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    knthurima's Avatar
    knthurima Posts: 1, Reputation: 1
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    #1

    Oct 14, 2009, 12:06 PM
    Probability of 20ml of rainfall when 13ml chance is 87.7% and 16.9ml chance is 40.9%
    Farmers in District D know when to plant and harvest because rainfall follows a particular pattern which repeats itself every seven months. Weather records for this particular area indicate a normal distribution as far as rainfall is concerned. The records further reveal that the chances of at least 13.4 millimeters of rainfall have remained at 87.7%, while the chances of at most 16.9 millimeters remain at 40.9%. For the farmers to plant wheat they need at least 20 millimeters of rainfall, with what probability do they plant the wheat?? :confused: SHOW ME HOW TO WORK THIS OUT! THANK YOU!
    ROLCAM's Avatar
    ROLCAM Posts: 1,420, Reputation: 23
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    #2

    Oct 15, 2009, 05:06 AM

    This works out as follows:-
    (by extrapolation in reverse).
    (based on the heading details which varies from the details in the bulk of the question)

    Number

    1 13.0 87.7
    2 13.1 86.5
    3 13.2 85.3
    4 13.3 84.1
    5 13.4 82.9
    6 13.5 81.7
    7 13.6 80.5
    8 13.7 79.3
    9 13.8 78.1
    10 13.9 76.9
    11 14.0 75.7
    12 14.1 74.5
    13 14.2 73.3
    14 14.3 72.1
    15 14.4 70.9
    16 14.5 69.7
    17 14.6 68.5
    18 14.7 67.3
    19 14.8 66.1
    20 14.9 64.9
    21 15.0 63.7
    22 15.1 62.5
    23 15.2 61.3
    24 15.3 60.1
    25 15.4 58.9
    26 15.5 57.7
    27 15.6 56.5
    28 15.7 55.3
    29 15.8 54.1
    30 15.9 52.9
    31 16.0 51.7
    32 16.1 50.5
    33 16.2 49.3
    34 16.3 48.1
    35 16.4 46.9
    36 16.5 45.7
    37 16.6 44.5
    38 16.7 43.3
    39 16.8 42.1
    40 16.9 40.9
    41 17.0 39.7
    42 17.1 38.5
    43 17.2 37.3
    44 17.3 36.1
    45 17.4 34.9
    46 17.5 33.7
    47 17.6 32.5
    48 17.7 31.3
    49 17.8 30.1
    50 17.9 28.9
    51 18.0 27.7
    52 18.1 26.5
    53 18.2 25.3
    54 18.3 24.1
    55 18.4 22.9
    56 18.5 21.7
    57 18.6 20.5
    58 18.7 19.3
    59 18.8 18.1
    60 18.9 16.9
    61 19.0 15.7
    62 19.1 14.5
    63 19.2 13.3
    64 19.3 12.1
    65 19.4 10.9
    66 19.5 9.7
    67 19.6 8.5
    68 19.7 7.3
    69 19.8 6.1
    70 19.9 4.9
    71 20.0 3.7

    Conclusion a 20 millimeters has a 3.7%
    probability.
    Chris-infj's Avatar
    Chris-infj Posts: 31, Reputation: 4
    Junior Member
     
    #3

    Oct 15, 2009, 08:20 AM

    Let X be the amount of rainfall in mm

    It is given that X follows a normal distribution. What is not known is the mean and the standard deviation of rainfall.

    You're given = 0.877.

    1. Draw a bell-shaped curve and illustrate that.

    2. Then look up in a standard normal table and find the z value that corresponds to a p value of 0.877.

    3. Is it a positive z or a negative value? You'll know when you look at your drawing. In fact, it is strongly advised to draw a picture.

    4. So then you use the formula to obtain a first equation involving and .

    Repeat as from step 1. for the other piece of information = 0.409.

    Draw a picture for that too. Look up the z value corresponding to a p value of 0.409 in normal tables or use Excel Norminv function.

    You should get two simultaneous equations with and as two unknowns and solve to get them.

    Then armed with these values, you can calculate .
    Unknown008's Avatar
    Unknown008 Posts: 8,076, Reputation: 723
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    #4

    Oct 15, 2009, 11:15 AM

    Do we do these in the S2 paper?
    Chris-infj's Avatar
    Chris-infj Posts: 31, Reputation: 4
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    #5

    Oct 16, 2009, 07:07 AM
    Quote Originally Posted by Unknown008 View Post
    Do we do these in the S2 paper?
    S1 paper
    Unknown008's Avatar
    Unknown008 Posts: 8,076, Reputation: 723
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    #6

    Oct 17, 2009, 08:15 AM

    Ok...

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