Graham Allison author of
'Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’ Trap?' (a theory that says rising powers always challenge the big dog) wrote in 'The National Interest' an article entitled 'What Americans owe Ukraine'.
Imagine that two years ago—before Putin invaded Ukraine—someone had come to the US with a credible proposition to hobble Russia’s military threat to Europe for the decade ahead without the loss of a single American soldier. How much would Americans have been willing to invest in that initiative?
What Americans Owe Ukraine | The National Interest
The real question is what has this proxy war cost Ukraine ?
The real answer is too much.
Allison's definition of victory is fighting Russia until it will negotiate with Ukraine to end the war. But the only thing that is preventing that outcome now is the willingness of Zelensky and his patrons to go to the table.
Putin told Tucker Carlson that he saw the war ending in negotiations
Putin Calls on U.S. to ‘Negotiate’ on Ukraine in Tucker Carlson Interview - The New York Times (nytimes.com)
A gambit that the US rejects
U.S. Rejects Putin’s Latest Call for Ukraine Negotiations - The New York Times (nytimes.com)
A move Zelensky summarily dismissed
'Leave our territory': Zelenskyy defiant as he rejects calls for early peace talks | CBC News
Time to look to the future.
Looking at the battlefield we see that Russia at a horrible cost pushed back Ukraine forces and took Avdiivka .They took massive casualties ;and like Bakhmut and Mariupol before it destroyed the town in the process . Mariupol is a strategic city . The other 2 towns were in my view pyric victories .
What the battlefield tells me is that Ukraine cannot push Russia out ;and Russia cannot defeat Ukraine Avddivka had a population of a little over 32,000 at the beginning of the war. Kyiv had a population of almost 3 million . Russia has twice had conscription ;has used surrogate armies ;and emptied it's prisons to provide fodder for the front.
And Ukraine has not been without it's victories. They have put a major hurt on the Russian Black Sea fleet ;downing ships and forcing the Russian Navy to evacuate at Crimea's Sevastopol . Russia has at best a tenuous hold on the eastern provinces of Ukraine . How are they possibly the threat that the war party in Washington calls them?
Time to look beyond the battlefield to the horizon. Russia is not taking all of Ukraine. It is not even desirable for them to do so. They don't want to rebuild the nation.... while the US and the EU is chomping at the bit to funnel more monopoly $$$$ into a reconstruction. And forget about governing western Ukraine . They would face an insurgency as long as they occupied it. Russia has no more incentive to fight. The Russian parts of Ukraine have mostly been annexed . It is extremely unlikely that NATO would ever invite Ukraine into the alliance. And as long as Russia is warring they are dependent on the likes of China Iran to prop up their faltering economy. (with a hat tip to Clueless Joe's energy policies and out continued purchasing of nuclear material from Moscow
Ending Dependence on Russia’s Nuclear Sector (fdd.org) )
Negotiations are possible and desirable. Ukraine will not be in a better position than now to come to the table. Continued combat will further weaken them.
What can we do ? Instead of our rhetoric ;demanding total defeat of Putin ;bringing war crime charges etc ,we should call his bluff and use leverage on Putin and pressure on Zelensky to get negotiations started .
That would be responsible statecraft ;something I don't believe Quid Pro Joe capable of .