[zylstra]

Hi, all. I've thought about the BP oil spill more as of late and researched it a bit too. This is the situation: There is a team of about 30 or 40 knowledgeable BP and government techs and operational people receiving ideas from the public on how to plug the well. Due to the pressure of 10's of billions of dollars I've got to believe that BP has its best people attempting to plug the leak. So why isn't it plugged? The only two conclusions that I can come to are that either there is no under-three-month solution to plug the well (which I have difficulty believing) or they must not be get-it-done type of people, but just people who know what does and doesn't work with the current technology.

Let me explain the latter a little bit more. From my somewhat unknowledgeable position it seems to me that there must be plenty of good ideas for plugging the leak. So let's say they see an idea that might work. From their inculcation with bureaucracy they are inclined to test it, etc. but they do not have much intuition on whether it will work or not, they do not have a clearly appointed leader, and they do not have a personal sense of responsibility/urgency to fix it. They are “processless” and leaderless. They have no way to deal quickly with an aberration from the norm.

As for the conclusion that there is simply no solution, I can't believe it, but maybe it is the case.

Here are some links to articles about the public's ideas:
Gaston man says he can stop BP oil spill, seeks sit-down with Obama
4 Feasible Oil-Spill Ideas from the Public
CNN iReporters submit their ideas to solve the Gulf Coast oil disaster. CNN then asked Bill Nye to take a look.

Why do you believe the leak is not plugged? Do you have another explanation? Can you help me understand it?

Thanks for anything you can contribute.

[jmjoseph]

I have nothing.

You would think with all of the technology and equipment, that they could do a lot better than what they have done to date. It's a shame.

This needs to be a global effort. Somewhere out there is an answer that will get this ecological disaster under control. With all of the deep sea advances that have been made in the last 50 years, there has to be a solution to this fiasco.

But I could be way off on this one.

God bless the people of the Gulf coast.

[Wondergirl]

The well is a mile down and it's more than just oil that's pouring out. The pressure at that depth is incredible, and robots have to be used to do anything down there. I don't think there has ever been an oil spill undersea this deep -- which adds to the lack of knowledge on how to fix it. And there is a troubleshooting list of what to try, but, since it has never happened before, no one knows what will work (i.e. BP is clueless). AND, this wasn't supposed to happen.

[KISS]

Failure analysis may have been able to show a weakness and the BOP will have to be removed for the investigation.

Stacked BOP's could very easily provide redundancy.

One thing that makes it difficult for anyone to suggest anything as we don't know the limits. Diameter of the pipe. Pie material, wall thickness, oil pressure, pressure at that depth, temperature, hydrate formation etc.

Simple things. We also don't know about existing technology either.

Anything someone sends in is going to be a crap shoot.

In reality no one asked the question "What if the BOP failed"?

How it failed might be human error such as no batteries.

I've even sent in a couple of suggestions.

[Ap Zylstra]

I believe it is the fairly typical case of a technological application which does not have an answer to the problem it has created.

[jeannefz]

I have no technical idea of why the leak is not yet plugged. Whether it was arrogance, greed or both that allowed BP to attempt this drilling with no thought of a back up plan - somehow, this time, necessity / the mother of invention has failed. If one believes the Christian message that good comes from bad, there are two possible answers: 1) There is now a new level of consciousness in the U.S. about the cost of this country's addiction to oil which, perhaps, could not have been gained any other way; (also natural gas rigs are blowing up in Pennsylvania /Texas.) 2) American's belief that tecnology can fix any problem is being destroyed and the country as a whole may now have to acknowledge our total dependence on God. Certainly there are beautiful prayers all over the internet asking for everyone to join in.

[virginia]

Whatever the case, I agree that there *must* be a reporting hierarchy put into place. Right now it seems like a bunch of BP executives apologizing, and politicians criticizing and grandstanding. Action is needed. Definitive leadership, and reporting associates/engineers must formed.

I realize BP people are on it right now, but if that is the only group we are looking to, then a committee/check which holds the best interest of the safety environment must also be established. Can the Mineral Management Service get an overhaul? If not, create a new one.

We are the land of the executive, legislative, and judicial branches, after all.

If this can not happen immediately, then BP should be nationalized. Ted writes about it here: http://www.commondreams.org/view/2010/05/20-10

[virginia]

This topic was discussed on The Roundtable (ABCNews.com) this morning. Very good points were made, including some which would seem obvious (i.e. BP is accountable to it's shareholders, not the American public in general).

[zylstra]

OK, maybe I'll be putting words in people's mouths, but, from the list of answers,

1. A solution is too technically difficult to achieve within 3 months.
2. The people working on this (including Obama) are corporate and govenmental automatons incapable of innovative action.
3. Other

Let me tally the votes:

zylstra - 2
jmjoseph - 2
Wondergirl - 1
Keepitsimplestupid - ?
Ap Zylstra - 1
jeannefz - ?
virginia - 2

OK, I'll go with that.

[Curlyben]

There's a lot of coverage on the BBC's site that actually puts this all into context.
BBC NEWS | Special Reports | Oil disaster

While this is indeed a large leak it isn't the worst oil related disaster: BBC News - Gulf of Mexico oil leak 'worst US environment disaster'

There's a few ideas that have been suggested here: BBC News - The oil spill: Your solutions
Even the use of a MOAB (Massive Ordnance Air Blast): BBC News - Could explosives seal off the Gulf oil leak?

Interesting stuff.

[zylstra]

Great links, Ben.

To address your second comment, the numbers in the graphic on the page that you link to use 12-19,000 barrels per day as the estimate of the leak. We now know that a better estimate is 60,000 barrels per day, so within the last couple days it surpassed the Ixtoc 1 spill as the worst spill in the western hemisphere; and by the time BP is able to drill the relief wells it will have become the worse spill in human history.

[Curlyben]

True enough, but I was trying to put this latest disaster into a wider context. I think the estimate of 60k barrels is on the high side and BP have been successful, in their opinion, in mitigating some of the leak with their latest collection attempts.

Either way the Kuwait leaks of 1991 are an order of magnitude greater, but altogether easier to resolve.
While this is the greatest environmental disaster to hit the USA, it's not the worst the world has seen, yet..


Whatever happens they need to get this fully controlled and make serious responses to the multiple failures of this operation.
It's no good pointing fingers at their sub-contractors as, ultimately, the buck stops with them.

[zylstra]

Here's more evidence that my theory (that solutions exist, but they've got the wrong people) is how to explain the failure to stop the leak: Field Notes - Do-it-yourselfer says he can fix the leak ? and he's done it before .

[virginia]

I thought BP had tried that, with the cage they lowered on top, and with some success, but then when they tried to close the vents, it didn't work so well..

[excon]

Why is the Gulf BP oil leak not plugged yet?

Hello z:

Cause they don't know how to do it. EVERYBODY assumes they will plug it, because the alternative is TOO dark to consider... But, I'm considering it.

excon

[virginia]

@excon: It is better to light a candle than curse the darkness. Hope.

The lack of solution is more about the lack of leadership in finding one. More evidence of that is here: Getting life back? BP CEO on way off spill duty - Yahoo! News .

[virginia]

To my earlier point: "Can the Mineral Management Service get an overhaul? If not, create a new one."
... looks like they are creating a new one: Interior's Salazar terminates Minerals Management Service, creates new oil drilling regulator

[Curlyben]

Some further background into the whole sorry affair: BBC News - What do we know about the Deepwater Horizon disaster?

[Spartamo]

From what I have read, a relief well takes 2-3 months to drill, and BP was planning to drill 2 of them. It makes sense that had they began drilling them immediately, they would be done by now. Which doesn't answer much, but it s an under 3 month solution.