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    tomder55's Avatar
    tomder55 Posts: 1,742, Reputation: 346
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    #1

    Feb 25, 2017, 10:19 AM
    Trade Deficit
    Will Herr Donald's policies make things better or worse ?
    The Trumpsters were considering changing the rules on so called 'trans-shipped,or 're-exported ' items . Some items we export we first have to import. Well they floated the idea of calling all these items imports for the purpose of defining the trade deficit. As an example ,if we get a boat load of cars from Japan ,and then export half of them to Mexico or Canada ;they wanted to count the whole boatload as imports ,rather than only the ones that are sold domestically .

    This of course was book keeping games meant to show that the trade deficit was much worse than it was because they think the trade deficit is a bad thing .

    A trade deficit is a reflection of success ;not failure .A trade deficit reflects a country that is rich and can shop for it's goods where it want .It is no indicator that we are 'losing ' in trade as the Trumpsters portray it. We buy about $500 billion in trade more than we sell. What happens with those $$$$'s ? They return to the US as foreigner buy US goods or assets . The foreigners invest in America . Today 6 million Americans work in factories owned by foreign companies .They buy US stocks and Treasury bonds (which help fund all the liberal spending programs :) )We are in fact an attractive place for global savers to park their money.

    Why do you think that the trade deficit grows during good times and tends to be reduced during times of economic bad times ? The sure way to shrink the trade deficit is to have a severe recession .

    Now about that re:exporting ...If you go to south Florida there are very sophisticated redistribution warehouses that export to Latin American . Imports go into Florida ports (American workers handle the goods )then they get transported to the distribution centers (American truckers employed ) where they pick and pack them (more American workers employed ) and ship them (more American workers employed ) as exports .

    To illustrate the confusion of the Trump trade policy ;consider the Keystone Pipeline which is now on the fast track. The purpose of the pipeline is the transport Canadian imported Alberta oil to the refineries of Louisiana that are capable of refining the oil and then shipping it as export. Under the Trump proposal the exporting of the refined oil would not count . But the importing would be an indicator of a trade imbalance . And yet he fast tracked the pipeline ! His own actions illustrate that he really doesn't have a grasp on the realities of trade .
    Trump trade data proposal defies common sense, honest accounting | TheHill
    talaniman's Avatar
    talaniman Posts: 54,327, Reputation: 10855
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    #2

    Feb 25, 2017, 11:02 AM
    It worries me Tom when we agree, and completely in this case, but what's even more worrisome to me is why hasn't that, and other policy stuff, been explained to him while he waits for his cabinet and their teams to be put together? Herr Donald doesn't do a lot of study on his own, that fact is obvious.

    I don't think Paul and Mitch will go along with this fool, but what do I know? They haven't lifted a finger with his travel ban crap with makes even less sense.
    paraclete's Avatar
    paraclete Posts: 2,706, Reputation: 173
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    #3

    Feb 25, 2017, 03:41 PM
    Your definition of what is an import concerns me Tom, you fail to recognise that there is some value add in your own country and so want to distort the statistics. If an item is to be exported as you say, why does it land in the US in the first place, does not Canada or Mexico have ports. Even the transport of the item is a value add and as the item is counted on both side of the equation it isn't the reason for the trade imbalance. The reason is your country, via its multinational corporations, chose to manufacture goods in low cost countries rather than pay your own workers to do the job. You wanted NAFTA but failed to realise the impact, that you would actually export jobs. The fact is Tom the rest of the world wants to go on enjoying the benefits of low cost labour, only in america is someone trying to turn back the clock. You were once a progressive nation, but you have become regressive but don't worry, you will soon have a resurgence in employment as you build a giant wall to rival the great wall of China to keep the hoards of poor and disadvantaged out. Will you build it with chinese cement and chinese steel?
    paraclete's Avatar
    paraclete Posts: 2,706, Reputation: 173
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    #4

    Feb 25, 2017, 05:22 PM
    Tal, any person who is 70 years of age and been active in business understand basic economics, you buy and sell, you employ and pay and money is spent. Donald wants america to manufacture more because employment is an answer to poverty and employment in manufacturing deals with employment of the non service and less educated end of the economy. It's a great aspiration, but it doesn't deal with the real issues, innovation brought automation displacing these low end workers who have not been retrained. If economics worked the way it should these workers should have moved and taken up the jobs in agriculture so prized by foreign workers, but their focus wasn't on regressing to become peons. It is possible your politicians agree with the travel ban but it should have been extended to other trouble spots like Nigeria and Sudan, Libya and so forth. if you have unemployment then you can't afford immigration
    tomder55's Avatar
    tomder55 Posts: 1,742, Reputation: 346
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    #5

    Feb 25, 2017, 05:35 PM

    1. You wanted NAFTA but failed to realise the impact, that you would actually export jobs.
    your facts are lies . NAFTA was responsible for the creation of millions of jobs in the US. 200,000 export-related jobs are created annually by NAFTA
    talaniman's Avatar
    talaniman Posts: 54,327, Reputation: 10855
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    #6

    Feb 25, 2017, 08:01 PM
    I'm a steelworker and have seen technology take thousands of jobs, and steel production has gone up, not down, ever since. I understand that reality. I also understand a fellow that's 50 with kids, and a mortgage, all of a sudden losing his job, and life, AND health, and starting over ain't that simple as going to pick apples, and uprooting yourself. All the steel and mining towns are ghost towns now.

    What's even more idiotic about that travel ban is there is already extreme vetting, except in those European nations that have ACTIVE terrorists roaming freely.
    tomder55's Avatar
    tomder55 Posts: 1,742, Reputation: 346
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    #7

    Feb 26, 2017, 02:52 AM
    The travel ban did include those countries. They were on a list provided by the emperor's regime. Yes we have better vetting than the European countries ,but it's anyone's definition what 'extreme vetting' means. The reason Herr Donald's vetting was correctly stopped by the courts was because it was implemented haphazardly and allowed for the detention of people who had all the proper documentation. We'll see if 'extreme vetting '2.0 passed constitutional muster . There is no doubt that it is within his implied powers under Article 2 to make such a call.

    Pittsburg proves there is life after steel. Trump thinks he can reinvent the US steel industry by strong arming companies and using other government carrots (typical socialist).It won't work .Bush proved that tariffs and subsidies won't change the reality that steel can be made more efficiently and cheaper elsewhere . So what did Pittsburg do ? It reinvented itself and is now a high tech hub that specializes in robotics, health care, nuclear engineering, , biomedical technology, finance, education and services.

    NAFTA did not contribute to American job losses . That would be Asia . Trump dropped our participation in TPP ,an agreement that would've standardized trade and would've helped nations like the US that already have open markets by opening other markets that are closed . That being said , a review of NAFTA would not be a terrible idea because all 3 countries have both benefitted from it and have had issues with it .

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