[tomder55]

In an interview with WSJ ,Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he was now ready to launch the long talked about "counter offensive".
He hedged his bets about expectations .

“I don’t know how long it will take,” he told The Wall Street Journal. “To be honest, it can go a variety of ways, completely different. But we are going to do it, and we are ready.”
Ukraine’s Zelensky: We Are Ready for Counteroffensive - WS


He has not received all the weapons he asked for .
“We would like to have certain things, but we can’t wait for months,” he said.
Zelensky acknowledged Russian air superiority on the front lines and said a lack of protection from Russian air power means “a large number of soldiers will die” in the counteroffensive.

He fears there are time restraints that he has to deal with . One of them being the coming US 2024 elections....
he feared U.S. elections next year could bring a less-supportive administration to power

Another being the uncertainty of a future NATO membership. He called on NATO to offer a clear path to membership for Kyiv.

The counteroffensive is a pivotal moment for Zelensky, a former actor and comedian whose leadership during the war has propelled him to global prominence. The outcome will shape the contours of Western military backing and diplomatic jockeying over Ukraine’s future.

Tomorrow is the anniversary of D Day a pivotal moment in the American sacred narrative
The Demon in America's Sacred Narrative - by Michael Vlahos (agonmag.com)

June 6 1944 we sacrificed in order to liberate . Today we sit on the sidelines vicariously cheering the sacrifice of Ukrainians to a similar sacred narrative that we have helped create and finance. Our goal is to give Russia a bloody nose . We are using Ukrainian proxies to achieve that goal. VE could not have been achieved we believe without America's sacrifice. We are counting on Ukraine's sacrifice for the fulfilment of our goals .

Ukrainians as a percentage of the population have losses comparable to what the US lost on both sides of the Civil War.

So maybe this upcoming offensive is more comparable to the desperate gamble that Lee took in invading the North and the finale of that invasion ;Picket's Charge. Lee truly believed his gamble was justified . He threw all his chips on the table knowing that the odds were strongly against success.

Ukraine is conducting probing attacks They suffered heavy losses and were pushed back

Russia Ukraine war latest news: Vladimir Putin’s forces ‘kill 250 Ukrainian soldiers’ in counteroffensive | The Independent

Russia has dug in with fortified lines and they outnumber Ukrainian forces. It is commonly known that to be successful in an offensive you need superior numbers against the defenders.

I can't predict the outcome . What is missing from the equation is negotiations . I fear that if the war is settled by military action it will not go well for Ukraine.


Ukraine’s Western backers recognize that Kyiv’s own offensive won’t end the war, but want it to demonstrate to Russian President Vladimir Putin the futility of his strategy of digging in and waiting for support for Ukraine to erode, a Western official said.

In other words we know that this counteroffensive cannot achieve a meaningful goal. The gamble is to risk another Ukraine army for the hope that NATO will give Ukraine full membership in July .

A more immediate concern for Zelensky is to secure a clear path to NATO membership at a summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, in July......
“If we are not given a signal in Vilnius, I believe there is no point for Ukraine to be at this summit,” he said. Asked whether he thought he would get such a signal, he replied: “I don’t know. I honestly don’t know.”

Bakhmut demonstrated the costs of a protracted conflict. Ukraine needs a decisive victory .........just as Lee needed in July 1863 .

[tomder55]

Samuel Charap served in the State Dept during the emperor's reign.

He is author of 'Everyone loses The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post Soviet Eurasia. '

He has penned an op ed in 'Foreign Affairs ....'An Unwinnable War'

An Unwinnable War: Washington Needs an Endgame in Ukraine (foreignaffairs.com)

He argues that neither side has the ability to win the war in the near future. I'm not so sure of that . But I do agree that Ukraine does not short of direct NATO troop deployment .

He writes that the US should be leading in looking for a negotiated deal .I agree.

While Western governments should continue to do all they can to help Ukraine prepare for the counteroffensive, they also need to adopt a strategy for war termination—a vision for an endgame that is plausible under these far-from-ideal circumstances. Because a decisive military victory is highly unlikely, certain endgames are no longer plausible. Given the persistence of fundamental differences between Moscow and Kyiv on core issues such as borders, as well as intense grievances after so many casualties and civilian deaths, a peace treaty or comprehensive political settlement that normalizes relations between Russia and Ukraine seems impossible, too. The two countries will be enemies long after the hot war ends.......

Since talks will be needed but a settlement is out of the question, the most plausible ending is an armistice agreement. An armistice—essentially a durable cease-fire agreement that does not bridge political divides—would end the hot war between Russia and Ukraine but not their broader conflict. The archetypal case is the 1953 Korean armistice, which dealt exclusively with the mechanics of maintaining a cease-fire and left all political issues off the table. Although North and South Korea are still technically at war, and both claim the entirety of the peninsula as their sovereign territory, the armistice has largely held. Such an unsatisfactory outcome is the most likely way this war will end.

He goes on to say the US could lead that effort .

The first step toward making this vision a reality over the coming months is to stand up an effort in the U.S. government to develop the diplomatic track. An entire new U.S. military command element, the Security Assistance Group–Ukraine, has been devoted to the aid and training mission, which is led by a three-star general with a staff of 300. Yet there is not a single official in the U.S. government whose full-time job is conflict diplomacy. Biden should appoint one, perhaps a special presidential envoy who can engage beyond ministries of foreign affairs, which have been sidelined in this crisis in nearly all relevant capitals. Next, the United States should begin informal discussions with Ukraine and among allies in the G-7 and NATO about the endgame.
In parallel, the United States should consider establishing a regular channel of communication regarding the war that includes Ukraine, U.S. allies, and Russia. This channel would not initially be aimed at achieving a cease-fire. Instead, it would allow participants to interact continually, instead of in one-off encounters, akin to the contact group model used during the Balkan wars, when an informal grouping of representatives from key states and international institutions met regularly. Such discussions should begin out of the public eye, as did initial U.S. contacts with Iran on the nuclear deal, signed in 2015.
These efforts might well fail to lead to an agreement. The odds of success are slim—and even if negotiations did produce a deal, no one would leave fully satisfied.

[tomder55]

The Slimes admits that leading Ukraine units fly NAZI symbols into battle .


Nazi Symbols on Ukraine’s Front Lines Highlight Thorny Issues of History - The New York Times (nytimes.com)


Hmm the compliant press is subtly crafting a different narrative about the war .

[tomder55]

The Nova Khakovka Dam across the Dnipro river , in Kherson region had an explosion and a breach yesterday . This dam provides water for Crimea and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant .


Both sides deny responsibility and accuse the other . This may be the "provocation " I mentioned on May 28

Ukraine began saying yesterday that Putin is planning a "provocation"; "massive incident " or to "simulate " an incident at the plant in the event that Ukraine makes headway in their offensive. The goal being to suspend hostilities to deal with the nuke crisis. They would blame Ukraine for the damage . They would use the pause to regroup and create new lines of defense .

NATO reality check . (askmehelpdesk.com)

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said there was no immediate nuclear safety risk at the plant due to the dam failure but that it was monitoring the situation closely. The head of the plant also said there was no current threat to the station.

Major dam breached in southern Ukraine, unleashing floodwaters | Reuters

photo of breach here

newslink.reuters.com/public/31702526


photo of dam before the explosion here

Kakhovka HES - Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant - Wikipedia


Early indications is that the goal of the Ukraine offensive is to take the territory near Zaporizhzhia in an effort to deny Russia a land route to Crimea . Then presumably they would blow the bridge to Crimea and isolate the area.

Interactive Map: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (arcgis.com)

[tomder55]

and of course the UN ;instead of mediating an end to the war ,is more concerned about the effect of the war on the climate

Exclusive: Accounting for war - Ukraine's climate fallout | Reuters

[tomder55]

Russians are fleeing their front defensive lines due to rising waters ,leaving behind equipment , engineered fortifications and mine fields. Ukraine says they pre-planned their counter attack around the contingency of the dam being destroyed and it will not affect their crossing of the river. Hmmm

[tomder55]

Brit PM Rishi Sunak is on his way to the US where it is certain that he and Quid Pro Joe will discuss the war in Ukraine.

He did not definitively blame Russia for the dam attack and destruction .He did say that IF it was Russia then it represented a " new lows " in Russian aggression.

UK PM on Kakhovka dam destruction: 'A new low' for Russia if it's responsible (yahoo.com)

The attack is being called "an environmental disaster .....and it is . The attack is being called a war crime.

Are dams legit targets in a war ?

Flashback May 16-17 1943

Royal Air Force pilots conduct a raid into the Ruhr Valley called Operation Chastise .
Special bombs that bounced ;back spin; and skimmed,at the water surface called 'Dambusters (codenamed ‘Upkeep’)' were designed for the attack. The target was 3 dams in the region.
Of the 3 ,2 were breached from the bomb explosions .

Once the dams were breached, there was catastrophic flooding of the Ruhr valley and of villages in the Eder valley. As flood water surged down the valleys, factories and infrastructure were badly affected. Twelve war production factories were destroyed, and around 100 more were damaged, with thousands of acres of farmland ruined.

What Was the Dambusters Raid in World War Two? | History Hit

Flashback 2017

US planes bomb Syrian Tabqa Dam .

The Tabqa Dam on the Euphrates River held back a 25-mile-long reservoir and was under the control of the Islamic State at the time. On March 26, 2017, a number of blasts hit the dam, knocking workers to the ground and causing crucial equipment to fail. The river suddenly could not pass through and the reservoir began to rise, sparking evacuations downstream.

While ISIS, the Syrian government and Russia blamed the US, then-Lt. Gen. Stephen J. Townsend called the allegations "crazy reporting" as the site was on the US's "no-strike list" of protected civilian sites.

US bombed Syrian dam risking tens of thousands of lives - NYT report - The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com)

US Officials however told the Slimes that "some of the largest conventional bombs owned by the US, including at least one BLU-109 bunker-buster bomb" was used in the attack.

The attack was conducted despite a military report warning not to bomb the dam as such an attack could cause a flood killing tens of thousands of civilians.

The Tabqa Dam on the Euphrates River held back a 25-mile-long reservoir and was under the control of the Islamic State at the time. On March 26, 2017, a number of blasts hit the dam, knocking workers to the ground and causing crucial equipment to fail. The river suddenly could not pass through and the reservoir began to rise, sparking evacuations downstream.

Flashback the Korean conflict .

US dropped 635,000 tons of explosives on North Korean targets . A number of dams were damaged/destroyed .Hwacheon Dam was destroyed .But in this case the Chinese had opened gates to slow US troop's progress ;and assaults to take control of the dam were not successful . The Navy strategically bombed the dam's middles gates to prevent the flooding.

Bottom line dams are infrastructure and despite the cries of it being a war crime, they are legitimate targets .

[tomder55]

The US announced yesterday another $2.1 billion package to Ukraine ....caching !!

Is this another 10% for the Big Guy deal ?

[tomder55]

NATO will meet next month at the 'in your face' to Russia Lithuanian Capital Vilnius.

I believe the Ukraine offensive was timed before the meeting because if the gamble works it would bolster their argument for NATO membership.

But NATO cannot even agree to include Sweden let along a nation that would immediately cause the invoking of NATO article 5.

Ukraine has made modest gains (liberating a handful of villages) but nothing close to what could be called a break through .

Admittedly my observations come from an almost total blackout of war news in the US where the deep state is hell bent on putting Trump away; and if your believe the press and political rhetoric , everyone else in the country is obsessed with transformers.
For all I know this frontal assault on Russian lines could be a diversion while a later attack on the flanks awaits .


NATO has been doing aerial war games leaving the impression that it is getting closer to actual intervention in the war. (‘Air Defender 2023’, scheduled to last ntil June 22)

NATO's Air Defender Military Exercise Tests European Preparedness Against Russia (foreignpolicy.com)

NATO Has Switched to War Footing With Russia (newsweek.com)

Brit papers are claiming that certain NATO nations like Poland are itching to get in the fight and drag NATO in with them.


This while Canada has announced that the modest 2% of their GDP they agreed on for NATO collective defense is too much for Canada to shell out .

NATO is getting ready to twist Canada's arm on defence spending | CBC News

There are other tension on the eve of the summit .

As mentioned ;Turkey(a nation that is a 'Mordred' of the alliance and probably should not be a member ) ;and Hungary have been blocking Sweden's membership .Hungarian PM Viktor Oban got offended about Sweden's criticism of his leadership . Turkey says Sweden harbors Kurds .
Meanwhile Poland is not happy with a Nordic NATO Chief as NATO will decide if Sec. Gen. Jens Stoltenberg should have another term.

NATO has other concerns too, Specifically ;their war against Russian ally Serbia never really ended.

Kosovo: NATO peacekeepers injured during clashes in northern Kosovo | CNN

There were local elections that ethnic Serbs boycotted . This resulted in wins for ethic Albanians . When Kosovo tried to install the new mayors ,violent protests erupted . Serbia has put it's military on high alert and sent troops to their border with Kosovo (which declared independence from Serbia in 2008)


Final thought .

Is US support for Ukraine in any way tied to Quid Pro Joe being bribed by Ukrainian interests of the Biden Crime Family ?

[tomder55]

Beginning to look like the prelude to Zelensky's Charge.

3 of 12 brigades have been deployed with the rest waiting to rush into any gap . So far Ukraine has not even reached the main line of Russian defenses and is taking heavy casualties.
Ukraine and Russian military work from the same book of doctrines that hasn't changed since the 1980s . They both know what the other will do.
Russia's drive on Kiev at the beginning of the war failed because they bunched their armor . I am hearing that Ukraine is doing the same thing .

[tomder55]

Caching !!!!! Pentagon finds more money for the Ukraine rabbit hole.

Pentagon says Ukraine accounting error revealed last month is much bigger than previously stated | CNN Politics

[tomder55]

Crimea is linked to Ukraine by a peninsula and a bridge from Kherson (the Chongar Bridge ) ;and a bridge from Russia(the Kirch Bridge( . The offensive has the land link to Crimea in it's bulls eye

Yesterday Ukrainian missiles struck the Chongar bridge ,




I don't know how much damage was done. If that route is disabled ;and they successfully take the land route ;and disable the Kirsh Bridge ;then the only way to resupply Crimea would be by sea .

Would the Russian risk damage to the Black Sea fleet ;or if Ukraine could effectively blockade the sea route then the Russians would find themselves in the same position that the Brits did during the siege of Yorktown.



I don't believe that Ukraine has the means to break the defensive lines going into Crimea. But the vulnerable position of the Russians could serve as a prelude to a negotiated end to the war .

[tomder55]

That is a best case scenario It is possible that in expending another army in this effort Ukraine makes itself vulnerable to another Russian offensive

Will the war end any time soon ? Not if Quid Pro Joe has his way .

When asked how long ;Quid gives the vague non-answer "as long as it takes " ;never really defining what "it" is .

But reading between the lines one can guess how long our committment to Ukraine is before Quid does an "Afghanistan" on Zelensky .

Quid needs to be the leader of the war party until January 2025 .
One way or another the war ends there . If the GOP candidate wins then funds for the war will dry up. If Quid wins he may posture that he is going to double down . But too many nations are longing for peace . If he cuts and runs like he is likely to do by forcing Zeklensky to the peace table then he can go back to his patrons and assure that US companies will get a big pay day for reconstruction work (don't forget to include 10% for the big guy)

[tomder55]

To be clear . The Russian narrative that they are fighting against Ukrainian Nazis is false. Equally false is the narrative that the West is defending Ukrainian democracy.
Those who question the war party are not Putin stooges . It would be too long a post to detail the political divide in Ukraine. In a short summary it is as west -east divide (Galacias v Novorossiya ) . What is happening now is Russia and NATO intervening in a Ukraine Civil War.

I liken the West's view as the same one the neo-cons had in Iraq. They would first over throw the Baath's and then transform the nation into a liberal western democracy. Turns out the cultural -religious divide was real in Iraq ;and the neo-cons did not understand Iraq culture or identity .

The same mistakes are being played out in Ukraine.

[tomder55]

How badly does Sen Lindsey Graham want to go to war against Russia ?

US Senate proposes that radioactive contamination of NATO territory caused by Russia be considered as attack on Alliance (yahoo.com)

[tomder55]

Pro war party ;pro Administration cheer leader CNN reports ;

"In its early phases, Ukraine's counteroffensive is having less success and Russian forces are showing more competence than western assessments expected, two western officials and a senior US military official told CNN. The counteroffensive is 'not meeting expectations on any front,' one of the officials said. According to Western assessments, Russian lines of dense have been well-fortified, making it difficult for Ukrainian forces to breach them. In addition, Russian forces have had success bogging down Ukrainian armor with missile attacks and mines and have been deploying air power more effectively. Ukrainian forces are proving 'vulnerable' to minefields and Russian forces 'competent' in their defense, one of the Western officials said... Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky admitted Wednesday that progress had been 'slower than desired.'"

Early stages of Ukrainian counteroffensive "not meeting expectations," western officials tell CNN - CNNPolitics

[tomder55]

caching ! another $500 million to the rabbit hole

$500 million in security assistance for Ukraine includes more armored vehicles - CBS News


Reports from the front say that armored vehicles are being destroyed by the Russian and abandoned by Ukraine armor units. These include both Bradley vehicles and Leopold tanks ;the best NATO has to offer. They are succumbing to minefields and bombs dropped with precision by drones. .... just like Ukraine was doing to Russian armament.


btw Zelensky just cancelled the 2024 elections in Ukraine and said he will remain President until the war is over.

[tomder55]

of note , The US held elections in 1864, in the middle of a civil war , even though until the eve of the elections it appeared that Lincoln would lose the election.

But not in Ukraine.

Ukraine to hold elections after war ends, says Zelenskyy / The New Voice of Ukraine (nv.ua)

This even though over 70% of Ukrainians allegedly support his reelection .

77% of Ukrainians want Ukraine President Zelensky to stay president — Ukraine news / The New Voice of Ukraine (nv.ua)

Remember when we were told that we have to support Ukraine because they are doing the hard work of defending democracy for us ? That has been the "bipartisan" consensus since the war began.

“Support for Ukraine has been bipartisan and bicameral, in both houses of Congress by both parties, and the American people support democracy in Ukraine,” Pelosi told AP. “I believe that we will continue to support as long as we need to support democracy ... as long as it takes to win.”
https://apnews.com/article/nancy-pel...0win.%E2%80%9D

[tomder55]

Ukraine appears to be sacrificing lives and western supplied equipment so far for little gain. The compliant press still parrots the official tale so a realistic assessment is hard to make.
What do we know ?
Here is a little tidbit rarely reported and certainly not on the compliant press outlets .

Back in April of last year Negotiators for Moscow and Kiev came close to a cease fire settlement. The deal according to National Security specialist ;and witness against Trump during the 1st impeachment hearings Fiona Hill ;
“Russian and Ukrainian negotiators appeared to have tentatively agreed on the outlines of a negotiated interim settlement,” “Russia would withdraw to its position on February 23, when it controlled part of the Donbas region and all of Crimea, and in exchange, Ukraine would promise not to seek NATO membership and instead receive security guarantees from a number of countries.”

The World Putin Wants - Fiona Hill & Angela Stent | Foreign Affairs

So why didn't the deal happen ? Because it wasn't in NATO's interest . Boris Johnson went to Kiev and talked Zelensky out of it.

UK PM Johnson says Ukraine peace talks are doomed because of "crocodile" Putin | Reuters


Since then of course positions have hardened .Now Zelensky says that only the recapture of the Donbas and Crimea is acceptable.

Western rhetoric calling for Putin's ouster ;calling him a war criminal and demanding he face charges for it make it less likely that a settlement can be reached . It is beginning to look more and more like total victory or defeat.

Maybe patience is in order. It took nearly 2 months after Operation Overlord to break out of the Normandy stalemate. But the conflict in Ukraine resembles WWI where offensives took a toll on troops for limited gains.

Russia's defenses resemble WWI construct . Unless the west is committed to sent ever more sophisticated weapons then it is likely to continue as Ukraine loses a generation of youth in the meat grinder.

Now there is talk of NATO supplying jet fighters ;longer range jets ,and cluster bombs . NATO nations will discuss this as well as Ukraine membership next week in Vilnius Lithuania .....a hop skip from Belarus where the Wagner Group was redeployed. Their leader Yevgeny Prigozhin is reportedly back in Russia collecting weapons .

Mercenary boss returns to Russia to collect money and guns - The Washington Post

[tomder55]

I have to repost this because Justin Trudeau should be ashamed

NATO is getting ready to twist Canada's arm on defence spending | CBC News

Canada has a huge border with Russia separated by the Arctic Ocean. If what everyone says is true about warming then soon it could be an invasion route. The Artic will be a major sea lane to be monitored and defended .

Canada is a G 7 member but spends the least of any G7 member for defense. It is in the lower tier of NATO nations ;comparable in GDP spending with Slovenia.