Well, the NCIC FBI list has records of all convicted felons, those on parole, and those with warrants. The consolidated "watch-List" does not have the ENTIRE NCIC list on it, but people selected by the FBI from the list who have committed terrorist crimes or are known to have ties to terrorists. Read the link. Customs however, when you return, will check your name against NCIC and that is why you will be busted coming back in.
I have read so many answers to this question and they all vary - even completely contradict on another. Bottom line - it IS a risk. No one can guarantee you are not on a list except for TSA and they aren't about to tell you. But, just because you are on parole does not qualify you to be on a list - someone from the FBI, NSA, or other gov't agensy must nominate you for that list. I cannot answer your question concerning the difference concerning whether it was a federal or state crime. But since TSA is federal... I really do not know. I am interested in what you can find out.