The Russians have ,before this week's pow-wow between President Obama and his Russian counterpart and puppet to Putin Dmitry Medvedev ,preemptively announced that they would open an air supply corridor to Afghanistan for the purpose of resuppling our troops .
What is the quid pro quo ? We may learn more this week ;but I suspect Ukraine may be a sacrificial lamb (Georgia has already been ceded to the Russian sphere) .Michael McFaul, the White House National Security Council's senior director for Russian and Eurasian affairs, told reporters that the President has no intention to use the Ukraine as a bargaining chip ;but I think the die is already cast and it is already a done deal. Future negotiations are to decide the fate of Poland and the Czech Republic. The fact that NATO restored full relations with Moscow which were suspeneded during the Rusky invasion of Georgia proves that the West will not stand firm against Russia's attempt to reestablish it's cold war empire.
The President has already stated that he dismisses as "outdated" the "old, Cold War approaches to U.S.-Russian relations" and believes that he can schmooze Medvedev... creating a wedge between him and Putin . He will have separate meetings between them and he hopes (or has fantasies ) to convince Medvedev to throw Putin under the bus. But I have seen no evidence that Medvedev has the ability to act independent of Putin.
The President has also indicated a willingness to put the anti-missile shield for Poland and the Czech Republic on the table... further proof that he is willing to bargain away our commitment to these countries if it serves his purpose . Maybe that will bring "peace for our time" ?
He also wants the Russian cooperation with Iran. That will not happen . The Russians profit mightly by being an arms supplier to the Mullahs.
On the table is nuclear arms reductions. The President wants this more than anything else because he believes it will secure his place in history if he can negotiate a new reduction in nuclear arsenals . Perhaps he will be in line for a Nobel Peace Prize .He thinks the betrayal of allies would be a small price to pay .
Indeed this may be his lifetime obsession. His missing Columbia University thesis was about Soviet Nuclear disarmament .
How important is this issue to him ? With START set to expire in December ,officials in the White House have indicated that they may try bypassing the Senate's role in ratifying treaties to fast track any agreement they reach with the Ruskies according to Jake Tapper of ABC News. .(this links nicely with ET's post about the "dictator President "... this certainly fits in well with his tzar mentality) .
Imagine that ! He now has a veto proof majority in the Senate, but still leaves open the option of ignoring the Constitutional requirements for treaties. Treaties have expired before without dire consequences. Both sides generally stick to the terms until a new agreement is hashed out. This phony urgency is either a poor understanding of how negotiations work; or is masking a hidden agenda. Does he think the Ruskies will launch... or ramp up their production of nuclear weapons in January if there is no treaty in place ? Perhaps he is planning a US reduction greater in scope than the Russians are willing to commit to for themselves... a defacto unilateral disarmament ? Who knows ?
The Ruskies have made no bones that they intend to link negotiations of START with the proposed deployment of a defense shield in Poland and the Czech Republic. Sorry guys... under the bus. It's never too early for the President to do legacy building . The only real question is how much he will give up to achieve this personal goal.
