[tomder55]

The next few years will determine who wins the race. It is no longer a matter of who gets there first and plants a flag. Been there done that.

NASA's Administrator Bill Nelson warns that China can establish a foothold on the moon and establish mineral and resource rights.

"It is a fact: we’re in a space race," he told the outlet. "And it is true that we better watch out that they don’t get to a place on the moon under the guise of scientific research. And it is not beyond the realm of possibility that they say, ‘Keep out, we’re here, this is our territory.’"
Nelson went on to point to China's aggression in the South China Sea, where the Chinese government has routinely made claims of sovereignty over areas belonging to other countries.

NASA chief warns China could claim territory on the moon if it wins new 'space race' (yahoo.com)


They are ambitious with goals of landing on the moon ;space infrastructure and developing capabilities such as on-orbit servicing, building a space governance system.

China sets out clear and independent long-term vision for space - SpaceNews

Chinese crewed moon landing possible by 2030, says senior space figure - SpaceNews

China outlines pathway for lunar and deep space exploration - SpaceNews

The US has been focusing on such things as space tourism. That is all well and good . But we better get serious about the threat of China dominance in space.
Space Force Lt. Gen. Nina Armagno said in an interview “It’s entirely possible they could catch up and surpass us, absolutely “The progress they’ve made has been stunning — stunningly fast.”

Space Force Official Warns China Could 'Surpass' US In Ongoing Space Race (yahoo.com)

China poses increasing threat in military space race, top U.S. general says | Reuters

[tomder55]

NASA was the product of the Cold War competition. Bill Nelson ;NASA 's boss will have to move NASA back to that purpose.

Much of the US private space business is the result of the seeds NASA planted . The US private space industry is robust and getting better .

The problem is that the best of the group ;SpaceX ;with reusable launch, Starlink, and helping the US return to the moon and Mars ,is run by Elon Musk . The administration perceives him as an enemy and they could use the regulatory state as a weapon against him . There is a reluctance to fully embrace what SpaceX can contribute . Bill Nelson met with Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX’s president and COO to get assurances that Musk's Twitter interests will not be a distraction .

Bill Nelson: NASA Gets Assurance Musk's Twitter Purchase Won't Distract SpaceX (executivegov.com)

That means Musk is very much on their mind .

For now he is satisfied. He gets the challenge that China poses.

NASA chief says US 'better watch out' for China's moon goals | Space


We are running dangerously behind . China has prioritized their space program . We are running in first gear at best. Our goal is boots on the ground on the moon...maybe in a decade . Their goal is seizing strategic parts of the moon ;setting up mining operations ;and setting up strategic military bases . They plan to be there in 3-4 years .We have nothing similar planned . They don't have our technical capability yet . But their strategic planning is miles ahead of us .

[jlisenbe]

I'm not following the thinking concerning mining operations on the moon. Assuming it could be made to work, and it would be a titanic operation with all of the equipment having to be sent from earth and finding some way of operating in such a hostile environment, what would be done with the ore that would be produced? Processing it and getting it back to earth would be a similarly titanic undertaking. Where's the profit? What is up there that would be worth the expense?

[tomder55]

We are not talking about common Earth minerals . We are talking about rare earth minerals . 17 elements that are critical for 21st century electronics are rare on earth but believed abundant on the moon ;asteroids and on Mars (and the possibilities of new minerals discovered also exists ) . Most of the rare earth;'s are mined in China with great environmental damage done in their extraction.
China dominating the industry makes us vulnerable and dependent on them ;and not only for cell phones . It is a national security issue . It stands to reason that they would try to get a lock on resources outside the planet .

The moon is a key 1st target . Despite the need for a heavy lift rocket to get there ;the gravity is light. Heavier equipment like the ones used in Earth mining will not be needed in the process .It also will not be costly to return for the same reason. SpaceX and Blue Origin have cargo transporting craft on their docket .

Robotics will do most of the work. The transportation to and from is a matter of a few days .Communications is a matter of seconds . Robotics could almost be controlled by operators on Earth; definitely from low Earth orbit .

Profitability ?

Asterank tracks thousands of asteroids . They have set values on the 6,000 ones that NASA tracks . They determined that if only the top 10 asteroids were mined (closest to the Earth and highest potential for exploitation ),it would be an industry that would net $1.5 trillion profit .

Economics of the Stars: The Future of Asteroid Mining and the Global Economy (harvard.edu)

Space mining is coming . The question is will the US have a seat at the table.

Moon richer in metals than previously thought — NASA - MINING.COM

[jlisenbe]

Maybe. The problem with rare earth minerals is that the ore, as I understand it, contains but a tiny fraction of the target mineral, so the processing is extensive and consumes a huge amount of energy. Getting that equipment to the moon would be a fantastic enterprise. Getting the refined product back to earth would be equally fantastic as safely transiting our atmosphere to a safe landing is quite an undertaking. It would amount to the Apollo program times a thousand. Now evidently there are those who believe it can be done profitably. We'll see.

[tomder55]

I'm one that does and sees it as a future.

Long term the Earth would be a place of inhabitance and space the place where resources are extracted .


Long term; one asteroid tracked between Mars and Jupiter has minerals that are estimated in the $10 quadrillion range .(16 Psyche,)

Long range we will run out of easily extracted resources on this planet and will have no choice but to look elsewhere .

Not so long range is the fact that inside the inner solar system there are estimated to be 150 million asteroids with various degrees of potential resource exploitation.

The idea of getting equipment to the moon would be challenging if it meant assembly on Earth . Parts could be shipped direct to the moon or to a near earth or lunar orbit substation. (like NASA’s Lunar Gateway, a permanent orbital station)

Gateway | NASA


Launch costs are going down since private space entered the picture. They will go down more in the future.

I get it . This will not happen in our lifetime . But it will happen nonetheless.

[jlisenbe]

as minerals that are estimated in the $10 quadrillion range

Now comes the putting the bell around the cat's neck part.

The idea of getting equipment to the moon would be challenging if it meant assembly on Earth . Parts could be shipped direct to the moon or to a near earth or lunar orbit substation.

Current cost of putting one pound into earth orbit is about 10 thousand dollars. Now that's not to the moon and back, but simply into orbit which is a much easier proposition. Still, if we use that figure, and if you want to send a 100 pound box of food to this proposed mining operation, it will cost a cool million dollars...just for enough food for what, a day? And that doesn't include water which is not found on the moon. Multiply that by many times and you get the idea. I just think there are a fantastic number of problems to be solved when we haven't begun to touch, much less exhaust, the resources found on our own planet. And then there is the question of how this federal government will pay for it when that same government is hopelessly in debt and has not the slightest scintilla of spending discipline.