[Galveston1]

I just read an article by Gary North that says the US and Allies have an armada in the Persian Gulf, and that there is a news black-out in Western countries. What have you who are careful observers heard about it? The article paints a very bad picture.

[tomder55]

Considering the fact that there is a planned war games with the Indian navy in October ,and also recently completed exercises with the French and UK navies in the Atlantic (Operation Brimstone );along with the existing deployments of the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Peleliu carrier groups ,it is possible that there is a build-up . There are reports that the USS Ronnie Reagan ,the Teddy Roosevelt and the Iwo Jima are on the way . I can only confirm that the Lincoln and Peleliu groups are already there .

It is possible that an Iranian blockade is being considered.

[Galveston1]

considering the fact that there is a planned war games with the Indian navy in October ,and also recently completed exercises with the French and UK navies in the Atlantic (Operation Brimstone );along with the existing deployments of the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Peleliu carrier groups ,it is possible that there is a build-up . There are reports that the USS Ronnie Reagan ,the Teddy Roosevelt and the Iwo Jima are on the way . I can only confirm that the Lincoln and Peleliu groups are already there .

it is possible that an Iranian blockade is being considered.

I respect your opinion. What do you see as consequences if such a blockade is done? North paints a pretty grim picture, and I would like to see some other informed opinions.

[tomder55]

More on exercises :

On Aug. 31, the U.S. and Britain finished five days of naval exercises in the Central and Southern Arabian Gulf. According to the U.S. Navy, the mobilization, called “Exercise Goalkeeper,” focused on “command and control in locating and tracking specific vessels deemed to pose a threat to Coalition nations in the Gulf region. The exercise also allows Coalition teams to board the vessel and practice the procedures for handing them over to Coast Guard ships.”

So the build up could be just a coincidence or ramping up pressure on Iran without taking action

I have to think about the ramifications of a blockade and get back to you . The dynamic changed a little with the Ruskie invasion of Georgia. On the surface it would impact their ability to import refined gas more than their ability to export oil. But it would I'm sure have a huge impact on the price of oil .

This Gary North guy was a Y2K alarmist so I think he is prone to a little bit of the chicken-little syndrome. It really is not unusual for us and our allies to conduct joint exercises. The extra force in the region could also just be normal rotation... 2 in 2 out. My guess is that there would be no support for a blockade ;that President Bush is riding his time out and that the EU would not participate in such a move ;and that the Ruskies would block it in the UNSC.

But if I have additional thoughts I'll get back... I'll ask some people I know who have more knowledge about such things.

[tomder55]

some factors to consider
The Bush Adm has been pretty silent about Iran since the Ruskie attack on Georgia. We also know that UN sanctions are not going to happen because of the Ruskie veto ability.After the Ruskie invasion Assad of Syria rushed to Moscow to get marching orders ;the Iranians did not.

VP Cheney is in the region and I would not rule out unofficial negotiations between him and the Ruskies or even Iran . This week the US handed to Iraq's control an area that the MEK ,an anti-Iranian group ,had been operating out of. There are reports that the Maliki government will not give them safe haven to operate anymore.

That move as well as the silence from the Bush administration could mean that we are no longer ramping up the pressure on Iran. My guess is that this is part of a deal made to stop Iranian interference in the internal affairs of Iraq.

But still unanswered in the equation is the continued defiance by the Iranians over their nuke program and if the Bush administration has decided to punt on the issue until the next administration is in place .

And emerging as an even bigger potential problem in my book is Iranian terrorists (Hezbollah) setting up camp in Venezuela ;especially since Venezuela is a hub for human smuggling into the United States.But I hear nothing from our political class about this. Instead they like the EU will pass a meaningless resolution demanding sanctions on Iran... and will do nothing about it. I think Gary North knows this to be true ;but is interested in selling more gold coins to his audience.

[excon]

What do you see as consequences if such a blockade is done? North paints a pretty grim picture, and I would like to see some other informed opinions.

Hello Gal:

A blockade is an act of war. If the dufus does it, all HELL will break loose. He probably WILL do it. He really is pretty stupid.

excon

[tomder55]

Ex Given that the existential threat is to Israel ; if Israel attacks Iran before the new year would you support it ? And would you support US efforts to assist them?

[excon]

Hello tom:

No. Not until we KNOW that they're about to get a weapon. And, we don't know that. It's true, I don't trust that the dufus would tell the truth.

I DO believe, however, that the dufus IS setting up to attack Iran in his last days, weapon or not. He just wants to give the finger to the world.

excon

[tomder55]

The Israelis did not wait for Saddam to get a weapon ;and last year they did not wait until Syria got one. Were they wrong to be proactive ?