises in disputed territory?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2...24/3074654.htm

For the sake of peace of mind of the rest of us, it is time the situation in Korea is normalised and the war concluded.

That will never happen with a Kim in power.

You are right about the fact that it's well past the time the divided peninsula should unite. But it cannot be under the jack boot of the Kim Klan .

Let's face facts... the weak kneed reaction to the sinking of the Cheonan by the ROK and the US emboldened them .The US pretty much ceded the Yellow Sea as a NORK /China lake .

The cadres in Beijing could do a lot if they were serious about it. But they rubber stamp all that has happened . The NORKS are part of their greater strategery of extending their sphere of influence around their perimeter .

I guess a US retreat from the region ceding hegemony to them could in the short term fix the problem.
I don't know what the Aussies would do under those circumstances. My guess is that some kind of accommodations would be in order.

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Originally Posted by tomder55

I don't know what the Aussies would do under those circumstances. My guess is that some kind of accomodations would be in order.

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Accommodations, are you suggesting we accept more refugees? Not that the Koreans aren't welcome they have proven to be an industrious addition.

I don't think that making more noise than we already are would prove useful. It is no use protesting when neither side is listening. NK is driven by paranoia, they know they can't win that was proven over fifty years ago, but with a powerful ally like China, neither can they lose.

I think it is time a formal peace was declared and both sides encouraged to demilitarise

Actually I was postulating on the possibility of Australia falling under the Sino sphere of influence.

You would agree with me that what you think is the solution will not happen until there is regime change in Pyongyang.

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Originally Posted by tomder55

Actually I was postulating on the possibility of Australia falling under the Sino sphere of influence.

You would agree with me that what you think is the solution will not happen until there is regime change in Pyongyang.

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I don't think we would want to do that. Australia and the US are close allies but what the US does isn't always in our interests. We are a trading nation and we trade with whom we please. At the moment China has strong demand, while the US doesn't buy our commodities

Yes, NK needs a serious change of attitude but I don't like the term regime change, it has connotations of the US forcing it as they did in Iraq. China will eventually lose its communist regime and when that happens NK will have no support. They are a rogue nation and probably of great concern to the Chinese because of their unpredictability. China doesn't want to be dragged into a war because of neighbouring pocket dictator

Maybe

By the way remember the Hillary ad during the campaign about the President's ability to answer the 3AM phone call ? What VP Biden called "Gird your Loins " time ?

Well this incident occurred apx 1Am yesterday . The President's staff did not wake him for an incident that requires Security Council response until 4 AM . So the question Hillary raised has been answered.

Update The US will conduct exercises in the disputed Yellow Sea with the ROK Navy . Earlier this year when the Chinese warned us against it we backed down ceding international waters to the Chinese.Chinese Maj. Gen. Zhu Chenghu said in July that "if the United States truly wants to take into account the overall interests of the Sino-U.S. relationship, then it must on no account send its USS Washington to the Yellow Sea." He called the area "sensitive."
U.S. sends carrier to Yellow Sea for exercises near Korea - Washington Times
The USS George Washington carrier group is deployed there.

Question asked at Belmont Club

If the US doesn't find a way to deter Kim then is both non-proliferation;and the security guarantees by the US dead ?

Richard Fernandez ,who authors the cite suggests that the surrounding nations would quicky move to join the nuclear club.

Then he states :

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One cannot imagine Julia Gillard, for example, declaring nonproliferation dead. She is too politically invested in the fiction to readily embrace a contrary fact. New Zealand is probably in the same case. For the foreseeable future, nonproliferation will be openly dead only to North Korea, Pakistan, and Iran. All the rest will treat it as live even though it is moldering at the table at which it has sat immobile, inarticulate, the dishes placed and taken away from it like offerings before a waxen figure. Much of the world will cling to the hope it will speak again even if it has not spoken for some time, simply because they cannot bring themselves to accept the alternative.

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Belmont Club Korea
In your comments you say the ties that bind between our 2 nations are too strong . But what happens if the US goes into this retreat from the world mode that so many want ? Would Red Julia allow you to defend yourself by any means necessary including nukes ?

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Originally Posted by tomder55

update The US will conduct exercises in the disputed Yellow Sea with the ROK Navy . Earlier this year when the Chinese warned us against it we backed down ceding international waters to the Chinese.Chinese Maj. Gen. Zhu Chenghu said in July that "if the United States truly wants to take into account the overall interests of the Sino-U.S. relationship, then it must on no account send its USS Washington to the Yellow Sea." He called the area "sensitive."
U.S. sends carrier to Yellow Sea for exercises near Korea - Washington Times
The USS George Washington carrier group is deployed there.

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It would make good sense for the US not to provoke the incident further. Why does the US need to carry out exercises in such a provocative way? Just because they can? By doing so they provoke not only NK but China. What would the US do if China carried out exercises in the Caribbean?
The days of gunboat diplomacy are over and the US should realise it

Quote:

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Originally Posted by tomder55

Question asked at Belmont Club

If the US doesn't find a way to deter Kim then is both non-proliferation;and the security guarantees by the US dead ?

Richard Fernandez ,who authors the cite suggests that the surrounding nations would quicky move to join the nuclear club.

Then he states :


Belmont Club Korea
In your comments you say the ties that bind between our 2 nations are too strong . But what happens if the US goes into this retreat from the world mode that so many want ? Would Red Julia allow you to defend yourself by any means necessary including nukes ?

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There is a great deal of fiction in all of this Tom and you need to recognise it. Yesterday no lesser personage than Krudd himself, now Foreign Minister, said that China and Australia already agree 85% so I can't see a shift moving us or Japan into the nuclear camp although nuclear power plants make good sense when you have large supplies of the raw material. I am not concerned about the little Red fox, her stay in the Lodge will be short. NK has offered to ship spent uranium so they can have a nuclear power program, the world should consider that move seriously as they should with Iran and stop this nonproliferation nonsense aimed at keeping the US the only viable nuclear power. Australia has the ability to advance in this area if it choices, it hasn't chosen because the US provides the umbrella which is a bribe to keep us out because no one can stop us acquiring uranium. By the way do you know we own very large tracts of US uranium?
http://media.smh.com.au/national/sel...a-2062836.html

You need to remember a nuclear NK is just as big a threat to China as it is to anyoneelse, why do you think they want to resume talks?

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Originally Posted by paraclete

It would make good sense for the US not to provoke the incident further. Why does the US need to carry out exercises in such a provocative way? Just because they can? By doing so they provoke not only NK but China. What would the US do if China carried out exercises in the Carribean?
The days of gunboat diplomacy are over and the US should realise it

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Russians did exercise in the Caribbean with the Venezuelans September . It is international waters ;just like the Yellow Sea.

The Chinese would and will exercise in the Western Hemisphere when their blue water fleet is ready ,and any protest we make would fall on deaf ears . As it is ,their littoral fleet is aggressively extending the Chinese sphere eastward and southward .

One could argue the timid response to the sinking of the Cheonan emboldened Kim to take this step .

Hello again,

It appears that the South Koreans WANT some action... Why? They're going to get their a$$ kicked. Seoul is just inside the demilitarized zone. It'll for SURE get run over.

What's up with that?

Plus, if war breaks out, are we going to plunge in? The world is a dangerous place.

excon

South Korea does not want action . Action is being forced upon them .President Lee Myung-bak's first command at an emergency meeting following the shelling was “make sure this doesn't escalate.”
North Sparks Korea Crisis - WSJ.com)

Had they acted resolutely in the spring then these continued provocations might have been avoided. Lee says the acts of aggression cannot be tolerated ,and then goes about tolerating them.

Now the USS George Washington is conducting exercises in the Yellow Sea. But had it done so this summer as originally scheduled ,perhaps the shelling of Yeonpyeong might not have happened. It is exactly this timid response to Kim's provocations that guarantee they will continue .

I also have to wonder what kind of mixed signals Jimmy Carter gave the Kim regime during his August visit.
Jimmy Carter - North Korea's consistent message to the U.S.
Although everyone here knows he's a washed up has-been looking for relevency and a rehabilitation for his disastrous term, he still carries the weight and prestige of once being POTUS .It implies the gravitas of speaking for the country when he travels the world undermining policy.

Carter claims that Pyongyang has sent a consistent message that during direct talks with the United States, it is ready to conclude an agreement to end its nuclear programs, put them all under IAEA inspection and conclude a permanent peace treaty to replace the 'temporary' cease-fire of 1953.” He says we should comply with the NORK demands or else.

But the only signal I see from them is violations of existing treaties ,threats of violence ,and warlike actions that have resulted in the death of military and civilian targets.

It appears that we don't need to do anything about Korea, the Chinese have done it for us, so Wikileaks has done something useful and told us about it, no doubt the Chinese are miffed
China ready to abandon North Korea: leak

Really ? Then why are they calling for a restart of the 6 party talks?

Hello again,

It appears that this leak/disclosure is doing some GOOD. Whaddya know about that?

excon

No it isn't.
The damage this will do to the American diplomatic efforts worldwide will take years to repair.

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Originally Posted by tomder55

Really ? Then why are they calling for a restart of the 6 party talks?

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In scrutable those Chinese but very good diplomats

It's obvious North Korea is run by a madman. There's no possibility North Korea will overrun the South. With today's technology, any troop movement southward towards Seoul will be immediately detected.

China's fear is that an attack by North Korea will result in hundreds of thousands, maybe millions, of refugees crossing into China.

The most likely scenario is the military, the only well-fed group in North Korea, will overthrow the ruling family, and make an accommodation with the West.

China will not be happy with this, but a unified Korea will be a boon to China's economy.

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Originally Posted by Athos

I
China will not be happy with this, but a unified Korea will be a boon to China's economy.

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Not only China's economy, it wouldn't do SK any harm either, think of the resources no longer needing to be diverted into defense. Reunification is a good thing which would free many Koreans from slavery. Decomunisation of the north would take a long time, however, weighted against the benefits to NK people it is of no account.

I don't think the Chinese would be unhappy with a unified Korea, there must be many advantages for them, not the least being the removal of the threat of war.