[Skell]

Such a sharp increase in the jobless rate is a sure sign the answer is yes!

Bloomberg.com: U.S.

BBC NEWS | Business | US unemployment rate reaches 5.5%

[Credendovidis]

Already more than a year... Problem was that hardly anyone wanted to admit that...

With all the damage to the economy as a result of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the many major examples of big business dishonesty, and the recent bond crisis there was no way this could be prevented !

;)

[progunr]

Yeah, and if you think it is bad now, just wait and see what happens if the dems win this election.

They will have to invent a new word, to describe the dreadful condition this nation will find itself in, once the Trillion Dollar Spending plan Obama has gets into gear, the word "recession" would look like a "slight downturn" in comparison.

Do you supporters look forward to paying more taxes?

[magprob]

Yeah, and if you think it is bad now, just wait and see what happens if the dems win this election. Do you supporters look forward to paying more taxes?

The dems have to be elected and they have to raise "real" taxes so the money supply can shrink thereby causing this monster inflation tax to subside. That is the blueprint for the American economy. That is how the ponzi scheme is played.
Either you pay the inflation tax or you pay real taxes. In any event, you going to pay them taxes. Been happening since 1913.

[BABRAM]

Yeah, and if you think it is bad now, just wait and see what happens if the dems win this election.

They will have to invent a new word, to describe the dreadful condition this nation will find itself in, once the Trillion Dollar Spending plan Obama has gets into gear, the word "recession" would look like a "slight downturn" in comparison.

Do you supporters look forward to paying more taxes?

Huh? Even McCain admitted it would take him two terms to repair Dubya's economic disaster. However the problem for McCain in trying to distant himself from the president is that he's actually using Bush's failed blueprint. Of course everybody despises being taxed. However, sending soldiers halfway around the globe isn't financed from a money tree sprouting on the White House lawn.

Do you supporters look forward to paying more taxes?

I'd prefer to auction off Dubya's Crawford Texas ranch first.

[magprob]

That money tree is located at 33 Liberty Street in Manhatten's financial district... by the way.

[excon]

Yeah, and if you think it is bad now, just wait and see what happens if the dems win this election.

Hello prog:

I don't know. Your conservative, George W. Bush never saw a spending bill he didn't like. He borrowed, and printed, and spent money like a drunken sailor. He inherited a surplus, and he leaves us with a HUGE deficit. We are in BIG trouble.

I'd be just a little bit embarrassed about that... In fact, I'd be SOOOO embarrassed, I don't think I'd be accusing the opposition of planning to do EXACTLY what your side did. But, that's just me.

Buy gold.

excon

[tomder55]

All the spin and silly prognostication aside... there is a definition of recession that has not been met . A recession requires 2 consequtive quarters of negative GDP growth .This has not happened . Not even close. The last 2 quarters have registered GDP increases albeit very modest ones. What is happening is called a "soft landing " .That is just a part of the business cycle. You can't have uninterrupted boom forever.

The Fed was adjusting it's short term lending rate to address the possibility of a recession. However they have now indicated that inflation is their concern and not recession. Expect them to begin to tighten the money supply or at least suspend the reductions in the lending rates . I guess that is what Magprob calls a ponzi scheme. I call it managing the currency .

Here are the economic facts :
Retail sales increased 1 percent in May. The consensus forecast was plus 0.5 percent.

Retail sales excluding autos increased 1.2 percent. The consensus was 0.7 percent.

Sales were also revised, up substantially for March and April. Total retail sales are up at an 8% annual rate in the past three months while “core” retail sales are up at a 10.2% rate. It is impossible to be in a recession when retail sales are growing so rapidly.

All this happened even before those gvt. Stimulus checks went out .

Dude, Where's My Recession?: The Series - Capital Commerce (usnews.com)

As for the spike in unemployment rate consider this the Clintonoids bragged that they had achieved "full employment " when the unemployment rate had dipped to the level it now is at . An unemployment rate between 4 and 6 % is considered healthy.
Full employment - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
What surprised everybody was the sudden increase of a half percent.But what caused it ? The loss of employment occurred with younger workers... you know ;those minimum wage workers . Unfortunately it is the unintended consequences of raising the minimum wages
From 'Investors Business Daily' :

As it turns out, it seems the problem was that hundreds of thousands of youths poured onto the job market at the same time, thanks to the end of the school year. But many, if not most, won't find jobs. They've been priced out of the market.

The minimum wage was hiked 14% to $5.85 an hour last July. Next month, it will go up an additional 12% to $6.55 an hour. In July 2009, it's slated to rise 10.7% to $7.25 an hour.

If that sounds like a lot, the actual cost is much higher after you fold in taxes, benefits and Social Security that businesses pay on behalf of young workers.
It should surprise no one that youth unemployment is rising. When you raise the cost of anything, you'll demand less of it.

IBDeditorials.com: Editorials, Political Cartoons, and Polls from Investor's Business Daily -- Mean To Teens

So typically a do good policy backfires and hurts the very people it intends to help . Your government at work.

[progunr]

Hello prog:

I dunno. Your conservative, George W. Bush never saw a spending bill he didn't like. He borrowed, and printed, and spent money like a drunken sailor. He inherited a surplus, and he leaves us with a HUGE deficit. We are in BIG trouble.

I'd be just a little bit embarrassed about that.... In fact, I'd be SOOOO embarrassed, I don't think I'd be accusing the opposition of planning to do EXACTLY what your side did. But, that's just me.

Buy gold.

excon

I'm certainly not pleased with the mess GW has put us in, his actions are shameful at the least.

On the other hand, he knows that lower taxes are good for the economy, and the American Family, and it has been proven, when taxes go down, our economy goes up.

I say we need to reign in the spending, not increase it, and the taxes.

[excon]

All the spin and silly prognostication aside .... there is a definition of recession that has not been met . A recession requires 2 consequtive quarters of negative GDP growth

Hello again, tom:

What you say is true. The problem with that, is that the government keeps moving the goalposts. Actually, they don't move the goalposts - they just jimmy the score.

So, the numbers they're giving us are self serving at best. It's a shame that we have to do this ourselves, but when you can't trust government, we're going to have make those determinations on our own, I'm afraid.

In that vein, I ask you to look around in your own life. Over the last 5 years, how did a doubling of the prices of homes, a tripling of the price of stocks, a quadrupling of the price of oil, only result in an inflation rate of 3%?

If you believe that number, I have a bridge I want to sell.

Buy gold.

excon

[tomder55]

You have a point when talking about the inflation numbers. Oil prices for some reason are not included so they are skewed a little in my view. Also you are correct that the CPI measure was adjusted by you know who in the 90s . There is no doubt that the price of oil is a factor in the economy .

There are reasonable explanation for the stock rise (until Nov. of last year ) and the real estate bubbles... that also explains much of the rise of oil now.
The stocks rose because of the stimulating effect on the economy that the tax cuts brought.
The realestate bubble was part speculation and part a policy of the government for 2 decades to make the "American Dream" (home ownership ) more acessable to more Americans . (another one of those good intentions gone bad )
Finally ; with predictions of market downturns , low interest rates on securities and real estate peaking ,investors had not much of a choice but the park their money in commodities . I've tracked that gold you keep on telling me to buy ,and I still see a spike that has passed me by.

The country for some reason doesn't want to take the steps necessary to increase the oil supply in the face of increasing international demand. I frankly don't understand it . Even at high prices it is preferable to pay it to American suppliers than to the cartel producers like Russia Saudia Arabia and Venezuela. Becoming as close to Energy independence as possible must be a national goal .

[excon]

I've tracked that gold you keep on telling me to buy ,and I still see a spike that has passed me by.

Hello again, tom:

At the years end, when you see the price of gold at $1,200, you'll see the spike that you missed today. Then, when you see the price at the end of next year at $2,000, you'll really have missed the boat.

But, you keep on tracking, and I'll keep on buying.

excon

[progunr]

As to the oil issue, I'd be willing to bet that if we announced today, that the United States was going to pour everything we've got into finding, drilling, and obtaining our own oil, starting TODAY, that the price of oil would drop, dramatically, within a few short days, not in weeks, months, or years.

Just the threat of us being able to use our own oil, and stop sending our money to these terrorist supporting countries, would cause these nations to panic, instantly.

They would lower the cost of oil, just to try to appease the American public, in the hopes that with lower prices, the demand to obtain our own oil would not be as strong as it is now, and would slow down our efforts, and increase the period that they can keep enjoying the money we are currently sending their way.

What do you think?

[tomder55]

Yeah that and if we really wanted to screw the speculators and see them jumping out of windows... we could simultaneously announce a release of 25% of the strategic reserve that we purchased at a much lower cost in conjunction with tapping into our existing reserves and opening up restricted areas for exploration. .

[excon]

Hello again:

Yeah, speculators have taken a hit as the bad guys... But, they're not. Without them, the markets wouldn't work. They're really the GOOD guys. Besides, I'm a speculator, and you like me, doncha?

Nope, I have seen the bad guys, and he is us.

excon

[magprob]

A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investment operation that involves paying high returns ("profits") to investors out of the money paid in by subsequent investors.
Then, as inflation grows, the money people have invested or saved becomes worth less and less.
Then, the interest rates are cut, "to slow down the inflation," and the profits on the money invested or saved have been cut also. The bankers have taken the invested or saved money, used it to create more loaning money, to collect more interest, and kept the profit from the original money without paying the original interest rate back on that money.
It is like reaching into your private bank account with an invisable hand and swiping off the top of the pile. Extracting the cream from the top of the milk... if you will.
Maybe "ponzi scheme is not the correct word tom. How about this: A crooked federal reserve system manipulating the economy to the profit of its bankers and ultimatly, itself.
Yea, I like that terminology better.

[BABRAM]

The Associated Press: Inflation jumps by biggest amount in 6 months

Inflation jumps by biggest amount in 6 months

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER – 2 hours ago

"WASHINGTON (AP) — Soaring energy costs pushed inflation up in May at the fastest pace in six months. Food costs kept rising, too, and all signs are pointing to more bad news on gasoline, oil and food in the months ahead.

Costs for clothing and prescription drugs did drop last month, but consumer prices rose by 0.6 percent in all, the biggest one-month increase since November, the Labor Department reported Friday.

Food prices, which had taken the biggest one-month leap in 18 years in April, rose by a more moderate 0.3 percent in May, but that still left food costs rising at a 6.3 percent rate so far year, well above last year's increase. People are paying 10.2 percent more for milk than a year ago.

Consumers are getting hammered by a relentless surge in energy costs, pushing gasoline above $4 per gallon. The rising food prices partly reflect higher costs for transporting products to grocery stores.

Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, edged up 0.2 percent in May, an increase that was in line with expectations and helped to ease worries in financial markets that the Federal Reserve was inching closer to starting to raise interest rates to combat inflation pressures.

Clothing costs fell by 0.3 percent and the cost of prescription drugs dropped by 0.7 percent, but airline tickets jumped 3.2 percent, the biggest gain in more than six years, again reflecting the surge in fuel costs.

On Wall Street, stocks ended a turbulent week with a big gain, reflecting investor relief that at least the core inflation reading remained well-behaved. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 165.77 points to close at 12,307.35 on Friday.

Private economists cautioned that there would probably be more bad news on inflation in the months ahead given that this year's oil shock has gone on much longer than expected.

"Businesses that had been patiently waiting for oil prices to fall have run out of patience. We expect more of them to start throwing in the towel and raising prices," said Kenneth Beauchemin, an economist at Global Insight, noting the announcement by Dow Chemical Co. late last month that it was raising prices by up to 20 percent.

These developments have raised alarm bells at the Federal Reserve, which is now indicating that its biggest concern has changed from worries about a possible recession to fears about higher inflation.

In a speech Monday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the Fed will "strongly resist an erosion of longer-term inflation expectations," comments that raised concerns in financial markets about interest rate hikes.

Many economists, however, still believe that the weak economy and rising unemployment will keep the central bank from actually raising rates until later this year.

"Fed members are now focused on the potential that inflation expectations are rising which indeed would be a truly worrisome event," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors. "Thus, we will likely see continued speeches telling everyone how the Fed is on guard against any potential inflationary issue."

But Naroff said he believed there would be an extended period when the Fed will be "jawboning" against inflation.

So far this year, consumer prices are rising at an annual rate of 4 percent, compared with a 4.1 percent increase for all of 2007.

Core inflation, excluding energy and food, is rising at an annual rate of 2 percent so far this year, down from an increase of 2.4 percent for all of last year. However, many economists said they expect core inflation to begin rising as the prolonged rise in energy costs starts shows up in other areas.

The energy increases have pushed the nationwide average for gasoline up to a record of $4.06 and private economists believe that price will keep climbing through the summer driving season.

The combination of rising inflation and weak wage gains contributed to another drop in weekly earnings. After adjusting for inflation, weekly earnings for nonsupervisory workers were down 1.2 percent in May, compared to a year ago, the Labor Department said in a separate report. It marked the eighth straight month in which weekly earnings had fallen compared to a year earlier.

The increase in energy prices was led by a 5.7 percent jump in gasoline, the biggest one-month rise since last November, and gains of 0.9 percent for electricity, 10.4 percent for home heating oil and 5.6 percent for natural gas.

The 0.3 percent rise in food costs reflected a 1.5 percent jump in beef costs, the biggest in 13 months, and another steep increase in cereal and bakery products, which were up 1.6 percent."

[magprob]

Yea. Dem Dere consumer price jumps is what will eat you alive. 0.6% in one month. Well, all that really means is that the dollar's value dropped 0.6% in one month. If it keeps going, some of us will have a lot more toilet paper with pictures of dead presidents on it than others. That's a good thing since those with more of it will be pooping their pants more than us folks without much of it.

Buy Gold Now!
Small gold coins to buy food with. Don't worry about buying toilet paper. I always wanted to wall paper my house with 100 dollar bills.

[BABRAM]

If McCain's elected the White House is going to become the Out House. Might as well start storing the corncobs after making the ethanol. :)