Science Friday: Congratulations, We're Dinosaur Killers
By Devilstower
Fri Oct 26, 2007 at 05:22:51 AM PST
Sixty-five million years ago, a large rock came screaming in from space. Despite all the recreations that show an impressive fireball streaming overhead, the real deal probably took about two seconds from the moment it entered the atmosphere, to the moment it impacted the Caribbean Basin with a force greater than anything in our nuclear arsenal. There wasn't really time for anything to think "huh, look at that," even if there had been anything around capable of such a complex thought as "huh."
The common conception is that it was this falling stone that signaled the end of the dinosaurs and cleared the slate for the mammals to take center stage.
The truth was messier. Only a few million years before, an object of similar size had slammed into present day Iowa, but the number of known extinctions associated with that collision... was zero. It seems unlikely that the first collision would be absorbed without a blip, while the second would mark the end of an age. Actually, the end of the Cretaceous was a messy time marked by vulcanism, large shifts in sea levels, and changes to the connections between continents. The timing between the Yucatan collision and the mass extinction is too close to think that there was no effect,
but it may be that all those species were already looking over the edge of a cliff, stressed by the many changes in their environment. The asteroid simply gave them a push.
While the mass extinction event at the end of the Cretaceous easily gets the most press, it was not the only such event in geologic history -- and far from the most severe. A study by the University of York looked at several of the other extinction events. They found different engines driving these events, but one factor in common.
Of the five mass extinction events¹, four — including the one that eliminated the dinosaurs 65 million years ago — are associated with greenhouse phases, while periods of high diversity were associated with cooler conditions. The largest mass extinction event of all, the end-Permian, occurred during one of the warmest ever climatic phases and saw the estimated extinction of 95 per cent of animal and plant species.
"The long-term association has not been seen before, as previous studies have largely been confined to relatively short geological periods, limited geographical extents and few groups of organisms," says Professor Benton. "But the evidence is striking."
According to the record, it hasn't mattered why the temperature rose, only that it did. The result was the same -- a massive loss of species both on land and in the sea. If global warming and the associated changes are what really does in ecosystems, what does that say about our immediate future?
Global temperatures predicted for the coming centuries may trigger a new ‘mass extinction event’, where over 50 per cent of animal and plant species would be wiped out
...
future predicted temperatures are within the range of the warmest greenhouse phases that are associated with mass extinction events identified in the fossil record.
Even the 50% change is far more radical than the extinction event that marked the end of the dinosaur's rule -- and that would be the lower end of the change indicated based on previous greenhouse events.
We are shaping a different world from the one we have known. One that, in some distant future, may be populated by a panoply of new creatures that appear to fill the gaps. But for the near term, it's going to be a duller, less vibrant world, one whose milestones are marked out in terms of ecosystems unraveling and species going extinct.
The next time someone tries to shrug off global warming with some remark that "the planet has been warmer before," you might want to let them know that when it was, massive and widespread death was the result.